QandO

September 03, 2004

Inside the TIME Poll
Posted by McQ

Disclaimer: I'm not big on gross poll numbers, especially this early in a campaign. But I do think they're useful to look at for trends. That's why the specifics of the poll are usually more interesting to me than the gross numbers. Depending on the specifics, those gross numbers can be fairly solid or pretty soft.

The specifics of this poll are as follows:

25% of registered voters cited the economy as the top issue, followed by 24% who cited the war on terrorism as the top issue. The situation in Iraq was rated the top issue by 17% of registered voters, moral values issues such as gay marriage and abortion were the top issue for 16% of respondents, and health care was the most important issue for 11% of respondents.

TOP ISSUE - Economy: 25%

Specifics:

1) 47% trust President Bush more to handle the economy, while 45% trust Kerry.

2) Survey respondents were split on the President’s handling of the economy. Almost half (48%) said the approved of Bush’s handling of the economy, while 48% said the disapproved.

TOP ISSUE - War on Terrorism: 24%

Specifics:

1) 57% trust Bush to handle the war on terrorism, while 36% trust Kerry.

2) Almost two thirds (59%) said they approve of how President Bush is handling the war on terrorism, while 38% disapprove. Last week’s TIME poll found 55% approved of Bush’s handling of the war on terrorism, while 40% disapproved.

TOP ISSUE - Iraq - 17%

Specifics:

1) 53% trust Bush to handle the situation in Iraq, while 41% trust Kerry.

2) Half (50%) of those surveyed approve of the way President Bush is handling the situation in Iraq, while 46% disapprove. In last week’s TIME poll, 48% approved of the way Bush was handling the situation in Iraq and 48% disapproved.

3) Have the United States’ actions in Iraq made the world safer? Almost half (45%) think the United States’ actions in Iraq have made the world safer, while 45% think the world is more dangerous. In a similar TIME poll taken Aug. 3 – 5, over half (52%) said the world was more dangerous, and 38% said the world was safer.

4)Was U.S. Right Going to War with Iraq? Over half of those surveyed (52%) think the U.S. was right in going to war with Iraq, while 41% think the U.S. was wrong to go to war.

TOP ISSUE - Moral value issues (such as gay marriage and abortion) - 16%

Specifics: None given

TOP ISSUE - Health care 11%

Specifics:

1) 48% trust Senator Kerry to handle health care issues, while 42% trust Bush.

Other issues:

Providing strong leadership: 56% said they trust Bush to provide strong leadership in difficult times, while 37% said they trust Kerry to provide leadership in difficult times.

Commanding the Armed Forces: 54% said they trust Bush to be commander-in-chief of the armed forces, while 39% said they trust Kerry.

Understanding the needs of people: 47% said they trust Kerry to understand the needs of people like themselves, while 44% trusted Bush to understand their needs.

Tax policy: 49% trust Bush to handle tax policy, while 40% trust Kerry.

Analysis: The Republicans, if this poll is accurate, have successfully framed the debate exactly as they want it with the War on Terror and Iraq right under a rebounding economy. Perhaps they'd prefer Iraq and the economy to swap places, but close enough for government work.

Probably the most interesting of all the stats are those concerning the economy, simply because this is an issue the Democrats feel they can gain traction on.
While the Democrats wanted it front and center (and that's where it is) they've done nothing to make the case that they'd do a better job. In fact, Bush takes a slight lead in that area. And the tax policy question may be part of that reason. Kerry's said he'd only raise taxes on the rich, but voters have heard that sort of promise before.

But the huge difference between the two candidates is easily seen in the next two top issues. In the War on Terror and Iraq, its really not even close. And the numbers for Bush are improving as indicated by the previous poll numbers noted.

However, the most significant numbers are about who the voters see as the best for commander-in-chief and as a leader. In both categories, Bush trounces Kerry. Is it the Swift boat guys? Is it his non-record in the Senate? Is it his anti-war activities. Is it his characterization as a flip-flooper? My guess is its all of them, plus some satisfaction with how Bush has performed.

Kerry leads in the tradionally strong Democrat issues, but they're the bottom two issues and his lead isn't particularly significant. Even the "understanding the needs of people" doesn't bring him a big spread.

Conclusion: Again, taking these numbers at face value and as a tool for analysis of the dynamics of the process by which people choose for whom they'll vote, I'd say that Bush is obviously making his case and framing the debate (as his numbers are improving or trending up) while Kerry seems to be moribund and trending downward.

Don't make too much of this right now, but these indicators point to the Bush campaign gaining momentum at the expense of the Kerry campagin. It obviously remains to be seen if the trends continue, but taking them at face value, Bush is in prime shape for reelection.

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