Free Markets, Free People

Dale Franks

Dale Franks’ QandO posts

Economic Statistics for 7 Dec 12

The following US economic statistics were announced today:

The Monster Employment index rose 2 points to 158 in November.

The Reuter’s/University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index a very steep 8.2 points to 74.5.

Nonfarm payroll employment in November increased by a lackluster 146,000 new jobs. Average hourly earnings increased by 0.2%. The average workweek was unchanged at 34.4 hours. Turning to the household survey, the unemployment rate fell to 7.7%, as 350,000 workers left the labor force, bringing the labor force participation rate back down to 63.6. At the historical rate of labor participation, the unemployment rate would actually have jumped by 0.2% to 11.4%. In all, the labor market remains moribund, as job creation remains weak and labor force participation remains at historic lows.

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Dale Franks
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Taxes, Spending, and the Fate of the Republic

The direction the country is taking bothers me. Increasingly, I see little hope for a bright prosperous future. Frankly, things cannot continue going in the direction they’re heading without a disastrous result.

Mark Steyn wrote earlier this week:

Generally speaking, functioning societies make good-faith efforts to raise what they spend, subject to fluctuations in economic fortune: Government spending in Australia is 33.1 percent of GDP, and tax revenues are 27.1 percent. Likewise, government spending in Norway is 46.4 percent, and revenues are 41 percent – a shortfall but in the ballpark. Government spending in the United States is 42.2 percent, but revenues are 24 percent – the widest spending/taxing gulf in any major economy.

This is unsupportable, by any measure, and should be seen to be so by anyone with common sense, irrespective of political party, but apparently is not. And it’s important to recognize that the reason revenues are at a historically high 24% of GDP—the historical average is around 18%—is that GDP growth for the last 4 years has been atrociously bad, and well below the 3% historical trend rate of growth.

In a rational world, we would make a decision to settle on a continuum somewhere between cutting government spending to 24% of GDP, and raising taxes to 42.2% of GDP, which would necessarily imply massive tax increases on the middle and, yes, even the lower class.

At the moment, however, it is impossible to cut spending to 24% of GDP. Not just politically impossible, though that appears to be true also, but I mean impossible impossible. The reason it is impossible is that 24% of current GDP will not cover the cost of mandatory entitlement spending and service on the national debt. More than 62% of government spending is mandatory spending on essentially social security and Medicare. Another 6% is interest on the national debt, and it’s only that low because 1) the Fed has been buying massive amounts of US treasury bonds, and 2) interest rates are historically low.

In other words, 68% of the federal budget is taken up by entitlements and debt service, alone. We could eliminate the entirety of the rest of the federal government and, at current rates of taxation, would still run a deficit.

At the current rate of spending, we can expect to add over $12 trillion dollars in debt over the next decade. To combat this, the president has requested an additional 1.6 trillion in new revenue, which he expects to gain by increasing tax rates on only the upper class. Even assuming, arguendo, that such a taxation plan would actually result in that much additional revenue—which it likely would not—we would still add an additional $10 trillion in debt.

And that, of course, assumes interest rates would not rise from their current low levels. A rise to the historical rates of interest would increase debt service costs from $250 billion per year to $650 billion per year, or approximately 15% of the budget.

Neither Congress nor the President are proposing a serious plan to balance the budget, which would require a politically impossible mix of massive budget/entitlement cuts, and/or massive tax increases on the middle and lower classes.

Absent such a plan, we will inevitably default on our debt, or hyperinflate our way out of it, both of which are merely two sides of the same coin. In either case, the dollar will lose its status as the world’s reserve currency, and the life savings of every single person in the country—except, perhaps, those embodied in some classes of hard asset—will be rendered worthless. There will be massive unemployment, and a high possibility of civil strife. Imported goods will essentially be unobtainable, and I’m not just talking about BMWs and Land Rovers, but everyday things we never even think about, like fresh fruit from Chile in the winter, or clothes from Singapore and Taiwan at any time.

The least damaging course of action would be a massive reduction in government spending. A more damaging course would be a massive increase in taxation. The most damaging course would be to do nothing but nibble at the edges of spending and taxation until we default, either formally, or de facto through hyperinflation. So far, we are set on the third course.

We are set on a path to completely destroy the currency and economic life of the Republic, and we will inevitably do so without massive tax increases, massive spending cuts, or some mixture of the two.

Meanwhile, in Washington, DC, the Fiscal Cliff negotiations—by which I mean "farce"—continue. Personally, I’m a charter member of the Let It Burn club. The Democrats have set up a narrative in which, no matter what happens, Republicans will get the blame. And yet, 18 months ago, what we’re now calling the Fiscal Cliff was unilaterally hailed as a wise, bipartisan, and far-seeing compromise that would set the country on the road to financial rectitude. And quite frankly, the president is giving every indication that he wants to go over the Fiscal Cliff, and that he can weather the political and economic fallout from it.

OK. Then let’s test that theory.

This is not a risk-free strategy. As Ace of Spades points out:

The Walk Away/Let It Burn option is growing on people. One cautionary note, though: This will provoke a serious constitutional crisis and may undo the Republic. So a soft Let it Burn could turn into a genuine collapse of the Republic.

Obama is a tyrant. If Republicans do not lift the debt ceiling, it is perfectly obvious what he will do, as he’s argued for it before: Like Putin, he will begin unilaterally asserting power he doesn’t have.

And what will be the recourse? Court, I suppose. Impeachment, sure, but Democrats will block conviction. So whether or not the President can suddenly assert sweeping power over the purse — sweeping aside the last real check on his power granted to the House of Representatives — will depend on the vote of Justice Go Along to Get Along Roberts.

President Obama has already asked for it. It’s that one exception I mentioned before: He is asking for unilateral power to raise the debt ceiling and no president should ever have that power.

Our constitution is clear that the money bills must originate in the house. Equally clear is the principle of Congressional supremacy, in that Congress may pass laws even over a presidential veto.  The debt ceiling is clearly a Congressional, not a presidential prerogative.

Congress, of course, has already amended the Constitution’s strictures in practice. For instance, the Senate takes House bills, say, for building a dam, and strips the original language, then loads it up with budgetary items. The House accepts them in conference. Additionally, we have operated without a federal budget—though one is required annually by law—since 2009. This is a…constitutional novelty.

But giving unilateral budgetary power to the president goes far beyond novelty. In my view, granting this power to any president will mark the end of the Republic, just as surely as the creation of the First Triumvirate marked the death knell of the Roman Republic.

The American people elected President Obama. It is only right that they should reap the full measure of the consequences of that decision. Ace is right. Going over the Fiscal Cliff may undo the Republic. But if that is true, then I’m entirely unconvinced that the Republic should be saved.

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Dale Franks
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Economic Statistics for 6 Dec 12

The following US economic statistics were announced today:

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index eased down -0.8 points to -33.8.

The Census Bureau’s quarterly information services survey reports that rose 0.3% in the 3rd quarter, up 2.1% On a year-over-year basis.

The Challenger Job-Cut Report indicates that November layoff announcements rose to 57,081 from 47,724 in October.

Initial claims for unemployment fell 25,000 last week, to 370,000. The 4-week moving average rose 3,000 to 408,000. Continuing claims fell 100,000 to 3.205 million. The weekly drop is being taken as an indication that all the Hurricane Sandy-related jobless claims have been fully unwound.

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Economic Statistics for 5 Dec 12

The following US economic statistics were announced today:

The MBA reports that mortgage applications rose 4.5% last week, with purchases up 0.1% and refinancings up 6.0%.

The ADP Employment Report is forecasting a rise of 118,000 net new jobs in November, down from 157,000 in October.

Nonfarm productivity was revised up to a 2.9% annualized rate for the 3rd quarter, while unit labor costs fell -1.9%.

Factory orders rose a stronger-than-expected 0.8% in October, and ex-transportation orders were up and even stronger 1.3%.

The ISM Non-Mfg Index shows activity picking up, as it increased nearly a full point to 54.7. 

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Economic Statistics for 3 Dec 12

The following US economic statistics were announced today:

Construction spending rose 1.4% in October, and was up 9.6% on a year-over-year basis.

Vehicle sales have been coming in strong today, with domestic sales at an annualized 11.7 million. Overall vehicle sales are set to top 15 million, the best rate since the 15.5 million annualized in February, 2008. Ford, Honda, and Nissan are posting better sales than expected, while GM sales are weaker than expected.

The Markit Economics PMI Manufacturing Index rose 0.7 points to 52.8, indicating increased manufacturing growth.

In contrast, the ISM Manufacturing Index dropped sharply from 51.7 to a weaker than expected 49.5, a below-50 reading that indicates economic contraction.

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Dale Franks
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Observations: The QandO Podcast for 02 Dec 12

This week, Bruce, Michael, and Dale discuss the Fiscal Cliff.

The direct link to the podcast can be found here.

Observations

As a reminder, if you are an iTunes user, don’t forget to subscribe to the QandO podcast, Observations, through iTunes. For those of you who don’t have iTunes, you can subscribe at Podcast Alley. And, of course, for you newsreader subscriber types, our podcast RSS Feed is here. For podcasts from 2005 to 2010, they can be accessed through the RSS Archive Feed.

Economic Statistics for 30 Nov 12

The following US economic statistics were announced today:

Personal Income was unchanged in October, while spending fell -0.2%. Both the headline and core the PCE Price Index rose 0.1%. On a year-over-year basis, both income and spending rose 3.1%, while inflation rose 1.7% at the headline level and 1.6% at the core level.

The Chicago Purchasing managers Index is essentially unchanged for November, up 0.1 points to 50.4, indicating barely any growth.

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Economic Statistics for 29 Nov 12

The following US economic statistics were announced today:

Chain stores are reporting mostly lower sales growth for November, as weak sales early in the month wasn’t offset by stronger sales later.

Initial claims for unemployment fell 23,000 last week, to 393,000. The 4-week moving average remains high at 405,250. Continuing claims fell 70,000 to 3.287 million.

The first revision for 3rd Quarter GDP was revised upwards substantially to 2.7% annualized, but due to inventories, not demand growth. Consumer spending and business equipment were both revised downwards. The GDP Price Deflator, an inflation measure, remained high at 2.7%, though the core rate, ex-food and energy, was revised down to 1.3%.

Corporate profits in the 3rd quarter grew to $1.752 trillion annualized, versus $1.665 trillion in the 2nd quarter.

The Pending Home Sales Index rose 5.2% to 104.8 in October.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose 0.9 points to -33.0.

The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index fell to -6 in November, down from -4 in October.

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