QandO

June 14, 2004

Bush Hatred and Kerry...well, "Kerry Love" isn't quite right...
Posted by Dale Franks

Byron York notes that, at the big "Take Back America" rally, progressives--as angry at President Bush as ever--don't seem to be cottoning to their man, Kerry.

At a forum on the Iraq war, for example, there was obvious unhappiness with Kerry's positions. In particular, the overwhelmingly anti-war participants didn't like his plan to strengthen the U.S. presence in Iraq. "I hope he gets over this notion of sending more troops," said peace activist David Cortright. "I think that is a disaster. We need to abandon any notion of sending any more troops."

In fact, one of the few good things said about Kerry came from former CIA official Melvin Goodman — and he was talking about the John Kerry of 1971, not today. Back then, Goodman said, Kerry realized the real issues at stake when he opposed the war in Vietnam. "Kerry's got to go back to his speeches, the thoughts he had as a young man," Goodman said. "He's gotten far too conservative, far too conventional."

Elsewhere, throughout the conference, left-wing activists expressed their regrets that Kerry is not more "progressive." And to make matters worse, their misgivings about Kerry stood in vivid contrast to the wildly enthusiastic reception they gave to their true love, former Vermont governor Howard Dean.

In 1996, despite some rather strong feelings on the right about Clinton, Bob Dole's campaign was a failure. His major selling points were, "He's not Clinton", and "Bob Dole: Because its his turn". Frankly, that's not the type of campaign that brings out your supporters in droves, as Bob Dole learned.

Presidents, even polarizing ones like Clinton and Bush, start out with an enormous advantage. If you expect to topple them, you need to offer the electorate something they aren't getting from the current resident of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. Because, in the end, it's about turnout. You have to get your people excited enough about you to show up at the polls. It's not enough that they don't like the incumbent. They have to like you enough to take the time to go vote.

Today, Kerry has a similar problem. If in fact, Iraq is the pivotal issue of the war, then Kerry isn't giving his crowd much of a reason to vote for him. The Left doesn't want us to win there, or stay the course. They want us out, because they don't believe we should be there in the first place.

So, when Kerry says that he'll increase our troop levels there, or that failure in Iraq is not an option, that isn't quite the kind of thing that's going to energize his base. For those people, if the choice is a troop increase under Bush, or a troop increase under Kerry, then why show up at the polls at all?

So, Kerry has to hope that his moderate stance on Iraq will attract more undecided voters than it will lose base voters. That's a fairly iffy proposition.

If you look at the more recent polls, Bush is getting hammered a bit by the way things are going in Iraq. But, for many of the respondents, he's being hammered for not being tough enough. People who hold that opinion are highly unlikely to show up and vote for Kerry, on the basis that he'll deal out an adequate measure of punishment. And if the base doesn't show up because they don't think there's enough anti-war daylight between Kerry and Bush, then that simply doesn't bode well for Kerry. Those people might decide to stay home, but they aren't gonna turn out to be Kerry voters.

Moreover, Republicans are not sitting on their hands when it comes to Get Out The Vote activities. I've been to local Republican meetings at the county level, and the Repubs are serious about GOTV efforts. There are people in the California Republican leadership that privately tell me they think W will carry California this year. There are some well-placed people in the LA County Republicans that think W can win in LA. Republican GOTV committees aren't just working at the precinct level, they're organizing at the block level in many places.

Democrats, on the other hand, seem to be taking California for granted, secure in the feeling that California is now Leftish enough to swing their way simply as a matter of inertia. Or momentum. Or whatever. Maybe they're right, but I wouldn't want to bet an election on it after the way the Recall election turned into a debacle for the Dems.

Especially with a candidate that doesn't seem to be lighting a fire with the base. Maybe the Dems are gonna make a big grass-roots GOTV effort as the election draws near. But so far they are displaying a confidence here in California that simply might not be warranted.

By the end of the "Take Back America" conference, the people in the crowd told themselves that they must work hard for John Kerry, even though they did not seem terribly enthusiastic about the task. At times, it was hard to reconcile their lack of ardor for Kerry with their apparently unshakeable belief that he will win in a landslide. But that is what they appear to feel.

That's just foolish. If even you don't like your guy, what makes you think anyone else will?

The key issue is, of course, Iraq, and if things start looking like a success there, I suspect the Dems are going to wish they'd done a heck of a lot more GOTV work than they have. Because frankly, people aren't going to come out in droves to vote for a party hack like Kerry--who they don't really like--absent a compelling reason.

On the other hand, if things start looking successful in Iraq, all the GOTV efforts in the world probably won't be enough to save Kerry's campaign.

UPDATE (JON): This seems like an appropriate time to pass along this post by BoiFromTroy....

This evening, Los Angeles City Councilman Antonio Villaraigosa spoke at a meeting of the California League of Conservation Voters. [...] ...saying that running against an incumbent was difficult, unless it was an unpopular incumbent. Then he said this gem to applause:

"After all, let's face it. Is anyone excited about electing John Kerry or do you really want to defeat George Bush?"

That's a real vote of confidence from John Kerry's Campaign Co-Chairman.

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