QandO

May 25, 2004

The Five Steps
Posted by McQ

President Bush gave us 5 steps to putting Iraq on its feet and on the path to independence and democracy. In short form, extracted from his speech, they are:

The first of these steps will occur next month, when our coalition will transfer full sovereignty to a government of Iraqi citizens who will prepare the way for national elections. On June 30th, the Coalition Provisional Authority will cease to exist, and will not be replaced. The occupation will end, and Iraqis will govern their own affairs.
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The second step in the plan for Iraqi democracy is to help establish the stability and security that democracy requires.
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The third step in the plan for Iraqi democracy is to continue rebuilding that nation's infrastructure, so that a free Iraq can quickly gain economic independence and a better quality of life.
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The fourth step in our plan is to enlist additional international support for Iraq's transition.
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The fifth and most important step is free, national elections, to be held no later than next January. A United Nations team, headed by Carina Perelli, is now in Iraq, helping form an independent election commission that will oversee an orderly, accurate national election...The transitional national assembly will also draft a new constitution, which will be presented to the Iraqi people in a referendum scheduled for the fall of 2005. Under this new constitution, Iraq will elect a permanent government by the end of next year.

Of course the devil is in the details and the execution of those details, but Bush warned:

Completing the five steps to Iraqi elected self-government will not be easy. There's likely to be more violence before the transfer of sovereignty, and after the transfer of sovereignty. The terrorists and Saddam loyalists would rather see many Iraqis die than have any live in freedom. But terrorists will not determine the future of Iraq.

It will not be easy. It will be messy and we will see an upsurge in violence as we head inevitably toward June 30. As mentioned in another post, terrorists in general and al Queda specifically, have learned how to time headline grabbing events so they have maximum media impact. Here lately they've been able to cede that to us with the Abu Gharib debacle taking hours of network time and miles of newsprint. But rest assured the close we get to June 30, the more those who oppose an independent Iraq will dial up the violence and outrages.

Step 1, the June 30 handover, is a critical part of this plan. Previously I wondered about the timing (is it too soon, etc.). I'm absolutely convinced, now, that it is imperative that Iraqis begin to assume responsiblity for their country and the sooner the better. It is my opinion that it will drive many Iraqis from the sidelines and into taking charge of their lives and the life of their country.

Which takes us to step 2 ... security. Again, we can do that or they can do that. Which do you suppose will be the most effective? In the long run there's no question. In the short run we'll see huge problems with a green force that's most likely going to be heavily infiltrated with enemies of the US and and independent Iraq. But that will eventually shake itself out. We, the US, have to stay the course, do the best training possible to get them ready, and then step back and let them take full responsibility for their own security.

Step 3 is already under way, although reports of this part of the plan are scarce. One hopes that with Bush verbalizing this it will get more coverage than it now gets. Such coverage would give a progress report that's more positive and hopeful. The question is will anyone pay attention to the good news?

Step 4, believe it or not, is probably the most difficult to attain. And, frankly, I'm still not convinced it will provide any added utility. "International support" is a code phrase for European support. We aren't seeking Togo or Ghana's support ... we're seeking support from France and Germany. And as France and Germany go, so goes the UN. Its an attempt to put an veneer of "acceptance" on Iraq, and I wonder, given the anti-American sentiment now rampant in those two countries (and the UN), whether that's really a possibility. While "step 4" might be desireable politically, I don't think its a show stopper if it doesn't become reality.

Step 5 puts an "end-game" date on the situation. That doesn't mean we pack up and go home, but it should mean a significant reduction in our presence. We'll have to see whether the date given is "ambitious" or valid based on progress after the 30 June hand-over.

All in all, I like the fact that Bush gave a plan and, in essence a time-table. It remains to be seen if both are overly optimistic or on target. But regardless it will certainly give us a template for measuring our progress in meeting those 5 steps.

UPDATE (McQ): Oh, and to Bush's speech writers, for heaven sake, he's standing before the Army War College and uses a incorrect army unit designation? " 2nd Light Cavalry Regiment". No such thing boys and girls. Its the 2nd ARMORED Cavalry Regiment.

Sheesh.

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