Free Markets, Free People

Dale Franks

Dale Franks’ QandO posts

Economic Statistics for 27 Oct 16

September durable goods orders slipped -0.1%. Ex-transportation orders were up 0.2%, but core capital goods orders fell -1.2%.

The Pending Home Sales Index rose 1.5% to 110.0 in September.

The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index was unchanged at 6 in October.

Initial weekly jobless claims fell 3,000 to 258,000. The 4-week average rose 1,250 to 253,000. Continuing claims fell 15,000 to 2.039 million.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index 1.6 points to 43.9 in the latest week.

The Fed’s balance sheet fell $-13.1 billion last week, with total assets of $4.454 trillion. Reserve bank credit fell $-4.6 billion.

The Fed reports that M2 money supply fell by $-9.3 billion in the latest week.


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Economic Statistics for 26 Oct 16

New home sales rose 3.1% in September, to a solid 593,000 annual pace. Year-on-year, new home sales are up 30%.

The nation’s trade gap in goods narrowed sharply in September, to $-56.1 billion vs a revised $-59.2 billion in August.

Markit’s PMI Services Flash for October rose sharply, up 2.9 points to 54.8.

The MBA reports that mortgage applications fell -4.1% last week, with purchases down -7.0% and refis down -2.0%.


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Economic Statistics for 25 Oct 16

The FHFA House Price Index rose 0.7% in August, following July’s strong 0.5%.

More subdued is the S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI, which, unlike the FHFA data, shows only a 0.2% increase for August. On a year-over-year basis, Case-Shiller is up 5.1%.

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell from 104.1 to a weaker-than-expected 98.6 in October.

The State Street Investor Confidence Index rose 3.6 points in October to 99.1 from September’s revised 95.5. 

The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index rose to -4 in October from -8 in September.

Redbook reports that last week’s retail sales growth fell back to 0.3% on a year-ago basis, from the previous week’s 1.0%.


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Observations: The QandO Podcast 21 Oct 16

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The last debate is over…FINALLY! We now cruise towards an election with Trump losing badly in traditional polls, but ahead in the tracking polls. Is there a hidden silent majority for Trump? We’re not betting on it. Dale is reading a lot about Rome, and makes a lot of tendentious parallels between Ancient Rome and modern America. The Cubs may do something no Living American has ever seen. Football will disappear within 20 years. Michael talks about golf, and Dale’s attempt to have fun with that goes terribly wrong, making the last five minutes of the podcast unlistenable.

This week’s podcast is up on the Podcast page.

Economic Statistics for 19 Oct 16

Atlanta Fed’s Business Inflation Expectations Survey show businesses expect 1.7% inflation over the next 12 months.

Housing starts fell a sharp -9.0% in September, but it was all concentrated in multi-family units. Single family units rose a strong 8.1%. the overall total rate was an annualized 1.047 million. Building permits rose 6.3% to a 1.225 million annual rate.

The MBA reports that mortgage applications rose 0.6% last week, with purchases up 3.0% and refis down -1.0%.


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Economic Statistics for 18 Oct 16

Consumer prices rose 0.3% in September, though prices less food and energy rose only 0.1%. On a year-over-year basis, the CPI is up 1.5% overall and 2.2% at the core.

Net foreign demand for long-term US securities rose $48.3 billion in August, mainly on $30.4B in foreign buying.

The housing market index fell -2 points to 63 in October, keeping most of September’s 6-point gain.

Redbook reports that last week’s retail sales growth rose to 1.0% on a year-ago basis, from the previous week’s 0.5%.


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Observations: The QandO Podcast for 15 Oct 16

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Donald Trump is a boor, which we already knew. The media has abandoned any pretense of objectivity, and gone all in for Hillary Clinton. How do you fix a biased media? You dont. Not easily, anyway. Meanwhile, Milwaukee sheriff David Clarke says a riot is an ugly thing, but it’s about time we had one. The US looks like it collapsing slowly, in the same way the Roman Republic did…we’re just waiting to see who our Julius Caesar is. But, maybe, just maybe, we can avoid that with a Constitutional Convention. How much of the GOP’s decline can be based on the Entertainment Wing? Oh, also, Russia and China are dangerous.

This week’s podcast is up on the Podcast page.

Economic Statistics for 14 Oct 16

Producer Prices for Final Demand (PPI-FD) rose 0.3% in September. PPI-FD less food and energy rose 0.2%, and 0.3% less food energy and trade services. on a year-over-year basis, PPI-FD is up 0.7% overall, 1.2% less food and energy, and 1.5% less food energy and trade services.

Retail sales rose a solid 0.6% in September, with sales less autos up 0.5%, and sales less autos and gas up 0.3%.

The Treasury’s budget showed a $33.4 billion surplus in September, but the FY2016 deficit rose 34% to $587.4 billion. Receipts rose only 0.6% as corporate income taxes fell 12.9%. and individual income taxes rose only 0.3%. Spending rose 4.5% in the year, led by an 8.8% rise in Medicare.

Business inventories rose 0.2%, in line with a 0.2% rise in sales that left the stock-to-sales ratio unchanged at 1.39.

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index plunged -3.3 points to 87.9 for September.


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