Dale Franks’ QandO posts
The Fed’s Labor Market Conditions index rose 1.2 points, but remained negative at -0.9 in April.
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 1.0 points to 93.6 in April.
The Labor Department’s JOLTS report showed a jump to 5.575 million job openings in March, versus 5.445 million in February.
Wholesale inventories rose 0.1% in March, but a 0.7% sales increase kept the stock-to-sales ratio unchanged at 1.36.
Redbook reports that last week’s retail sales growth rose to a still-weak 1.1% on a year-ago basis, from the previous week’s 0.6%.
Maybe Donald Trump won’t lose. Maybe Hillary won’t be the Democrats’ nominee. Maybe the Democratic and Republican Parties aren’t long for this world.
Maybe all bets are off.
This week’s podcast is up on the Podcast page.
Only 160,000 net new jobs were created in April, leaving the unemployment rate unchanged at 5.0%. The departure of 362,000 people from the labor force drove the labor force participation rate down -0.2% to 82.8%. Average weekly hours rose 0.1 hours to 34.5 hours, and average hourly wearing rose $0.08 to $25.53.
Consumer credit rose a sharp $29.7 billion in March, including a very strong $11.1 billion increase in revolving credit.
Chain stores today reported that year-on-year sales rates were weaker than March, which was an already weak month.
The Challenger Job-Cut Report shows that April layoff announcements swelled to 65,141 from 48,207 in March.
Gallup’s Good Jobs Rate rose 0.5% to 44.9% in April.
Initial weekly jobless claims rose 17,000 to 274,000. The 4-week average rose 2,000 to 258,000. Continuing claims fell 8,000 to 2.121 million.
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell -1.4 points to 42.0 in the latest week.
The Fed’s balance sheet rose $2.6 billion last week, with total assets of $4.477 trillion. Reserve bank credit fell $-7.7 billion.
The Fed reports that M2 money supply rose by $62.8 billion in the latest week.
The nation’s international trade deficit fell to $-40.4 billion, but the month’s -3.6% drop in imports may signal falling demand.
Non-farm productivity fell an annualized -1.0% in the 1st Quarter of 2016, while unit labor costs rose 4.1%.
The ADP Employment Report estimates that only 156,000 private sector jobs were created in April.
Factory orders rose a solid 1.1% in March, following a downwardly revised -1.9% decline in February.
Gallup’s U.S. Job Creation Index fell -2 points to 30 in April.
The PMI Services Index rose 1.5 points to 52.8 in April. Similarly, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index rose 1.2 points to 55.7.
The MBA reports that mortgage applications fell -3.4% last week, with purchases up 1.0% but refis down -6.0%.
The PMI Manufacturing Index for April fell -0.7 points to a barely-positive 50.8.
Construction spending rose 0.3% in March, and is up 8.0% on a year-over-year basis.
Right in line with the PMI Index, the ISM Manufacturing index dropped -1.0 point in April to 50.8.
Gallup’s US Consumer Spending Measure for April reports that Americans’ self-reported daily spending rose $6 to $95.
Hillary Clinton will be president, the 1st and 2nd Amendments will be gutted by 2019, and the Republic is lost.
This week’s podcast is up on the Podcast page.
The initial estimate for 1st Quarter 2016 GDP came in at a lower-than-expected annualized rate of 0.5%. The GDP price index rose 0.7%.
The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index rose 2 points to a still-negative -4.
Weekly initial jobless claims rose 9,000 to 257,000. The 4-week average fell 4,750 to 256,000, the lowest in 42 years. Continuing claims fell 5,000 to 2.130 million which is the lowest in 16 years.
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose 0.5 points to 43.4.
The Fed’s balance sheet fell $15.5 billion last week, with total assets of $4.475 trillion. Reserve bank credit fell $-7.0 billion.
The Fed reports that M2 money supply rose by $16.1 billion in the latest week.
Stating that the economy “appears to have slowed” and household spending has moderated, The Federal Open Markets Committee left short-term interest rates unchanged, with a Fed Funds target rate of 0.25-0.50%.
The NAR’s Pending Home Sales Index rose 1.4% in March to 110.5.
March’s international trade deficit narrowed by a sharp -9.5% to $-56.9 billion, with exports down -1.7%, and imports plunging by -4.4%. Consumer goods imports fell -9.1%, indicating decreasing consumer demand.
The MBA reports that mortgage applications fell -4.1% last week, with purchases down -2.0% and refis down -5.0%.
Durable goods orders rose 0.8% in March, though orders are still down -2.5% on a year-over-year basis. Also, ex-transporation orders fell -0.2%, while capital goods orders were unchanged.
Case-Shiller’s home price index rose 0.7% in February, and is up 5.4% on a year-over-year basis.
The PMI Services Flash for April rose 1.1 points to 52.1.
The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell -2.0 points to 96.2 in April.
The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index fell -8 points to 14 in April.
Redbook reports that last week’s retail sales growth rose slightly to 0.8% on a year-ago basis, from the previous week’s 0.5%.