Free Markets, Free People

Dale Franks

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Economic Statistics for 23 Oct 14

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose 1.5 points to 37.7 in the latest week.

Initial weekly jobless claims rose 17,000 to 283,000. The 4-week average fell 3,000 to 281,000, a 14-year low. Continuing claims  fell 38,000 to 2.351 million.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose strongly from -0.21 to 0.47 in September.

The FHFA purchase only house price index rose 0.5% in August.

The Markit PMI manufacturing index flash for October fell -1.7 points from the final September reading to 56.2.

The Kansas City Fed manufacturing index fell -2 points to 4 in October.

The Fed’s balance sheet rose $7.3 billion last week, with total assets of 4.482 trillion. Reserve bank credit rose $15.2 billion.

The Fed reports that M2 money supply fell by $-39.3 billion in the latest week.

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Economic Statistics for 22 Oct 14

Consumer prices rose 0.1% in September at both the headline and core rates of the CPI. On a year-over-year basis, the CPI is up 1.7%, again at both the core and headline levels.

The MBA reports that, thanks to falling lending rates, mortgage applications rose a sharp 11.6% last week, with purchases down -5.0% but refis up 23.0%.

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Economic Statistics for 15 Oct 14

The Fed’s Beige Book report indicates economic growth—again—is modest to moderate. Slowing inflation and weak growth overseas is spurring concern about slower economic growth. There is even talk, based on this report, of another new round of Quantitative Easing.

Reinforcing the Fed’s concerns, Producer Prices for Final Demand fell -0.1% in September, while prices less food and gas—the so-called “core rate”—were unchanged. The PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services also fell 0.1%. Goods prices fell -0.2% and services prices fell -0.1%.  On a year-over-year basis, the PPI-FD is up 1.6% at the headline level and 1.8% at the core.

The Treasury reports that a revenue surplus of $105.8 billion in September pushed the FY2014 deficit down to $483.4 billion from $680.2 billion in FY2013.

The October Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations survey shows that businesses expect 1.9% inflation over the next year. This is down from 2.1% in the previous month.

The Empire State manufacturing index for October fell sharply to 6.17 from September’s 5-year high of 27.54.

September retail sales fell a worse-than-expected -0.3% in September. Sales less autos fell -0.2% and sales less autos and gas fell -0.1%. Analysts expected an overall increase of 0.3%.

The MBA reports that mortgage applications rose 5.6% last week, with purchases down -1.0% but refis up 11.0%.

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