Dale Franks’ QandO posts
June import prices rose 0.2%, while export prices jumped 0.8% on petroleum price increases. On year-over-year basis, import prices have fallen -4.8% while export prices have dropped -3.5%.
The US Treasury posted a $6.3 billion surplus in June but the government’s fiscal year deficit is up 27% to $400.9 billion vs $316.4 billion this time last year.
The Fed’s Beige Book today reported that 11 of 12 Fed districts are reporting only modest to moderate economic growth.
The Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations report showed 12-month inflation expectations fell -0.1% to a 1.7% annual rate.
The MBA reports that mortgage applications rose 7.2% last week, with purchases unchanged but refis up 11.0%.
The Fed’s Labor Market Conditions index improved, but couldn’t make it it into positive territory in June, rising from -4.8 to -1.9.
The Labor Department’s JOLTS survey fell sharply to 5.500 million job openings in May, down from April’s revised 5.845 million.
NFIB’s Small Business Optimism Index rose 0.7 points to 94.5 in June, the third straight monthly increase.
Wholesale trade inventories grew 0.1% in May, while a 0.5% sales increase lowered the stock-to-sales ratio from 1.36 to 1.35.
Redbook reports that last week’s retail sales growth rose to 0.8% on a year-ago basis, from the previous week’s 0.6%.
It’s been an awful week. Just awful. What can we do to fix it? It’s complicated.
This week’s podcast is up on the Podcast page.
In June, a greater-than-expected 287,000 net new jobs were created as the unemployment rate rose 0.2% to 4.9%, as 414,000 entrants came into the labor force, bringing the Labor force participation rate up 0.1% to 62.7%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.1%, while the average workweek was unchanged at 34.4 hours.
Consumer credit rose a large $18.6 billion in May, but the growth was mainly in non-revolving credit, indicating relatively weak consumer spending.
Chain stores reported mixed sales results for June, sparking uncertainty about the government’s retail sales report.
Challenger reports that layoff announcements totaled 38,536 in June, up from 30,157 in May.
ADP’s Employment Report indicates that 172,000 new private sector jobs were created in June.
Gallup’s Good Jobs Rate for June rose 0.5% to 46.0%.
Initial weekly jobless claims fell 16,000 to 254,000. The 4-week average fell 2,000 to 264,750. Continuing claims fell 44,000 to 2.124 million.
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell -0.4 points to 43.5 in the latest week.
The Fed’s balance sheet rose $4.1 billion last week, with total assets of $4.471 trillion. Reserve bank credit fell $-6.3 billion.
The Fed reports that M2 money supply rose by $31.7 billion in the latest week.
The nation’s trade deficit widened sharply in May, to $41.1 billion from April’s $37.4 billion.
The PMI Services Index was little changed in June, up 0.1 points to 51.4, while the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index jumped from 52.9 to 56.5.
Gallup’s U.S. Job Creation Index was unchanged at 33 in June.
Redbook reports that last week’s retail sales growth rose to a weak 0.6% on a year-ago basis, from the previous week’s 0.5%.
The MBA reports that a sharp drop in mortgage rates drove mortgage applications up 14.2% last week, with purchases up 4.0% and refis up 21.0%.
Factory orders fell -1.0% in May, with capital goods orders declining -0.4%, indicating a lack of business confidence.
Gallup’s Self-Reported US Daily Spending Measure fell from $93 to $88 in May.
Gallup’s US Economic Confidence Index remained unchanged in June at -14.
Snobs think they should dictate your opinions, Bill Clinton is Hillary’s best frenemy, Brexit doesn’t become a financial disaster, Germany makes some waves, European languages are dumb.
This week’s podcast is up on the Podcast page.
June motor vehicle sales fell a very sharp -4.6% to a 16.7 million annual rate. North American-made vehicle sales fell -3.7% to a 13.2 million annual rate.
The June PMI Manufacturing Index rose 0.6 points to 51.3, while the ISM Manufacturing Index rose a stronger 1.9 points to 53.2.
Construction spending fell unexpectedly in May, down -0.8%. Year-on-year spending is up 4.5%. April’s Construction spending was revised sharply downward to -2.0%.
The volatile Chicago Purchasing Manager’s Index jumped from 49.3 to 56.8 in June.
Initial weekly jobless claims rose 10,000 to 268,000. The 4-week average is unchanged at 266,750. Continuing claims fell 20,000 to 2.120 million.
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell -0.3 points to 43.9 in the latest week.
The Fed’s balance sheet fell $-15.5 billion last week, with total assets of $4.467 trillion. Reserve bank credit fell $-2.2 billion.
The Fed reports that M2 money supply rose by $18.1 billion in the latest week.