QandO

July 08, 2004

RINO Stampede
Posted by Dale Franks

NRO's Kate O'Beirne isn't happy about the prime-time speakers' line-up for the GOP convention. As far as she's concerned, it looks a bit too much like Nelson Rockefeller's party. Even worse, the convention will actually feature a tribute to ol' Nelson.

The lineup of primetime speakers at the Republican Convention predictably reflects its New York location by giving prominent spots to the hosts, Mayor Michael Bloomberg and Governor George Pataki. But those enjoying the coveted spotlight also pay tribute to New York's former Governor Nelson Rockefeller. Joining the hosts will be other mavericks and dissidents who represent a minority in Ronald Reagan's GOP. Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Arizona's Senator John McCain, and California's Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger will all be at the primetime podium. The only announced speaker who actually agrees with President Bush on major issues is Democratic Senator Zell Miller of Georgia.

The decision to showcase rogue elephants as representatives of the modern Republican party is not the mark of a self-confident party establishment. If the lineup is intended to make an overwhelmingly conservative party attractive to swing voters, it does so by pretending to be something it's not. The Republican party seems to habitually internalize the criticisms of its opponents. When the only Reagan Republican to enjoy a prominent supporting role at the party's convention is a Democrat, the GOP has a serious identity problem. The Kerry-Edwards ticket is liberal. The Boston convention will not be featuring Louisiana senator John Breaux in an attempt to pretend otherwise.

Conservatives are irked. Despite the fact that the Democrats are always frothing at the mouth about how Bush is »the most conservative president in our lifetimes«, it's just not true. Bush is a moderate republican. He's putting on a moderate convention.

That doesn't mean he's a moderate on every issue. Obviously, he's conservative on social issues; abortion, stem cell research, gay marriage. But he's certainly not a fiscal conservative. Not with steel, textile softwood, and now shrimp tariffs, as McQ wrote yesterday. Not with the "No Child Left Behind" Act. Not with prescription drug benefits for all senior citizens.

The convention he's putting on will hide guys like Jon Kyl, or Rick Santorum in favor of John McCain and Rudy Giuliani. And that's getting conservatives are ticked off.

The argument conservatives make is that perceived Rockefeller Republicanism will turn off base voters. That type of country-club republicanism nearly destroyed the republicans in the 60s and 70s, and it was only Ronald Reagan, they argue, and a return to unapologetic conservatism that made the Republicans the majority party.

There is much merit to that view. In such a close election, it isn't helpful to attract an additional 8% of undecided voters if it causes 10% of your base to stay home on election day.

A few weeks ago, I remarked that it has long seemed to me that a socially libertarian, fiscally conservative national party would be an unassailable majority party. Several readers disagreed vehemently. But, looking that the way the GOP convention is shaping up, it's not unreasonable to suggest that the president's re-election people seem to agree with me. And, it's interesting to note that the way to become a prime-time speaker at the GOP convention seems to be to oppose the President on the Defense of Marriage Amendment.

I suspect the president's campaign has two prongs. First, he wants an Iraq that appears to be improving, with a relatively happy and free population, and with US forces pulling light duty, instead of rooting out militias daily in Karbala. Second, he wants to show the American people that Republicanism is a big tent, with room for much moderation and disagreement.

Incidental to this, the Democrats appear to be putting together a far-Left screed-fest. That helps a moderate Republican convention look a lot more reasonable, too.

Yes, it may cause some short-term disaffection with his base, but I suspect that, post-convention, Bush will move a little bit back to the right.

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