Dale Franks’ QandO posts
Personal income rose by 0.2% in September, while personal spending declined by -0.2%. The PCE Price index rose 0.1% at both the headline and core rates. On a year-over-year basis, consumer spending has risen 1.4%, while the PCE Price index has risen 1.5%.
The Employment Cost Index rose 0.7% in the 3rd Quarter of 2014, due mainly to upward pressure on wages and salaries. On a year-over-year basis, the ECI is up 2.2%.
The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index rose nearly 6 points to 66.2 in October.
The Reuter’s/University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index rose half a point to 86.9 in October, the highest since July 2007.
The initial estimate for 3rd Quarter 2014 GDP came in at 3.5% annualized, led by personal consumption expenditures. The GDP price index rose at 1.3% annualized.
Initial weekly jobless claims rose 3,000 to 287,000. The 4-week average fell 250 to 281,000. Continuing claims rose 29,000 to 2.384 million.
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell -0.5 points to 37.2 in the latest week.
The Fed’s balance sheet rose $5.1 billion last week, with total assets of 4.536 trillion. Reserve bank credit rose $14.2 billion.
The Fed reports that M2 money supply rose by $42.5 billion in the latest week.
The MBA reports that mortgage applications fell -6.6% last week, with purchases down -5.0% and refis down -7.0%.
The FOMC Meeting ended today, with the announcement that interest rates would remain unchanged, with a Fed Funds target rate of 0% to 0.25%. The FOMC characterized the economy as “expanding at a moderate pace”, and the job market as “improving”.
ICSC-Goldman reports weekly retail sales rose 0.3%, and rose 2.8% on a year-over-year basis. Redbook reports retail sales rose 4.4% on a year-ago basis.
September durable goods orders fell for the second straight month, down -1.3% overall, and -0.2% ex-transportation. On a year-over-year basis, orders are up 3.3% and orders excluding transportation are up 7.3%.
The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index for August fell -0.1%, contracting for the fourth straight month. On a year-over-year basis, the index is up 5.6%.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index for October rose to 94.5, the highest since October 2007.
The Richmond Fed manufacturing index rose 6 points to 20 in October.
The State Street Investor Confidence Index came in at 115.1, compared to September’s especially strong reading of 123.9.
The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey slipped -0.3 points in October to a still-strong 10.5, while the production index fell -3.9 points to 13.7.
Market’s PMI Services Flash for October fell -1.2 points to 57.3.
The National Association of Realtors pending home sales index rose 0.3 points to 105.0 in September.
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The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose 1.5 points to 37.7 in the latest week.
Initial weekly jobless claims rose 17,000 to 283,000. The 4-week average fell 3,000 to 281,000, a 14-year low. Continuing claims fell 38,000 to 2.351 million.
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose strongly from -0.21 to 0.47 in September.
The FHFA purchase only house price index rose 0.5% in August.
The Markit PMI manufacturing index flash for October fell -1.7 points from the final September reading to 56.2.
The Kansas City Fed manufacturing index fell -2 points to 4 in October.
The Fed’s balance sheet rose $7.3 billion last week, with total assets of 4.482 trillion. Reserve bank credit rose $15.2 billion.
The Fed reports that M2 money supply fell by $-39.3 billion in the latest week.
Consumer prices rose 0.1% in September at both the headline and core rates of the CPI. On a year-over-year basis, the CPI is up 1.7%, again at both the core and headline levels.
The MBA reports that, thanks to falling lending rates, mortgage applications rose a sharp 11.6% last week, with purchases down -5.0% but refis up 23.0%.
ICSC-Goldman reports weekly retail sales were weak, falling -0.3%, and rising only 2.1% on a year-over-year basis. Redbook, conversely, reports retail sales rose 4.1% on a year-ago basis.
Existing home sales rose a solid 2.4% in September, hitting an annualized 5.17 million rate, which was better than expected.