QandO

June 30, 2004

The BattleGround State UR Project
Posted by Jon Henke

If internal economic conditions--e.g., the unemployment rate--have much bearing on November, it's probably worth watching those conditions in the battleground states.

So, based on the states Zogby defines as Battleground States--and assuming a drop in unemployment favors the incumbent--let's look at the latest data from the BLS....

WASHINGTON -.2 (Bush)
Apr: 6.3
May: 6.1

OREGON +.1 (Kerry)
Apr: 6.7
May: 6.8

NEVADA -.2 (Bush)
Apr: 4.3
May: 4.1

NEW MEXICO: -.1 (Bush)
Apr: 5.6
May: 5.5

MINNESOTA: +.1 (Bush. It's down almost a full percentage point this year, so it's hard to call this uptick a trend for Kerry)
Apr: 4.2
May: 4.3

IOWA: +.4 (Kerry)
Apr: 3.9
May: 4.3

MISSOURI: +.4 (Kerry)
Apr: 4.7
May: 5.1

ARKANSAS: +.2 (Kerry, though the longer trend is sharply down)
Apr: 5.6
May: 5.8

WISCONSIN: +.5 (Kerry)
Apr: 4.6
May: 5.1

OHIO: -.2 (Bush)
Apr: 5.8
May: 5.6

TENNESSEE: -.1 (Bush - rate has dropped more than 1 full point this year)
Apr: 4.9
May: 4.8

FLORIDA: -.2 (Bush)
Apr: 4.7
May 4.5

WEST VIRGINIA: 0 (Bush, as they are trending downward for the year)
Apr: 5.2
May: 5.2

PENNSYLVANIA: -.2 (Bush lately, but the longer trend is fairly flat)
Apr: 5.3
May: 5.1

NEW HAMPSHIRE: 0 (flat, short and long term)
Apr: 4.0
May: 4.0

The unemployment rate is by no means the only important factor, but it plays a part in how people perceive local economic conditions. The Unemployment rate trend in battleground states appears to favor Bush over Kerry 9-5, with one tie.

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