Dale Franks’ QandO posts
Redbook reports that last week’s retail sales continued to disappoint, down to 1.2% on a year-ago basis, from the previous week’s 1.7%.
The NFIB’s small business optimism index came in well above expectations, at 98.3 for a very solid 1.4 point gain in May.
Wholesale inventories rose 0.4% in April but far below a giant 1.6% surge in sales. The stock-to-sales ratio edged down to 1.29 from 1.30.
The Labor Department’s JOLTS Report shows April job openings at 5.376 million, the highest reading in the history of the series since 2000.
The Employment Situation in May perked up, with 280,000 net new jobs created, though unemployment rate rose 0.1% to 5.5%. The labor force participation rate rose to 62.9%, with 397,000 entrants to the labor force, of which 208,000 were re-entrants. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3%, while the average workweek remained steady at 34.5 hours.
Consumer credit rose by $20.5 billion in April, helped by an $8.6 billion increase in revolving credit.
Chain stores are reporting no better than mixed results for May, offering no clear signal for the May retail sales report.
The layoff count in the Challenger Job Cut Report fell to 41,034 in May, vice 61,582 in April.
Productivity in the 1st Quarter of 2015 dropped -3.1%, while unit labor costs jumped 6.7%.
Gallup’s U.S. Payroll to Population employment rate fell -0.6% to 44.5% in May, identical to the rate measured in May 2014.
Initial weekly jobless claims fell 8,000 to 276,000. The 4-week average rose 3,250 to 274,250. Continuing claims fell 30,000 to 2.196 million.
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell -0.4 points to 40.5 in the latest week.
The Fed’s balance sheet rose $1.4 billion last week, with total assets of $4.465 trillion. Reserve bank credit fell $-11.3 billion.
The Fed reports that M2 money supply rose by $19.2 billion in the latest week.
The MBA reports that mortgage applications fell -7.6% last week, with purchases down -3.0% and refis down -12%.
ADP estimates that private payrolls rose a moderate 201,000 in May. We’ll see how true that is in Friday’s Employment Situation.
Rising imports lowered the April trade deficit to $-40.9 billion from $-51.4 billion in March.
Gallup’s U.S. Job Creation Index reached a new high of 32 in May, up from 31 in April.
Markit’s PMI Services Index fell from 57.4 in April to 56.2 in May.
The ISM non-manufacturing index for May, at 55.7, came in at the low end of Econoday expectations, falling -2.1 points.
The Fed’s Beige Book downgrades the strength of the economy today, with four of the Fed’s twelve districts reporting slowing growth.
Motor vehicle sales made a big 7.9% jump in May, to an annual sales rate of 17.8 million. North American-made vehicles also jumped 7.6% to a 14.2 million rate.
Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index dropped -4 points in May to -7.
Redbook reports that last week’s retail sales growth remained weak, rising to just 1.7% on a year-ago basis, from the previous week’s 1.6%.
Factory orders fell -0.4% in April for the 8th decline in 9 months. Ex-transportation, factory orders were unchanged.
Personal income rose 0.4% in April, while personal spending—and the PCE Price Index—was unchanged. The core price index, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.1%. On a year-over-year basis, prices are up 0.1% overall, while the core price index is up 1.2%.
The PMI Manufacturing Index fell -0.1 points in May to 54.0.
The ISM Manufacturing index, in contrast to the PMI, rose 1.3 points to 52.8 in May.
Construction spending rose a much better-than-expected 2.2% in April, compared to March’s -0.6% decline. On a year-over-year basis, construction spending rose 4.8%.
Gallup’s self-reported Consumer Spending measure was unchanged at $91 per day in May.
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The final revision of 1st Quarter 2015 GDP came in at -0.7%, while the GDP Price Index fell -0.1%.
Corporate profits in the 1st Quarter of 2015 came in at $1.894 trillion, up 2.7% from the prior quarter.
The Chicago Purchasing Manager’s Index fell sharply to 46.2 in May from 52.3.
The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index rose from 88.6 to 90.7 in May.
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