QandO

August 17, 2004

Is it 9/10 or 9/12?
Posted by McQ

Love him or hate him, Dick Morris is a pretty savvy guy when it comes to politics. he's of the opinion that the election is not Bush's or Kerry's to win or lose. He's of the opinion the guy who holds those cards is none other than Islamofacist nemesis Osama bin Laden:

MORE than any other single individual, more than George W. Bush, more than John Kerry, it is Osama bin Laden who will determine the winner of the election in November.

Why? Because it depends on whether American's actually believe we're at war or not. The war on terror is unlike any war we've ever fought before.

If Americans feel that they are at war, they will rally to Bush. By a strong majority, they feel that he is the best candidate to keep America safe, prosecute the War on Terror, and — even on his worst days — stabilize Iraq. But if they feel that the war is over or winding down, they are likely to vote for Kerry. By similar majorities, most surveys indicate that voters trust him more to create jobs, help the economy, lower health-care costs, stabilize Medicare and Social Security, reduce prescription drug prices, help improve education and protect the environment.

That's a resonable analysis. Which brings us to the OBL part in all of this, per Morris:

So, the key issue is whether America is at war or at peace. And Osama bin Laden has more to say about that than any other person. If he ratchets up the terror threat to the United States and has us looking over our shoulders and thinking twice before we fly, we will feel at war and will back Bush. But if he lets up and backs off for the election, we will revert back to our peacetime posture and likely elect the Democrat.

Again, a reasonable analysis which is essentially backed by poll numbers. Morris points to the impact of terrorism in both Israel and Spain as proof that it can indeed sway elections if timely. That brings us to the salient question. If Osama bin Laden is still kicking and planning, what will he try to do?

The current evidence suggests that he will tilt toward an aggressive posture. His recent threat to assassinate American political leaders and the evidence that he may be planning a terror strike to disrupt the elections here indicates that he is planning to become more aggressive as election day nears.

I'd agree that seems possible. I noted the March 2004 meeting of top terrorists in Pakistan yesterday. It was much like the Jakarta meeting which took place before 9/11. So it is certainly possible something could be in the works.

My bet is that it will help. While many will criticize the president for failing to prevent the attack, the immediate reaction will be to rally around the White House and to grasp that we live in a dangerous world and that Bush's superior commitment to fighting terror effectively is the way to go. While nations like France and Spain can be counted upon to react to a terror strike by surrendering and running for cover, the likely American reaction would be quite the opposite — just as Israel's has been.

I agree with Morris. I hope it doesn't happen, no matter who wins the election, even if its Kerry. But in a strict and dispassionate analysis, I'd have to agree that it would more likely than not help Bush's reelection. It would again change the calendar to 9/12.

But this year, I think that bin Laden will remind us frequently and graphically that we are at war. And I think that may re-elect George W. Bush.

I think so too. Our enemies have underestimated us in just about every war we've ever fought. And in the case of the Islamofascists, their religious bent has indocrtinated them to believe the worst about the "decadent west". It holds the US to be a paper tiger, even while it the previous claw marks are healing.

If bin Laden wants to join the ABB crowd, he'd best sit quietly in his cave and behave, or its going to be "four more years" of hiding out ... if he lasts that long.

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