Dale Franks’ QandO posts
Donald Trump’s…um…intemperate remarks about women hit the airwaves, and got wall-to-wall coverage. So, it looks like Ted Cruz picked the wrong week to release a photograph of him making phone calls for the Trump Campaign. Anyway, the disaster that is Election 2016 continues apace. With the election almost in the bag, why are Dems cheating so much? Popular culture is sending us subtle messages that are hard to pick up, but dramatically affect our thinking. Also, the educational system in this country is a frickin’ disaster.
This week’s podcast is up on the Podcast page.
The BLS reports that a lackluster 156,000 net new jobs were created in September, while the unemployment rate rose 0.1% to 5.0%. The labor force participation rate rose 0.1% to 62.9%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.2%, while the average workweek increased by 0.1 hours to 34.4 hours.
Wholesale trade inventories fell -0.2%, while a sharp 0.7% rise in wholesale sales drew the stock-to-sales ratio down -0.1 to 1.33.
Consumer credit jumped by $25.9 billion, with revolving credit rose by $5.6 billion.
The small number of chain store retailers that still report monthly sales are mostly reporting much weaker sales rates in September.
Challenger’s Job-Cut Report shows a total of 44,324 layoffs announced in September, versus August’s very low 32,188.
Gallup’s Good Jobs Rate for september fell -0.9% to 45.6%, which is still the highest September reading since 2010.
Initial weekly jobless claims fell 5,000 to 249,000. The 4-week average fell 2,500 to 253,500. Continuing claims fell 6,000 to 2.058 million.
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell -0.2 points to 41.4 in the latest week.
The Fed’s balance sheet rose $7.4 billion last week, with total assets of $4.459 trillion. Reserve bank credit fell $-6.3 billion.
The Fed reports that M2 money supply rose by $37.3 billion in the latest week.
Factory order rose an unexceptional 0.2% in August, but, hidden beneath the headline number, core capital goods orders jumped by 0.9%.
ADP reports an estimate of 154,000 net new private-sector jobs created in September.
The nation’s trade deficit widened by $1.2 billion in August to $40.7 billion.
Markit’s PMI Services Index rose 1.3 points to 52.3 in September, while the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index rose 5.7 points to 57.1. The ISM report looks like an outlier, frankly.
Gallup’s U.S. Job Creation Index was unchanged at 33 for September.
The MBA reports that mortgage applications rose 2.9% last week, with purchases down -0.1% but refis up 5.0%.
Gallup’s US Economic Confidence Index rose 1 point to -10 in September.
Redbook reports that last week’s retail sales growth jumped to 1.3% on a year-ago basis, from the previous week’s 0.2%. It was the strongest year-on-year sales growth since the 26 March week.
Motor vehicle sales rose 4.7% in September to a strong 17.8 million annual rate.
Construction spending weakened in August, falling -0.7%, bringing the year-over-year rate down to -0.3%.
The ISM Manufacturing Index bounced back from a below-50 August, rising to a positive 51.5 for September.
Markit’s PMI Manufacturing Index fell -0.5 points to 51.5 for September.
Gallup’s US Consumer Spending Measure shows Americans’ self-reported daily spending was unchanged at $91 in September.
If this week’s podcast had a single thread running through all our topics…it would be interesting and listenable. But it doesn’t. So…Anyway, we talk about Donald Trump’s inability to forego responding to criticism. We know exactly what kind of horrific disaster a Hillary presidency will be, but we don’t know what kind of horrific calamity a Trump presidency would be, though we know it would be one. How can we protect Cuba’s unique culture of poverty and despair from being lost to tourism and money? Dale updates us on the status of his Volvo, and tells Michael what car to buy. We then just swap car stories for an hour. We finish up by discussing how women fail to understand that men live in a world where a smart mouth can get you punched.
This week’s podcast is up on the Podcast page.
The final revision of 2nd Quarter GDP came in at 1.4% annualized growth, while the GDP Price index was 2.3%.
The nation’s deficit in good trade fell to -58.4 billion in August from $-59.3 billion in July, as exports rose 0.7% and imports rose 0.3%.
Wholesale inventories fell -0.1% in August, with non-durables down -0.6% and durables up 0.1%.
The NAR’s Pending Home Sales Index fell a sharp -2.4% to 108.5 in August, with 3 of the 4 regions showing declines.
Initial weekly jobless claims rose 3,000 to 254,000. The 4-week average fell 2,250 to 256,000. Continuing claims fell 46,000 to 2.062 million.
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose 0.3 points to 41.6 in the latest week.
The Fed’s balance sheet fell $-21.0 billion last week, with total assets of $4.452 trillion. Reserve bank credit fell $-1.6 billion.
The Fed reports that M2 money supply rose by $10.9 billion in the latest week.
Durable goods orders were unchanged in August, with ex-transportation orders down -0.4%, but core capital goods orders up 0.6%. On a year-over-year basis, durables orders are down -1.3% from a year ago, with ex-transportation orders down -1.1% and core capital goods orders down -3.1%.
The MBA reports that mortgage applications fell -0.7% last week, with purchases up 1.0%, but refis down -2.9%.
New home sales fell -7.6% in August, to a 609,000 annual rate. July’s reading was revised upwards, however, by 5,000, resulting in a July increase of 13.8%.
The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey for September rose from 4.5 to 16.7.
What used to be called the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, then the S&P Case-Shiller HPI, and, as of today, is called the S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI was unchanged in July, while the year-over-year change fell -0.1% to 5.0%.
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index rose 3.0 points to 104.1 in September.
The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index rose 3 points to a still-negative -8 in September.
State Street’s Investor Confidence Index rose 5.8 points in September to 95.5, mainly on increased investor confidence in Asia.
The PMI Services Flash for September rose 1.0 points to 51.9.
Redbook reports that last week’s US retail sales growth was unchanged at a sluggish 0.2% on a year-ago basis.