Dale Franks’ QandO posts
The Philadelphia Fed survey went positive, rising from-2.9 to 2.0 in August.
The Conference Board’s Index of Leading Indicators for August rose 0.4%.
Initial weekly jobless claims fell 4,000 to 262,000. The 4-week average rose 2,500 to 265,250. Continuing claims rose 15,000 to 2.175 million.
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose 1.8 points to 43.6 in the latest week.
The Fed’s balance sheet fell $-2.5 billion last week, with total assets of $4.467 trillion. Reserve bank credit rose $10.4 billion.
The Fed reports that M2 money supply rose by $5.6 billion in the latest week.
Consumer prices were unchanged in July, though prices less food and energy, the so-called “core rate”, rose 0.1%. On a year-over-year basis, the CPI is up 0.8% overall, and 2.2% at the core.
Housing starts rose a strong 2.1% to an annualized 1.211 million rate in July. Permits were weaker, at a 1.152 million rate.
The Fed reports that industrial production to 0.7% in July, while capacity utilization in the nation’s factories rose 0.5% to 75.9%.
E-commerce retail sales rose 4.5% in the 2nd Quarter, and are up 15.8% on a year-over-year basis.
Redbook reports that last week’s retail sales growth fell to a very weak 0.2% on a year-ago basis, from the previous week’s 0.5%.
The Treasury reports that foreign demand for long-term US fell from an inflow of $41.1 billion to a $-3.6 billion outflow in June. Foreigners bought US securities only lightly ($7.6B), while US investors were relatively heavy buyers ($11.2B) of foreign securities.
The Housing Market Index rose 1 point to 60 in August.
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey fell back into negative territory again, falling from 0.55 to -4.21 in August.
70s TV shows were full of amusing racism. Donald Trump needs to go away for a week, to let people realize how much they dislike Hillary Clinton. Vladimir Putin is a cagey SOB. Turkey’s Erdogan is just an SOB. We don’t win any more.
This week’s podcast is up on the Podcast page.
Producer Prices for Final Demand fell -0.4% in July Prices less food and energy fell -0.3%, while prices less food energy and trade services were unchanged. On a Year-over-year basis, PPI-FD fell -0.2% overall, but were up 0.7% less food and energy and up 0.8% less food, energy, and trade services.
Buoyed only by auto sales, Retail sales were unchanged in July, but sales less autos were down -0.3%, and sales less autos and gas fell -0.1%.
Business inventories rose 0.2% in June, while a 1.2% increase in sales pulled the stock-to-sales ratio down to a lean 1.39.
The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index rose 0.4 points to 90.4.
The US Government had a budget deficit of $-112.8 billion. For the year to date, the deficit is up 10.3% over last year.
July import prices rose 0.1%, and export prices rose 0.2%. On a year-over-year basis, prices are down -3.7%, for imports and -3.0% for exports.
The MBA reports that mortgage applications rose 7.1% last week, with purchases up 3.0% and refis up 10.0%.
Initial weekly jobless claims fell 1,000 to 266,000. The 4-week average rose 3,500 to 262,750. Continuing claims rose 14,000 to 2.155 million.
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell -1.2 points to 41.8 in the latest week.
The Fed’s balance sheet rose $2.1 billion last week, with total assets of $4.468 trillion. Reserve bank credit rose $1.8 billion.
The Fed reports that M2 money supply rose by $32.0 billion in the latest week.
The Fed’s Labor Market Conditions Index rose 2.9 points to 1.0 in July.
NFIB’s Small Business Optimism Index for July rose 0.1 points to 94.6.
Non-farm productivity fell a disappointing -0.5% in the 2nd Quarter, while unit labor costs rose 2.0%.
June wholesale inventories rose 0.3%, as sales surged 1.9 percent, pulling the stock-to-sales ratio down to 1.33.
Redbook reports that last week’s retail sales growth was little improved at 0.5% on a year-ago basis, from the previous week’s 0.3%.
255,000 net new jobs were created in July, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.9%, though, as 184,000 people came into the labor force. Average hourly earnings rose $0.06 to $25.96, and the average workweek rose 0.1 hours to 34.5 hours.
America’s international trade gap widened from $-41.1 billion to $-44.5 billion in June. This will put downward pressure on the next 2nd Quarter GDP revision, which is already weak at 1.1% annualized.
Consumer credit rose a soft $12.3 billion overall in June, but revolving credit rose an outsized $7.7 billion, a good sign for consumer spending.