QandO

July 26, 2004

Kerry's pitch
Posted by McQ

The Christian Science Monitor has an editorial today which I believe distills the upcoming race nicely:

The main purpose of this week's Democratic convention is to sell John Kerry as a commander in chief. His Thursday night speech, especially, will be the sales pitch of his career.

He's in a dead heat with George Bush, and while polls show him beating Mr. Bush on leading issues of the economy and healthcare, he doesn't seem able to pull past the incumbent "war president" on combating terrorism. Neither can he best Bush in the category of "strong and decisive leader," qualities desirable of a president in wartime.

Kerry must define himself as a war-time leader that is strong on defense. That's an uphill slog given his anti-war rhetoric during the Vietnam era and his rather liberal record as concerns defense matters during his Senate career.

Additonally he's rarely, if ever, shown leadership during that Senate career. No major committee chairmanships and an attendence record which would get him sent to the principle's office were he in school.

This is why you hear so much about his 120 days in Vietnam. It is all he has to point to in terms of "leadership" and "command". Even that has a multitude of detractors as well as questions concerning the Purple Hearts he received.

Mr. Kerry and the Democrats are well aware of their vulnerability. Terrorism and Iraq compete with the economy as the country's No. 1 concerns. They plan to use this week's convention to showcase the decorated Vietnam War veteran not only as a courageous war hero who understands combat from the perspective of the troops but as a strong leader capable of running a war. Security plays an unusually large role in this year's Democratic platform, with the party pledging to increase the military by 40,000 troops, and to stay the course in Iraq to prevent a failed state and terrorist nest.

By November, it is my prediction, the economy will no longer play well for Kerry (its not playing that well now), which leaves him with the "War Time President" issue and not much else. The Democrat platform really doesn't do a good job of differentiating Democrats from Republicans this time around.

The issue which remains at the forefront for all is 911 and Iraq. The War on Terror defines this election, and the only way John Kerry can win it when it comes down to the moment of truth in the voting booth, is to have convinced enough of the voters that he's a better leader and will make a better commander-in-chief than George Bush.

The CSM believe the following is the difference Kerry must make which will work toward establishing a better model of leadership and command:

Kerry claims he would work more closely with US allies than Bush has. In the lead-up to the Iraq war, Bush alienated several key allies, such as France and Germany. With the recent transfer of limited authority to Iraqis and the drive toward Iraqi elections, those tensions have slackened. Bush has also been forced to seek more allied help. Yet his record of ignoring allies in antiterrorism policies still hurts him, while Kerry would offer a fresh start.

Frankly I see a little selective memory here on the part of the CSM. Bush didn't so much alienate key allies as run into a bloc with significant interests in the contiuned existence of Iraq under Saddam. And as we've outlined here on Q and O, there are numerous reasons those supposed "key" allies wouldn't go along. Few of those reasons had to do with the US's interest in regime change in Iraq for security reasons. That, however, was the US's reason for prosecuting war against Iraq. What Bush refused to do was allow the perceived threat against the US and action to remedy that situation to be held hostage by our "key" allies. Whether you agree that his actions against Iraq were right or wrong, the point in question is critical to the role of a US commander-in-chief.

So the question one must ask, if this is the principle difference between Bush and Kerry on this issue, is will a Kerry presidency suddenly find those "key" allies coming to our side and our way of thinking? Kerry seems to think so.

I'd have to give the answer as a resounding "no" for reasons outlined and referenced above.

The CSM then asks a key question of its own which is a natural follow-on to the question I've asked:

A key question for the future, though, is whether Kerry would hesitate to take action if many allies objected to a proposed US course, such as bombing Iran's nuclear facilities. Bush waited months for the UN to approve war on Iraq, but then lined up only a few allies, and went in without the UN flag. How long would Kerry have waited? And how much will he tailor US interests to the interests of allies in future antiterrorist plans?

If I'm not mistaken Israel has already said they would bomb such a facility out of existence if built, but the question the example raises is crucial. Will Kerry hesitate to act in the best interest of the US if he's unable to garner the support of the UN or "key" allies?

I think all indications point to a yes to that answer. Again, statements he's made in the past and during the campaign indicate a belief on his part that we shouldn't act without that sanction. In my opinion that is a truly dangerous policy in light of the realities of the War on Terror. Our commander-in-chief must reserve the right to defend the US through unilateral action if necessary.

So Kerry has a tough sales job ahead of him. Regardless of his 30+ year old 120 day combat tour his record after that has been anything but awe inspiring in terms of leadership in general and leadership specifically in defense or security matters.

Kerry casts his approach to security as more "thoughtful" and "effective" than the president's. But that perhaps reinforces voter perceptions that he's not strong and decisive enough. His checkered Senate voting record doesn't help: "no" on the Gulf War during Bush I, "yes" on the Iraq War during Bush II, and "no" to $87 billion in military spending to support the war in Iraq.

He has explanations for these variations, but apparently they aren't getting through. As millions watch, he'll get another crack at that.

In fact his approach to security revolves more around consensus with "key" allies than facing the fact that his sole job as President and Commander-in-chief is to protect America regardless of the opinion or participation of "key" allies. It is my opinion that most Americans believe that to be very important point in terms of the policies of a commander-in-chief. It is this difference with Bush that Kerry has to overcome. He's yet to be able to plausibly make an argument which does so, and as The CSM points out, he'll get his big chance this week.

It'll be interesting to see how he does.

TrackBack