Dale Franks’ QandO posts
The Atlanta Fed’s Business Inflation Expectations survey for January shows businesses expect 1.7% inflation for the next year.
The Markit PMI manufacturing index flash for February is up 0.5 points from the final January reading, coming in at 54.3.
Initial weekly jobless claims fell 21,000 to 283,000. The 4-week average fell 6,500 to 283,250. Continuing claims rose 58,000 to 2.425 million.
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose 0.3 points to 44.6 in the latest week.
The general business conditions index of the Philadelphia Fed’s Business Outlook Survey fell 1.1 points to 5.2 in February.
The Conference Board’s index of leading indicators rose 0.2% in January.
The Fed’s balance sheet fell $-4.8 billion last week, with total assets of $4.497 trillion. Reserve bank credit rose $11.5 billion.
The Fed reports that M2 money supply fell by $-9.8 billion in the latest week.
Net foreign demand for long-term US securities rose $35.4 billion in December, mainly on US selling of foreign securities. Foreign accounts were actually net sellers in the month.
The MBA reports that mortgage applications fell for the 5th straight week, down -13.2%, with purchases down 7.0% and refis down 16%.
Housing starts fell -2.0%in January, to a 1.065 million annual rate, though that is an 18.7% increase over a year ago.
The Producer Price Index for Final Demand fell -0.8% in January, while prices less food and energy fell -0.1%. Prices less food, energy & trade services fell -0.3%. Overall, prices for Goods fell -2.1% while Services prices fell -0.2%. Prices on a year-over-year basis:
PPI-FD less food & energy: 1.5%
PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services: 0.9%
PPI-FD Goods: -3.9%
PPI-FD Services: 1.9%
Redbook reports retail sales rose 3.2% on a year-ago basis, up from last week’s 2.1%.
The Fed reports that Industrial production rose 0.2% in January, while capacity utilization in the nation’s factories fell -0.3% to 79.4%. Manufacturing output rose 0.2%.
The Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey fell to 7.78 in February from January’s 9.95.
The NAHB housing market index fell -2 points in February to 55.
E-Commerce sales from the 4th Quarter of 2014 fell to 2.3%, down from 3.6% in the 3rd Quarter. Year-on-year, sales are up 14.6%, while e-commerce sales to 0.1% to account for 6.7% of all retail sales.
This week’s extension of the Ace of Spades HQ podcast is up on the Podcast page.
January export prices fell -2.0%, while import prices fell -2.8%, fueled mainly be falling oil prices, and stoking deflation fears. On a year-over-year basis, export prices are down -5.4% while import prices have declined -8.0%.
The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell -4.5 points to 93.6 in February.
Initial weekly jobless claims rose 25,000 to 304,000. The 4-week average fell 3,000 to 289,750. Continuing claims fell 51,000 to 2.354 million.
Retail sales fell -0.8% overall in January, while sales less autos fell -0.8%, and sales less autos and gas rose 0.2%.
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell -1.2 points to 44.3 in the latest week.
Business inventories rose only 0.1% in December, but business sales fell a very sharp -0.9%. The stock-to-sales ratio jumped to a troubling 1.33, the highest since July 2009.
The Fed’s balance sheet rose $1.4 billion last week, with total assets of $4.502 trillion. Reserve bank credit rose $0.9 billion.
The Fed reports that M2 money supply jumped by $71.6 billion in the latest week.
The MBA reports that mortgage applications fell -9.0% last week, with purchases down -7.0% and refis down 10.0%.
The US Treasury reports that the January budget deficit was $-17.5 billion, which is 6.2% higher than a year ago. In January, receipts rose 8.7%, while spending rose 8.3%. For the US Government’s fiscal year so far, the total deficit now stands at $-194.2 billion vs. $-182.8 billion a year ago.
Redbook reports retail sales slowed substantially last week, to 2.1% on a year-ago basis, from last week’s 3.8%.
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell from December’s very strong 100.4 to a respectable 97.9 in January.
Wholesale inventories rose 0.1% in December, while a -0.4% drop in sales pushed the stock-to-sales ratio up to 1.22, the highest since 2009.