QandO

August 06, 2004

Zogby: No convention bounce for Bush either
Posted by McQ

The reason? Well, per Zogby, who by the way predicted a Kerry win months ago, the reason has to do with this unique election year:

But 2004 is proving to be a history-defying year in many ways. For starters, summer conventions are generally held in periods when about 20 to 25 percent of the voters are still undecided in national polls, and another 20 percent tell us pollsters that they could still change their minds.

Compare that with this year: Only 5 percent are genuinely undecided and only 3 percent of each candidate's supporters say they could still change their minds. There just is not the elasticity in 2004 to produce the kinds of dramatic bounces of the past.

Zogby uses a lot of "history" to support his position and his poll. I'm still not buying though. I'm still not convinced that everyone but about 5% who are going to vote have a) tuned in to this and b) have made up their mind. Because of Zogby's early prediction, I'm more inclined to discount his reasoning and wonder if the polls are now being made to fit the prediction. His sort of reasoning would certainly do that.

Obviously I could be completely wrong and Zogby may have it wired. The one true indicator, in my estimation, will be what happens to the numbers coming out of the Republican Convention. Flat "dead-cat" bounce like Kerry ... I may have to concede Zogby may be right. But any surge in the polls of any significance should have Zogby, et. al., relooking and rethinking their theory of the minute percentage of the undecided.

While Zogby trots out some good points based on his polling, its thesis remains that Bush has to change minds instead of convince people to vote for him. Obviously changing minds is more difficult than the latter. Again, I'm not convinced, based on history, that this is true, despite the polling from Zogby about the lack of "undecided" voters.

It would appear that the president is facing an uphill battle. He has to get his own ratings up, he has to knock Kerry's numbers down, and he will have to dampen turnout overall in an electorate that to date looks like it will go to the polls in great numbers.

Given all of this, don't expect any real bounce after the Republicans convene in New York later this month. Bush will have to persuade at least some on the other side of the divide that the economy is good, his leadership is solid, Iraq is successfully moving toward democracy without Americans in harm's way, and his second term will be better. He is also going to have to convince the overwhelming majority of those undecided voters that he is doing a good job and the country is indeed headed in the right direction.

If he can do all that in four New York City nights (with only three hours on prime-time TV), he will receive a candidate's traditional big bounce. I think that is a very tall order and expect that Bush will only bounce to a tie with Kerry.

We'll see. But it will at at least give some drama to what may otherwise be just another boring convention.

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