Free Markets, Free People

Dale Franks

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Economic Statistics for 2 Jan 15

Markit’s PMI Manufacturing Index slowed by -0.9 points in December, coming in at 53.9.

The ISM Manufacturing Index fell -3.2 points to 55.5 in December.

The J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI fell -0.2 points to 51.6 in December.

Construction spending fell -0.3% in November, well below expectations. On a year-over-year basis, spending is up only 2.4%. The recent slack in housing has negative implications for 4th Quarter GDP.

The Fed’s balance sheet fell $-11.8 billion last week, with total assets of 4.498 trillion. Reserve bank credit fell $-11.9 billion.

The Fed reports that M2 money supply grew by $16.6 billion in the latest week.


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Economic Statistics for 31 Dec 14

Initial weekly jobless claims rose 17,000 to 298,000. The 4-week average rose 500 to 290,750. Continuing claims fell 53,000 to 2.353  million.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell -0.4 points to 42.7 in the latest week.

The NAR’s Pending Home Sales index rose 0.8 points in November, to 104.8.

The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index  fell -2.5 points to 58.3 in December.


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Economic Statistics for 30 Dec 14

ICSC-Goldman reports weekly retail sales at chain stores were flat, and rose only a soft 2.2% on a year-over-year basis. Redbook reports retail sales were little changed from last week, rising 5.4% on a year-ago basis, compared to 5.3% last week.

The S&P/Case-Shiller home price index rose 0.8% in October, but the still-weak 4.5% increase from last year is down -0.3% from September.

The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index rose 1.6 points to 92.6, which is near recovery highs.

The State Street Investor Confidence Index remains strong but did ease in December, to 112.1 vs a revised 113.7 in November.


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Economic Statistics for 24 Dec 14

The MBA reports that mortgage applications rose 0.9% last week, with purchases and refis both up 1.0%.

Initial weekly jobless claims fell 9,000 to 280,000. The 4-week average fell 8,500 to 290,250. Continuing claims  rose 25,000 to 2.403 million.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose 1.4 points to 43.1 in the latest week, the highest reading since October, 2007.


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Economic Statistics for 23 Dec 14

ICSC-Goldman reports strong weekly retail sales, rising 3.4% for the week, and 3.1% on a year-over-year basis. Redbook reports same-store weekly retail sales surged 5.3% on a year-ago basis.

Durable goods orders for November dropped -0.7%, far below expectations, while ex-transportation orders fell -0.4%. On a year-over year basis, durables orders are up only 0.3%, though ex-transportation orders are up 3.9%. 

GDP for the 3rd Quarter of 2014 was revised sharply higher in this final revision, to a 5.0% annualized rate, significantly higher than expected. The GDP price deflator, an inflation measure, was unchanged at 1.4%, annualized.

Corporate after-tax profits in the 3rd Quarter of 2014 were $1.895 trillion, following $1.842 trillion for the 2nd Quarter. 

The FHFA House Price Index rose 0.6% in October, and is up 4.5% from a year ago.

The Reuter’s/University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index was little changed for December, falling just -0.2 points to 93.6.

Personal income rose 0.4% in November, while personal spending rose 0.6%. On a year over year basis, income is up 4.2% while spending is up 4.0%. The PCE price index fell -0.2%, and the core rate, which excludes food and energy, was unchanged. On a year-over-year basis, the PCE price index is up 1.2% overall, and 1.4% at the core level.

November new home sales fell -1.6% to a lower-than-expected 438,000 annual rate. Also, price data show weakness with the median price falling -3.2% to $280,000.

The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index rose 3 points to 7 in December.


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Economic Statistics for 18 Dec 14

Markit’s PMI services flash for December fell -2.7 points from the final November reading to 53.6.

The Philadelphia Fed Survey fell to a very strong 24.5 in December, from November’s unusually high 40.8.

The Conference Board’s index of leading indicators rose 0.6% in December, following November’s 0.9% gain.

Initial weekly jobless claims  6,000 to 289,000. The 4-week average fell 500 to 298,750. Continuing claims fell 147,000 to 2.373 million.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose 0.4 points to 41.7 in the latest week, hitting a 7-year high.

The Fed’s balance sheet rose $13.4 billion last week, with total assets of 4.502 trillion. Reserve bank credit rose $16.1 billion.

The Fed reports that M2 money supply rose by $5.3 billion in the latest week.


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