Free Markets, Free People

Dale Franks

Dale Franks’ QandO posts

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Economic Statistics for 27 Mar 15

The final revision of 4th Quarter GDP for 2014 was unchanged at 2.2% annualized growth. The GDP price index was unrevised at 0.1.

Corporate profits in the 4th quarter of 2014 came in at $1.838 trillion, up 2.9%, compared to the 3rd quarter’s 5.9% increase.

The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index rose 1.8 points to 93.0 in March.


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Economic Statistics for 26 Mar 15

The Markit PMI services index flash for March rose 1.8 points to 58.6.

The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index fell -5 points to -4 in March.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose 1.3 points to 45.5 in the latest week, the highest level since July, 2007.

Initial weekly jobless claims  fell 9,000 to 282,000. The 4-week average fell 7,750 to 297,000. Continuing claims fell 6,000 to 2.416 million.

The Fed’s balance sheet fell $-15.3 billion last week, with total assets of $4.481 trillion. Reserve bank credit fell $-7.9 billion.

The Fed reports that M2 money supply rose by $9.3 billion in the latest week.


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Economic Statistics for 25 Mar 15

The MBA reports that mortgage applications rose 9.5% last week, with purchases up 5.0% and refis up 12.0%, on lower interest rates.

Durable goods orders fell -1.4% in February, while orders less transportation fell -0.4%. On a year-over-year basis, orders are up only 0.6%, while ex-transportation orders are up just 2.3%.


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Economic Statistics for 24 Mar 15

Consumer prices rose 0.2% in February at both the headline and core levels, as energy prices made a bit of a comeback. On a year-over-year basis, the CPI is still down -0.1% overall, but is up 1.7% less food and energy.

Redbook reports that last week’s retail sales rose to a moderate 2.8% on a year-ago basis, from the previous week’s 2.7%.

The FHFA House Price Index rose a lower-than-expected 0.3% in January. On a year-over-year basis, the index is up 5.1%.

The Markit PMI manufacturing index flash for March rose 0.9 points from the February final to 55.3.

New home sales picked up sharply in February to a 539,000 annual rate from January’s 481,000. The median price still fell a sharp 4.8% to $275,500, despite a tightening of supply from 5.1 months to 4.7 months.

The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index fell sharply from 0 to -8 in March, as both new orders and backlogs declined.


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Economic Statistics for 23 Mar 15

The Atlanta Fed reports that the year-ahead inflation expectations of businesses were 1.7% in March.

Existing home sales rose 1.2% in February to a still-lackluster 4.88 million annual pace, though the year-on-year rise of 4.7% shows some strength.

The Chicago Fed National Activity index was -0.11 in February, while the January reading has been revised down to -0.10 from 0.13. The 3-month average is now negative, at -0.08.


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Economic Statistics for 19 Mar 15

Initial weekly jobless claims 1,000 to 291,000. The 4-week average rose 2,250 to 304,750. Continuing claims fell 11,000 to 2.417 million.

The nation’s current account gap widened sharply by $-14 billion in the 4th quarter, to $-113.5 billion. Relative to GDP, the current account deficit rose 0.4% to 2.6%.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose 0.9 points to 44.2 in the latest week.

The general business conditions index of the Philadelphia Fed Survey was little changed in March, down -0.2 points to 5.0.

The Conference Board’s index of leading indicators in February rose 0.2%, with the yield spread as the biggest positive indicator.

The Fed’s balance sheet rose $6.6 billion last week, with total assets of $4.496 trillion. Reserve bank credit rose $10.7 billion.

The Fed reports that M2 money supply fell by $-28.1 billion in the latest week.


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Economic Statistics for 18 Mar 15

The MBA reports that mortgage applications fell -3.9% last week, with purchases down -2.0% and refis down -5.0%.

The Federal Open Markets Committee left short-term interest rates unchanged today, at 0% to 0.25% for the Fed Funds rate target.

In today’s economic forecast, the Fed lowered it’s forecasts for both unemployment and economic growth, noting that growth is “moderating”. The Fed’s forecasts:

GDP
2015: 2.3 to 2.7%
2016: 2.3 to 2.7%
2017: 2.0 to 2.4%
longer run: 2.0 to 2.3%

Inflation
2015: 0.6 to 0.8%
2016: 1.7 to 1.9%
2017: 1.9 to 2.0%
longer run: 2.0 %

Unemployment
2015: 5.8%
2015: 52 to 5.3%
2016: 4.9 to 5.1%
2017: 4.8 to 5.1%
longer run: 5.0 to 5.2%

Essentially, the sub-par economic growth we’ve experienced since 2009 will continue for the foreseeable future.


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Economic Statistics for 17 Mar 15

Redbook reports that last week’s retail sales rose to a still-weak 2.7% on a year-ago basis, from the previous week’s 2.6%.

Housing starts unexpectedly fell a sharp -17.0% in February, to a 0.897 million unit pace, which is down -3.3% on a year-ago basis. Housing numbers have generally been weak for the last few months.


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Economic Statistics for 16 Mar 15

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey fell from 7.78 to 6.90 in March, on softening orders.

The Fed reports that industrial production rose 0.1% in February, while capacity utilization in the nation’s factories fell -0.5% to 78.9%.

The NAHB housing market index slowed by -2 points to 53 in March.

Foreign accounts were big sellers of US long-term securities in January, as net demand for US securities fell $-27.2 billion.


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