Dale Franks’ QandO posts
The MBA reports that mortgage applications fell -3.3% last week, with purchases down -7.0% and refis unchanged.
Consumer prices fell -0.3% overall in November, while the CPI less food and energy rose 0.1%. On a year over year basis, the CPI is up 1.3%, while the core rate is up 1.7%.
The nation’s current account deficit widened by $1.9 billion to $-100.3 billion in the 3rd Quarter from a slightly revised $98.4 billion in the 2nd Quarter.
The Federal Open Markets Committee ended their meeting today, with the Fed Funds Rate target left unchanged at 0% to 0.25%.
The FOMC’s newest GDP forecasts: 2014: 2.3 to 2.4%; 2015: 2.6 to 3.0%; 2016: 2.5 to 3.0%; 2017: 2.3 to 2.5%; longer run: 2.0 to 2.2%. Essentally, sub-par economic growth will continue for as long as can be forecast.
ICSC-Goldman reports weekly retail sales rose 3.0%, but fell to a weak 1.1% on a year-over-year basis. Conversely, Redbook reports retail sales rose 4.2% on a year-ago basis.
Housing starts fell -1.6% in November, erasing most of October’s 1.7% increase, as starts fell to a 1.028 million annual rate. Similarly, building permits, an indicator of future activity, slipped -5.2%, following a 5.9% jump in October.
The Markit PMI manufacturing index flash for December fell -1.0 points to 53.7.
The Empire State manufacturing index for December fell more than 13 points to -3.58, the first negative reading since January, 2013.
November industrial production rose 1.3%, while capacity utilization in the nation’s factories rose 0.9% to 80.1%.
The Housing Market Index fell 1 point in December, to a still-solid 57.
Foreign demand for long-term US securities fell slightly in October, down $-1.4 billion, following September’s $164.3 billion gain.
The last podcast of 2014 is up on the podcast page. Merry Christmas, everybody!
Producer Prices for Final Demand fell -0.2% in November, while prices less food and gas were unchanged. Goods prices fell -0.7% while prices for services rose 0.1%. PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services was also unchanged. The decline in goods prices was led mainly by falling energy prices. On a year-over-year basis, the PPI-FD rose 1.4%, while prices less food and energy rose 1.7% and prices less food, energy & trade services rose 1.6%. Goods prices are up 0.4% and services prices rose 1.9%.
The Reuters/University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index jumped a full 5 points to 93.8 in December.
November retail sales were stronger than expected, rising 0.7% overall, 0.5% less gas, and 0.6% less gas and autos.
Export prices fell -1.0% in November, while import prices fell -1.5%. On a year-over-year basis, export prices are down -1.9% while import prices are down -2.3%.
Business inventories rose 0.2% in October, while business sales fell -0.1%. The stock-to-sales ratio was unchanged at 1.30.
Initial weekly jobless claims fell 3,000 to 294,000. The 4-week average rose 250 to 299,250. Continuing claims rose 142,000 to 2.514 million.
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose points to a seven-year high of 41.3 in the latest week.
The Fed’s balance sheet rose $2.7 billion last week, with total assets of $4.489 trillion. Reserve bank credit rose $1.8 billion.
The Fed reports that M2 money supply rose by $35.6 billion in the latest week.
The MBA reports that mortgage applications rose 7.3% last week, with purchases up 1.0% and refis up 13.0%.
Information revenue growth rose 1.0% in the 3rd Quarter of 2014. Year-on-year, information revenue rose 5.0%.
The US Treasury’s deficit fell from $-121.7 Billion in October to $-56.8 billion in November.
The NFIB’s small business optimism index jumped 2.0 points in November to 98.1, the highest since February 2007.
Wholesale inventories rose 0.4% in October, while a 0.2% rise in sales left the stock-to-sales ratio unchanged for a third month at 1.19.
ICSC-Goldman reports weekly chain store sales fell -1.5%, and rose a weak 2.9% on a year-over-year basis. Redbook also reports retail sales were weak, up only 3.9% on a year-ago basis, down -0.9% from last week.
After a 2-week hiatus for holidays and vacations, we’re back! The new podcast is up.