Dale Franks’ QandO posts
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Retail sales rose 0.6% in July, with sales less autos and sales less autos and gas both up 0.4%. May and June sales were revised upwards as well.
July export prices fell -0.2%, while import prices fell -0.9%. Year over year, export prices are down -6.1% and import prices are down -10.4%.
Business inventories rose 0.8% in June, well ahead of a 0.2% rise in sales. The mismatch lifts the inventory-to-sales ratio to 1.37 from 1.36.
Initial weekly jobless claims rose 4,000 to 274,000. The 4-week average fell 1,750 to 266,250. Continuing claims rose 15,000 to 2.273 million.
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose 0.4 points to 40.7 in the latest week.
The Fed’s balance sheet rose $2.9 billion last week, with total assets of $4.489 trillion. Reserve bank credit rose $2.5 billion.
The Fed reports that M2 money supply rose by $1.8 billion in the latest week.
The MBA reports that mortgage applications rose 0.1% last week, with purchases down -4.0% and refis up 3.0%.
The Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations Index fell -0.2%, with businesses now expecting annual inflation of 1.8%.
The Labor Department’s JOLTS report shows that job openings fell to 5.249 million in June from 5.357 million in May.
The Treasury reports that July’s budget deficit totaled $149.2 billion. The Fiscal Year to date deficit stands at $428.0 billion vs $460.5 billion a year ago.
The Labor Market Conditions Index for July came in slightly below expectations at 1.1 vs a revised 1.4 in June.
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for July rose 1.3 points to a better-than-expected 95.4.
Productivity rose 1.3% in the 2nd Quarter, while growth in Unit Labor Costs was held down to 0.5%.
Redbook reports that last week’s retail sales growth rose to a still-soft 1.9% on a year-ago basis, from the previous week’s 1.7%.
Wholesale inventories rose a surprising 0.9% in June, while a weak 0.1% rise in sales left the stock-to-sales ratio at a hefty 1.30.
Vacations are over, so the Podcast once again fills out empty Friday evenings. It’s on the Podcast Page.
The Labor Department reports that a mediocre 215,000 net new jobs were created in June, with the unemployment rate unchanged at 5.3%. Also unchanged was the labor force participation rate, at 62.6%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.2%, while the average workweek increased by one tick to 34.6 hours.
Consumer credit rose a strong $20.7 billion in June, including a strong gain of $5.5 billion for revolving credit.
Chain stores reporting sales today say that July was a weak month, with lower rates of year-on-year sales growth compared to June.
A major Army troop cut made for an outsized 105,696 layoff count in July, according to Challenger.
Gallup’s US Payroll to Population Employment Rate was unchanged at 45.5% in July.
Initial weekly jobless claims rose 3,000 to 270,00. The 4-week average fell 6,50 to 268,250. Continuing claims fell 14,000 to 2.255 million.
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell -0.2 points to 40.3 in the latest week.
The Fed’s balance sheet rose $0.9 billion last week, with total assets of $4.486 trillion. Reserve bank credit fell $-9.0 billion.
The Fed reports that M2 money supply grew by $12.1 billion in the latest week.
The MBA reports that mortgage applications rose 4.7% last week, with purchases up 3.0% and refis up 6.0%.
ADP estimates that only 185,000 net new private sector jobs were created in July.
Rising imports in June led the US trade deficit to rise to a higher-than-expected $-43.8 billion for the month.
Gallup’s US Job Creation Index remained unchanged at 32 in July.
The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index surged 4.3 points to a surprising 60.3 in July.
The PMI Services Index rose 0.9 points in July to 55.7.
Gallup’s US Economic Confidence Index for July dropped -4 points to -12, as American’s fear a worsening economy.
Redbook reports that last week’s retail sales rose to a still weak 1.7% on a year-ago basis, from the previous week’s 1.0%.
Factory Orders rose for only the second time in 11 months in June, rising 0.8%.
July motor vehicle sales came in at a stronger than expected 3.2% increase to a 17.6 million annual rate. Sales of North American-made vehicles rose 5.2% to a 14.2 million annual rate.
Personal income rose 0.4% in June, while consumer spending rose 0.2%. The PCE Price Index, an inflation measure, rose 0.2% overall, and 0.1% less food and energy. On a year-over-year basis, personal income rose 4.1%, consumer spending rose 3.4%, and the price index rose 0.3% overall, and 1.3% at the core.
Gallup’s US Consumer Spending Measure shows that Americans report spending an average of $91 per day in July, little changed from June’s $90.
The ISM Manufacturing Index slipped -0.8 points in July to a lower-than-expected 52.7. In contrast, the PMI Manufacturing index rose 0.2 points to 53.8.
Construction spending inched only 0.1% higher in June, mainly due to a -1.3% drop in non-residential private construction. On a year-over-year basis, Construction spending is up by 12.0%.