Free Markets, Free People

Dale Franks

Dale Franks’ QandO posts

Economic Statistics for 9 Oct 14

Chain stores today are reporting moderate increases in rates of year-on-year sales growth in September.

A drop in wholesale sales of -0.7% swelled inventories by 0.7%, leading to a hefty stock-to-sales ratio of 1.19.

Initial weekly jobless claims fell 1,000 to 287,000. The 4-week average fell 7,000 to 287,750. Continuing claims  fell 21,000 to 2.381 million.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose 2 points to 36.8 in the latest week.

The Fed’s balance sheet rose $5.1 billion last week, with total assets of $4.455 trillion. Reserve bank credit rose $3.9 billion.

The Fed reports that M2 money supply fell by $-7.3 billion in the latest week.


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Economic Statistics for 7 Oct 14

ICSC-Goldman reports weekly retail sales rose 0.1%, and rose 3.9% on a year-over-year basis. Redbook reports retail sales rose 5.4% on a year-ago basis.

Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index rose 1 point in September to -15.

Consumer credit rose a lower-than-expected $13.5 billion in August, as revolving credit slipped to $0.2 billion.


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Economic Statistics for 3 Oct 14

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that 248,000 net new jobs were created in September, with the unemployment rate falling to 5.9%. Average weekly hours rose to 34.6 hours from 34.5 hours, while average hourly income was unchanged at $20.67. All good so far. However, 97,000 people left the labor force last month, sending the labor force participation rate down -0.1% to 62.7%, the lowest since February of 1978. That means that 8,609,000 people who would have jobs with a historical participation rate average of 66.2%, do not now have jobs. In real terms, the unemployment rate is actually 10.87%, based on the historical labor force participation rate.

The US trade deficit fell by $400,000 to $-40.1 billion in August.

The Markit PMI services index for September fell -0.6 points to 58.9.

The ISM non-manufacturing index fell -1 point to 58.6 in September.

The JP Morgan Global Composite PMI fell -0.2 points to 54.9, while the Services PMI fell -0.2 points to 55.3 in September.


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Economic Statistics for 2 Oct 14

Challenger’s count of layoff announcement totals 30,477 in September, the lowest since June 2000. 

Gallup’s U.S. Payroll to Population employment rate fell a slight -0.1% to 44.8% in September.

Initial weekly jobless claims fell 8,000 to 287,000. The 4-week average fell 3,750 to 294,750. Continuing claims fell 45,000 to 2.441 million.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell -0.7 points to 34.8 in the latest week.

The Fed’s balance sheet fell $-8.8 billion last week, with total assets of $4,493 trillion. Reserve bank credit fell $-9.9 billion.

The Fed reports that M2 money supply fell by $-10.0 billion in the latest week.


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Economic Statistics for 1 Oct 14

September motor vehicle sales fell a sharp -6.3% to a worse-than-expected 16.4 million annual rate. The domestic sales rate was 13.2 million annualized. September faced a tough comparison to a very strong August, but sales were expected to be stronger.

ADP’s estimate for private payroll growth for September is 213,000.

Markit’s PMI Manufacturing Index for September fell just -0.4 points to a still-strong 57.5.

The ISM Manufacturing Index fell -2.4 points to 56.6.

Construction spending fell -0.8% in August after a 1.2% increase in July. Market expectations were for a 0.5% increase. On a year-over-year basis, spending rose 5.0%.

The J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI edged down -0.4 points to a still-positive 52.2.

Gallup’s US Job Creation Index reached a six-year high of 30 in September.

The MBA reports that mortgage applications fell -0.2% last week, with purchases unchanged, but refis down -0.3%.


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