Dale Franks’ QandO posts
Nobody wants to hear sting play the lute, or Donald Trump insult Megan Kelly. But, if you want hear this week’s podcast, it’s on the podcast page.
US GDP growth fell to 0.7% annualized in the 4th Quarter of 2015, according to the Commerce Department’s initial estimate. The GDP Price index fell to 0.8%.
The nation’s trade deficit increased 2.0% in November, to $-61.5 billion, as exports fell -0.1% and imports were unchanged from the previous month.
The Employment Cost index rose 2.0% in the 4th Quarter of 2015, with a year-over-year increase of 2.0%. The quarterly increase indicates that wage pressure might be rising.
The Chicago PMI jumped from 42.9 to 55.6 in January. I wouldn’t expect this volatile result to be reflected in Monday’s nation PMI.
The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index fell from 93.2 to 92.0 in January.
December’s durable goods orders plunged -5.1%, and ex-transportation orders fell -1.2%. Capitol goods orders fell -4.3%. On a year-over year basis, durable goods orders fell -0.6%, ex-transportation fell -3.2%, and core capitol goods fell -7.5%.
The Pending Home Sales Index rose 0.1% in December to 106.8.
The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index fell -1 point to -9 in January.
Initial weekly jobless claims fell 16,000 to 278,000. The 4-week average fell 2,250 to 283,000. Continuing claims rose 49,000 to 2.268 million.
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose 0.6 points to 44.6 in the latest week.
The Fed’s balance sheet rose $6.5 billion last week, with total assets of $4.482 trillion. Reserve bank credit fell $-4.9 billion.
The Fed reports that M2 money supply rose by $8.5 billion in the latest week.
New home sales jumped 10.8% in December, to a 544,000 annual rate, well above analysts’ predictions.
The Federal Open Markets Committee left short-term interest rates unchanged today, with a Fed Funds target of 0.25% to 0.50%.
The MBA reports that mortgage applications those 8.8% last week, with purchases up 5.0% and refis up 11.0%.
The FHFA House Price Index rose 0.5% in November, and was up 5.9% on a year-over-year basis, while the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index was up 09%, and is up 5.8% on a year-over-year basis.
The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) US Services Flash was unchanged at 53.7 for January.
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index rose 1.6 points to 98.1 in January.
The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index slipped to 2 in January from 6 in December.
The State Street Investor Confidence Index rose 0.5 points to 108.8 in January.
Redbook reports that last week’s retail sales fell to 1.0% on a year-ago basis, from the previous week’s already-soft 1.4%.
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose slightly, to -0.22 in December.
The PMI Manufacturing Index Flash rose 1.4 points in January to 52.7.
Existing home sales jumped 14.7% in December to a 5.460 million annual rate. On a year-over-year basis, sales are up 7.7%.
The Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators fell -0.2% in December following an upward revised 0.5% gain in November.
The Philadelphia Fed Survey gained back some of it’s negative ground in January, rising from -5.9 to -3.5.
Initial weekly jobless claims rose 10,000 to 293,000. The 4-week average rose 14,250 to 285,000. Continuing claims fell 56,000 to 2.228 million.
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell -0.4 points to 44.0 in the latest week.
The Fed’s balance sheet fell $-12.9 billion last week, with total assets of $4.489 trillion. Reserve bank credit rose $5.3 billion.
The Fed reports that M2 money supply rose surprisingly sharply, up $173.3 billion in the latest week.
Consumer prices fell -0.1% overall in December, while the core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.1%. On a year-over-year basis, The CPI is up 0.7% overall, and 2.1% at the core.
Housing starts fell -2.5% in December to a 1.149 million annual rate, while building permits fell -3.9% to a 1.232 million rate.
The MBA reports that mortgage applications rose 9.0% last week, with purchases down -2.0% but refis up 19.0%.
Redbook reports that last week’s retail sales growth fell to 1.4% on a year-ago basis, from the previous week’s already-soft 1.7%.
This week’s podcast is up on the Podcast page.