Free Markets, Free People

Dale Franks

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Economic Statistics for 9 Feb 16

The Fed’s Labor Market Conditions Index slipped to 0.4 in January, From December’s 2.9.

Wholesale inventories fell -0.1% in December, while a -0.3% decline in sales kept the stock-to-sales ratio at 1.32.

The Labor Department’s JOLTS report indicates that December job openings came in at 5.607 million.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell sharply to 93.9 in January, from December’s 95.2.

Redbook reports that last week’s retail sales kept sliding downwards to 0.6% on a year-ago basis, from the previous week’s 0.8%.


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Economic Statistics for 5 Feb 16

The Labor Department reports a lackluster 151,000 net new jobs were created in January, but the unemployment rate fell to 4.9%. 502,000 people entered the labor force, bringing the labor force participation rate up a tick to 62.7%. Average hourly earnings increased by 0.5%, while the average workweek also increased 0.1 hours to 34.6 hours.

The nation’s trade deficit widened in December to $-43.4 billion, as exports continued to weaken by -0.3% while imports increased 0.3%. 

Consumer credit rose a much stronger than expected $21.3 billion in December.


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Economic Statistics for 4 Feb 16

Chain stores that are reporting sales results today say January was a weak month, and some are issuing cuts in quarterly forecasts.

Non-farm Productivity sank to an annualized -3.0% decline in the 4th Quarter of 2015, as unit labor costs rose 4.5%.

Factory orders sank a very sharp 2.9% in December following November’s downwardly revised 0.7%. Core capital goods orders fell -4.3%.

The Challenger Job-Cut Report’s layoff count jumped to 75,114 in January, mainly due to Wal-Mart’s announcement of 154 store closures.

The Gallup Good Jobs rate slipped from 45.3% to 44.7% in January.

Initial weekly jobless claims rose 8,000 to 285,000 The 4-week average rose 2,000 to 284,750. Continuing claims fell 18,000 to 2.255 million.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell -0.4 points to 44.2 in the latest week.

The Fed’s balance sheet rose $1.2 billion last week, with total assets of $4.484 trillion. Reserve bank credit fell $-6.4 billion.

The Fed reports that M2 money supply rose by $57.9 billion in the latest week.


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Economic Statistics for 3 Feb 16

The ISM Manufacturing Index slipped by -1.8 points in January to 53.5. The PMI Services Index also slowed, down -1.1 points to 53.2.

The MBA reports that mortgage applications fell -2.6% last week, with purchases down -7.0% and refis up 0.3%.

The ADP Employment Report estimates that 205,000 private sector jobs were created in January.

The Gallup U.S. Job Creation Index fell -1 point to 29 in January.


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Economic Statistics for 02 Feb 16

Motor vehicle sales moved higher in January, to a 17.6 million annual rate. Domestic sales rose to 14.2 million.

Gallup’s U.S. Economic Confidence Index was unchanged at -11 in January.

Redbook reports that last week’s retail sales growth continued to weaken to 0.8% on a year-ago basis, from the previous week’s 1.0%.


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Economic Statistics for 1 Feb 16

Personal income rose 0.3% in December, while consumer spending was unchanged. The PCE Price index fell -0.1%, but was unchanged at the core. On a year-over-year basis, prices rose 0.6% overall, while the core rate was 1.4%.

The PMI Manufacturing index rose 1.2 points in January, to 52.4.

The ISM Manufacturing Index was unchanged in January, at a contractionary 48.2.

Construction spending rose 0.1% in December, held down by weakness in non-residential construction.

The Gallup US Consumer Spending Measure indicates that Americans’ self-reported daily spending fell from $99 to $81 in January.


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Economic Statistics for 29 Jan 16

US GDP growth fell to 0.7% annualized in the 4th Quarter of 2015, according to the Commerce Department’s initial estimate. The GDP Price index fell to 0.8%.

The nation’s trade deficit increased 2.0% in November, to $-61.5 billion, as exports fell -0.1% and imports were unchanged from the previous month.

The Employment Cost index rose 2.0% in the 4th Quarter of 2015, with a year-over-year increase of 2.0%. The quarterly increase indicates that wage pressure might be rising.

The Chicago PMI jumped from 42.9 to 55.6 in January. I wouldn’t expect this volatile result to be reflected in Monday’s nation PMI.

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index fell from 93.2 to 92.0 in January.


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Economic Statistics for 28 Jan 16

December’s durable goods orders plunged -5.1%, and ex-transportation orders fell -1.2%. Capitol goods orders fell -4.3%. On a year-over year basis, durable goods orders fell -0.6%, ex-transportation fell -3.2%, and  core capitol goods fell -7.5%.

The Pending Home Sales Index rose 0.1% in December to 106.8.

The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index fell -1 point to -9 in January.

Initial weekly jobless claims fell 16,000 to 278,000. The 4-week average fell 2,250 to 283,000. Continuing claims rose 49,000 to 2.268 million.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose 0.6 points to 44.6 in the latest week.

The Fed’s balance sheet rose $6.5 billion last week, with total assets of $4.482 trillion. Reserve bank credit fell $-4.9 billion.

The Fed reports that M2 money supply rose by $8.5 billion in the latest week.


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