Dale Franks’ QandO posts
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that 248,000 net new jobs were created in September, with the unemployment rate falling to 5.9%. Average weekly hours rose to 34.6 hours from 34.5 hours, while average hourly income was unchanged at $20.67. All good so far. However, 97,000 people left the labor force last month, sending the labor force participation rate down -0.1% to 62.7%, the lowest since February of 1978. That means that 8,609,000 people who would have jobs with a historical participation rate average of 66.2%, do not now have jobs. In real terms, the unemployment rate is actually 10.87%, based on the historical labor force participation rate.
The US trade deficit fell by $400,000 to $-40.1 billion in August.
The Markit PMI services index for September fell -0.6 points to 58.9.
The ISM non-manufacturing index fell -1 point to 58.6 in September.
The JP Morgan Global Composite PMI fell -0.2 points to 54.9, while the Services PMI fell -0.2 points to 55.3 in September.
Challenger’s count of layoff announcement totals 30,477 in September, the lowest since June 2000.
Gallup’s U.S. Payroll to Population employment rate fell a slight -0.1% to 44.8% in September.
Initial weekly jobless claims fell 8,000 to 287,000. The 4-week average fell 3,750 to 294,750. Continuing claims fell 45,000 to 2.441 million.
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell -0.7 points to 34.8 in the latest week.
The Fed’s balance sheet fell $-8.8 billion last week, with total assets of $4,493 trillion. Reserve bank credit fell $-9.9 billion.
The Fed reports that M2 money supply fell by $-10.0 billion in the latest week.
September motor vehicle sales fell a sharp -6.3% to a worse-than-expected 16.4 million annual rate. The domestic sales rate was 13.2 million annualized. September faced a tough comparison to a very strong August, but sales were expected to be stronger.
ADP’s estimate for private payroll growth for September is 213,000.
Markit’s PMI Manufacturing Index for September fell just -0.4 points to a still-strong 57.5.
The ISM Manufacturing Index fell -2.4 points to 56.6.
Construction spending fell -0.8% in August after a 1.2% increase in July. Market expectations were for a 0.5% increase. On a year-over-year basis, spending rose 5.0%.
The J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI edged down -0.4 points to a still-positive 52.2.
Gallup’s US Job Creation Index reached a six-year high of 30 in September.
The MBA reports that mortgage applications fell -0.2% last week, with purchases unchanged, but refis down -0.3%.
ICSC-Goldman reports weekly retail sales fell -0.2%, and rose 3.6% on a year-over-year basis. Redbook reports retail sales rose 4.3% on a year-ago basis.
The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index fell a sharp 0.5% in July, the steepest drop since November 2011. This is the third straight monthly decline. Once again, the numbers from the housing sector show a lot of weakness. On a year-over-year basis, the index is up 6.7%.
The Chicago Purchasing Manager’s Index fell 3.8 points in September to 60.5.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index in fell sharply from 92.4 to 86.0 in September.
The State Street Investor Confidence Index rose 1.1 points to 123.9 in September, on rising confidence among European institutional investors.
Personal income rose 0.3% in August, while personal spending rose 0.5%. The PCE Price index was unchanged overall, but up 0.1% at the core level. On a year over year basis, personal income rose 4.3%, spending rose 4.1%, and the PCE Price index rose 1.5% at both the headline and core rate.
The pending home sales index for August fell 1.0% to 104.7, as the housing sector remains stubbornly flat.
The Dallas Fed general business activity index for September rose 3.7 points to 10.8, while the production index rocketed from 6.8 to 17.6.
This week’s podcast us up at the Podcast page.
The final revision to 2nd Quarter GDP was increased to a 4.6% annualized growth rate. The GDP Price Index was unchanged at 2.1%.
After-tax profits for the 2nd Quarter were revised upwards slightly to 4.6%.
The Reuters/University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index for September was unchanged at 84.6.
Durable goods orders fell a sharp -18.2% in August, but ex-transportation orders rose a healthy 0.7%. On a year-over-year basis, new orders rose 8.9% overall, while ex-transportation orders rose 7.3%.
The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index rose 3 points to 6 in September.
The PMI Services Flash for September was unchanged at 58.5.
Initial weekly jobless claims rose 12,000 to 293,000. The 4-week average fell 1,000 to 298,500. Continuing claims rose 7,000 to 2.439 million.
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell -1.8 points to 35.5 in the latest week, which is a 4-month low.
The Fed’s balance sheet rose $9.5 billion last week, with total assets of $4.459 trillion. Reserve bank credit rose $10.1 billion.
The Fed reports that M2 money supply rose by $7.4 billion in the latest week.