Dale Franks’ QandO posts
The June Employment Situation was weaker than expected, with 223,000 net new jobs created. The unemployment rate fell sharply to 5.3%, mainly due to 432,000 people leaving the labor force. The household survey also indicates an overall decline in employment, with 56,000 fewer employed than in May. The labor force participation rate fell sharply by -0.3% to 62.6%, the lowest since October of 1977. Average hourly earnings were unchanged, as was the average work week, at 34.5 hours. the previous two months of job growth were also revised down by -60,000 new jobs.
Factory orders continued to fall in May, declining by -1.0%, far worse than expectations, which were for an already weak -0.3%.
Initial weekly jobless claims rose 10,000 to 281,000. The 4-week average rose 1,000 to 274,750. Continuing claims rose 15,000 to 2.264 million.
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose 1.4 points to 44.0 in the latest week.
The Fed’s balance sheet fell $-15.9 billion last week, with total assets of $4.479 trillion. Reserve bank credit fell $19.3 billion.
The Fed reports that M2 money supply rose by $40.9 billion in the latest week.
Motor vehicle sales weakened in June, dropping -3.4% from May, but were still strong at a 17.2 million annual rate.
Challenger reports that Layoff announcements rose to 44,842 in June from 41,034 in May, well up from an unusually low 31,434 in June 2014.
ADP estimates that private payrolls rose a larger-than-expected 237,000 in June, against analysts’ expectations for 220,000.
Construction spending rose a solid 0.8% in May, well above the the analysts’ expectations of a 0.5% gain.
The PMI Manufacturing Index fell -0.4 points to 53.6 in June, indicating some slowing economic growth.
The ISM manufacturing composite index for June showed some acceleration in manufacturing, rising 0.7 points to 53.5.
Gallup’s U.S. Job Creation Index remained high in June, unchanged from the May reading at 32.
Gallup’s Payroll to Population Rate rose 1.0% to 45.5% in June, the highest rate since 2012.
The MBA reports that mortgage applications fell -4.7% last week, with purchases down -4.0% and refis down -5.0%.
Redbook reports that last week’s retail sales weakened to 1.6% on a year-ago basis, from the previous week’s already-weak 1.7%.
The S&P Case-Shiller home price index rose 0.3% in April, with a 4.9% year-over-year increase.
Chicago’s PMI sample remains surprisingly depressed, at a June index of 49.4, the 4th contractionary reading (sub-50) of the last 5 months.
The Conference Board’s June Consumer Confidence Index Jumped 6 points to 101.4.
The State Street Investor Confidence Index 6.2 points to 127.0 in June, mainly on confidence from US investors.
This week’s podcast covers our strange national hysteria, and the new duties imposed upon us by our judicial Overlords.
PS: This is the statue to which we refer in the podcast, and which I call “Arthur Ashe Beats the Children”.
Personal income rose a sharp 0.5% in May, while consumer spending rose 0.9%. The PCE Price Index rose 0.3%, overall and 0.1% at the core. On a year-over-year basis, the PCE Price Index is up just 0.2%, while the core rate is 1.2%.
The PMI services index is down sharply in June’s flash reading, falling to 54.8, vice 56.5 in the final May reading.
The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index rose in June, but still remains in negative territory at -9, compared to May’s -13.
Initial weekly jobless claims rose 3,000 to 271,000. The 4-week average fell 3,250 to 273,750. Continuing claims rose 22,000 to 2.247 million.
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose 1.7 points to 42.6 in the latest week.
The Fed’s balance sheet rose $7.2 billion last week, with total assets of $4.495 trillion. Reserve bank credit rose $8.5 billion.
The Fed reports that M2 money supply rose by $29.5 billion in the latest week.
The final revision to 1st Quarter GDP was to a -0.2% annualized decline, while the GDP Price index was revised to 0.0%.
Corporate profits in the 1st Quarter were revised down slightly to $1.891 trillion, up a year-on-year 9.0% from the initial report of 9.2%.
The MBA reports that mortgage applications rose 1.6% last week, with purchases up 1.0% and refis up 2.0%.
The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index moved further into positive territory in June, rising 5 points to a reading of 6.
Led by a -49% drop in aircraft orders, May durable goods orders fell once again by -1.8% overall. April’s number was revised down to -1.5%. Ex-Transportation orders rose 0.5%.
Redbook reports that last week’s retail sales remain soft, rising to 1.6% on a year-ago basis, from the previous week’s 1.1%.
The FHFA House Price Index rose 0.3% in April, with a year-on-year increase of 5.3%.
The PMI Manufacturing Index Flash fell -0.4 points in June, to 53.4.
New Home Sales continued April’s big gain, up 2.2% in May to a 546,000 annual rate. April’s gain was revised upwards to 8.1% to a 534,000 annual rate.
In which we hear the dulcet tones of Hillary Clinton’s speechifying. On the Podcast Page.