QandO

April 20, 2004

The Iraq Factor
Posted by McQ

OK, let's see ... first we had O'Neil's book. Then Clarke and is book. Now Woodward. Result?

If the 2004 presidential election were being held today, would you vote for George W. Bush, the Republican, John Kerry, the Democrat, or Ralph Nader, the independent?

Bush 47%
Kerry 42%
Nader 7%
(VOL) Other 0%
(VOL) Neither 2%
(VOL) Would not vote 1%
DK/No opinion 0%

Why? Well one reason is this:

Do you support George W. Bush strongly or not strongly? (asked of Bush supporters only)

Strongly 84%
Not strongly 15%
DK/No opinion 1%

As opposed to this:

Do you support John Kerry strongly or not strongly? (asked of Kerry supporters only)

Strongly 65%
Not strongly 34%
DK/No opinion 1%

And these:

In your vote for president this year, will the situation in Iraq be one of the single most important issues, very important, somewhat important or less important than that?

One of the single most important 21%
Very important 60%
Somewhat important 13%
Less important 6%
DK/No opinion 1%

In your vote for president this year, will the US campaign against terrorism be one of the single most important issues, very important, somewhat important or less important than that?

One of the single most important 22%
Very important 63%
Somewhat important 13%
Less important 2%
DK/No opinion 0%

It seems regardless of how the voters feel about other issues, the above two seem to dominate.

And while when asked a more general questions such as:

Overall, who do you trust to do a better job coping with the main problems the nation faces over the next few years, George W. Bush or John Kerry?

Bush 49%
Kerry 44%
(VOL) Both 1%
(VOL) Neither 4%
DK/No opinion 2%

When it gets to specifics:

Who do you trust to do a better job handling the situation in Iraq, George W. Bush or John Kerry?

Bush 52%
Kerry 41%
(VOL) Both 0%
(VOL) Neither 4%
DK/No opinion 2%

So, as Dick Morris says, as long as the war, terrorism and Iraq dominate the news, no matter whether one might say it's "good news" or "bad news", it is, in the long run good news for Bush ... because it pushes the issues where Bush doesn't poll as well as Kerry off the front page.

Yes, I realize this is very early polling, etc. But it goes toward proving Morris's point. One has to wonder how Kerry's crew plans on wresting that advantage from Bush.

Apparently the "Viet Nam" ploy isn't working. Heaven knows what they'll try next.

TrackBack