Dale Franks’ QandO posts
Producer Prices for Final Demand fell -0.4% in July Prices less food and energy fell -0.3%, while prices less food energy and trade services were unchanged. On a Year-over-year basis, PPI-FD fell -0.2% overall, but were up 0.7% less food and energy and up 0.8% less food, energy, and trade services.
Buoyed only by auto sales, Retail sales were unchanged in July, but sales less autos were down -0.3%, and sales less autos and gas fell -0.1%.
Business inventories rose 0.2% in June, while a 1.2% increase in sales pulled the stock-to-sales ratio down to a lean 1.39.
The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index rose 0.4 points to 90.4.
The US Government had a budget deficit of $-112.8 billion. For the year to date, the deficit is up 10.3% over last year.
July import prices rose 0.1%, and export prices rose 0.2%. On a year-over-year basis, prices are down -3.7%, for imports and -3.0% for exports.
The MBA reports that mortgage applications rose 7.1% last week, with purchases up 3.0% and refis up 10.0%.
Initial weekly jobless claims fell 1,000 to 266,000. The 4-week average rose 3,500 to 262,750. Continuing claims rose 14,000 to 2.155 million.
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell -1.2 points to 41.8 in the latest week.
The Fed’s balance sheet rose $2.1 billion last week, with total assets of $4.468 trillion. Reserve bank credit rose $1.8 billion.
The Fed reports that M2 money supply rose by $32.0 billion in the latest week.
The Fed’s Labor Market Conditions Index rose 2.9 points to 1.0 in July.
NFIB’s Small Business Optimism Index for July rose 0.1 points to 94.6.
Non-farm productivity fell a disappointing -0.5% in the 2nd Quarter, while unit labor costs rose 2.0%.
June wholesale inventories rose 0.3%, as sales surged 1.9 percent, pulling the stock-to-sales ratio down to 1.33.
Redbook reports that last week’s retail sales growth was little improved at 0.5% on a year-ago basis, from the previous week’s 0.3%.
255,000 net new jobs were created in July, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.9%, though, as 184,000 people came into the labor force. Average hourly earnings rose $0.06 to $25.96, and the average workweek rose 0.1 hours to 34.5 hours.
America’s international trade gap widened from $-41.1 billion to $-44.5 billion in June. This will put downward pressure on the next 2nd Quarter GDP revision, which is already weak at 1.1% annualized.
Consumer credit rose a soft $12.3 billion overall in June, but revolving credit rose an outsized $7.7 billion, a good sign for consumer spending.
Factory orders fell -1.5% in June, following May’s decline, which was revised downwards to -1.2%.
Few chain stores still report monthly sales, but that did for July reported sharply lower sales growth, triggering earnings reassessments.
A surge of Job cuts in the energy sector pushed Challenger’s July layoff count to 45,346 from June’s 38,536.
Gallup’s July Good Jobs Rate rose to 47.1% from June’s 46.0%.
Initial weekly jobless claims rose 3,000 to 269,000. The 4-week average rose 3,750 to 260,250. Continuing claims fell 6,000 to 2.138 million.
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose 0.1 points to 43.0 in the latest week.
The Fed’s balance sheet rose $2.3 billion last week, with total assets of $4.467 trillion. Reserve bank credit fell $-8.9 billion.
The Fed reports that M2 money supply rose by $49.7 billion in the latest week.
The PMI Services Index was unchanged in July at 51.4. while the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index fell -1.0 points to 55.5.
ADP estimates that 179,000 new private sector jobs were created in July.
Gallup’s U.S. Job Creation Index was unchanged at 33 in July.
The MBA reports that mortgage applications fell -3.5% last week, with purchases down -2.0% and refis -4.0%.
Personal income for June rose 0.2%, but consumer spending rose 0.4%. The PCE Price Index rose 0.1% at both the headline and core rates. On a year-over-year basis, the PCE Price index is up 0.9% overall, and 1.6% less food and energy.
Motor vehicle sales were very strong in July, jumping to a 17.9 million annual rate from June’s 16.7 million.
Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index fell -1 point in July to -15.
Redbook reports that last week’s retail sales growth weakened further falling to 0.3% on a year-ago basis, from the previous week’s 0.6%.
The PMI manufacturing index jumped 1.6 points in July, to 52.9. Conversely, the ISM manufacturing index fell -0.6 points to 52.6.
Construction spending fell -0.6% in June, and is up only 0.3% on a year-over-year basis.
Gallup’s US Consumer Spending Measure, a self-reported index of daily spending, jumped $12 to $100 in July.
The Republicans have turned from a conservative party to a party of white grievance, much as the Democrats are a party of minority grievance. Google searches are fun. There sure is a lot of porn on the internet. The Coen Brothers make interesting movies. Radio is dead.
This week’s podcast is up on the Podcast page.