QandO

August 03, 2004

Kerry's job pay claim fact-checked
Posted by McQ

Last Thursday night, John Kerry claimed:

We're told that new jobs that pay $9,000 less than the jobs that have been lost is the best we can do. They say this is the best economy that we've ever had. And they say that anyone who thinks otherwise is a pessimist. Well, here is our answer: There is nothing more pessimistic than saying America can't do better.

But according to FactCheck.org:

Kerry continued to talk down the economy using dubious statistics. When he formally announced his candidacy in September 2003 he claimed the nation was suffering the "greatest job loss since the Great Depression," which we pointed out was not true. Now he's saying that the jobs the economy is adding are paying $9,000 less than the jobs they replace. That's not a fact, either.

Yet Kerry claims he’s running an optimistic campaign. One has to wonder how talking down a recovering economy relates to optimism, but then it is an election year.

Where’s this Kerry claim about jobs paying $9,000 less than before?

Kerry bases his claim on an analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data by the Economic Policy Institute. But the EPI figures don't support what Kerry said, because they don't actually compare new jobs and old jobs -- only broad averages for entire industries.

Mostly, though, economists simply can’t agree that the Kerry claim has any validity. Greg Valliere is typical of them:

Greg Valliere, chief political strategist at Schwab Soundview Capital Markets in Washington, was quoted by Bloomberg News as saying both sides are looking at the economy through a political prism.

``On the right, people are saying that these are wonderful new jobs, on the left they are not very good jobs,'' Valliere said. ``In truth, most economists would tell you they're not sure.''

Key to this is the information available:

Brookings Institution economist Barry Bosworth, a former Carter administration official, says Kerry's approach is "very misleading:"

“We shouldn't be in the business of trying to compare the rates of jobs lost to those gained because we just don't have the information right now to do it. Trying to measure the gross flow of jobs is really futile.”

Kerry said something else on Thursday night:

I will be a commander in chief who will never mislead us into war.

If the misleading $9,000 claim is any indicator, I'd have to say this promise is in serious doubt as well.

UPDATE (JON): It's also worth mentioning that Alan Greenspan has spoken out against this, as well...

There is evidence that jobs are being added at both ends of the spectrum, Greenspan said.

For the economy as a whole, he said, "it balances out. . . . We've not been able to find a significantly meaningful change in the quality of the jobs being produced relative to the quality of jobs being lost for the nation as a whole over the last year."

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