Free Markets, Free People

Dale Franks

Dale Franks’ QandO posts

Economic Statistics for 8-9 Dec 15

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 1.3 points in November to 94.8.

Redbook reports that last week’s retail sales fell back to a weak 1.9% on a year-ago basis, from the previous week’s Black Friday-induced 3.9%.

The Labor Dept’s JOLTS report fell substantially, as job openings fell from 5.562 million in September to 5.383 million in October.

The MBA reports that mortgage applications rose 1.2% last week, with purchases up only 0.04% but refis up 4.0%.

Wholesale inventories fell 0.1% in October, while no change for sales kept the stock-to-sales ratio unchanged at 1.31. 


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Economic Statistics for 7 Dec 15

Gallup’s US Consumer Spending Measure reports that Americans’ daily, self-reported spending was unchanged at $92 in November.

The Fed’s Labor Market Conditions Index fell from 1.6 to 0.5 in November.

Consumer credit rose $16.0 billion in October, but revolving credit rose only at a barely-positive $0.2 billion. Non-revolving credit gains were mainly in auto and school loans.


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Economic Statistics for 4 Dec 15

211,000 net new jobs were created in November, as the unemployment rate held steady at 5.0%. The bar force participation rate increased by 0.1% to 62.5%. Average hourly earnings increased by 0.2%, while the average workweek remained unchanged at 34.5 hours.

The nation’s trade deficit increased from $-40.8 billion in September to $-43.9 billion in October.


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Economic Statistics for 3 Dec 15

Chain stores are posting slightly better year-on-year sales rates in November, hinting at better news in the government’s official report.

Challenger’s count of layoff announcements fell nearly -20,000 in November to 30,953 for the lowest reading since September, 2014.

The Gallup Good Jobs Rate for November fell -0.4% to 44.9%.

Factory orders bounced back from September’s -1.0% drop, coming in with an increase of 1.5% in October.

The PMI Services Index rose 1.3 points to 56.1 in November. Conversely, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index fell -3.2 points to 55.9.

Initial weekly jobless claims rose 9,000 to 269,000. The 4-week average fell 750 to 269,250. Continuing claims rose 6,000 to 2.161 million.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell -1.3 points to 39.6 in the latest week, the fifth drop in six weeks.

The Fed’s balance sheet rose $1.0 billion last week, with total assets of $4.478 trillion. Reserve bank credit fell $-11.4 billion.

The Fed reports that M2 money supply rose by $19.8 billion in the latest week.


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Economic Statistics for 1 Dec 15

Automobiles fairly flew off the dealers’ lots in November, as auto sales rose to a 18.2 million annual pace, a 12-year high.

Redbook reports that last week’s retail sales rose to 3.9% on a year-ago basis, from the previous week’s weak 1.5%. Thanks, Black Friday!

Markit’s PMI Manufacturing Index slowed from 54.1 to 52.8 in November.

The ISM Manufacturing Index slowed from a barely positive 50.1 to a contractionary 48.6 in November.

Construction pending rose a solid 1.0% in October, and is up 13.0% on a year-over-year basis.

The Gallup Economic Confidence Index remained unchanged at 013 in November.


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Economic Statistics for 30 Nov 15

The Chicago PMI plunged from 56.2 to 48.7 in November. A reading below 50 indicates economic contraction, but this is a volatile index.

Pending home sales rose only 0.2% in October to 107.7, reflecting soft home sales.

The Dallas Fed Manufacturing survey improved, but still remained in negative territory in November, rising from -12.7 to -4.9.


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Economic Statistics for 24-25 Nov 15

It’s a massive set of statistical releases, as the Thanksgiving holidays have compressed the week’s releases into the day before the holiday. Without further ado, therefore…

The first revision to 3rd Quarter GDP added 0.6%, coming to a 2.1% annualized rate of growth. The GDP Price Index was revised up to 1.3%.

The nation’s trade gap in goods came in at a lower-than-expected deficit of $58.4 billion in October. 

Corporate profits in the 3rd Quarter were revised to $1.786 trillion, up a year-on-year 1.4%.

Redbook reports that last week’s retail sales rose to 1.5% on a year-ago basis, from the previous week’s 1.2%, as sales weakness continues.

The S&P/Case-Schiller Home Price Index rose 0.6% in September, and is up 5.5% from the previous year.

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index sank from 97.6 to 90.4 in November, on weak confidence in the jobs market.

The Richmond Fed Manufacturing index dropped -2 points to -3 in November.

The State Street Investor Confidence Index dropped -7.5 points to 106.8 in November.

The MBA reports that mortgage applications fell -3.2% last week, with purchases down -1.0% and refis down -5.0%.

Durable goods orders rose 3.0% in October, mainly on aircraft orders coming out of the Dubai air show, but the previous several months of decline means orders are only up 0.5% from last year. Ex-transportation orders rose 0.5%, but are down -2.4% from a year ago. Core capital goods rose 1.3% and are up 0.4% from last year.

Initial weekly jobless claims fell 12,000 to 260,000. The 4-week average fell 750 to 271,000. Continuing claims rose 34,000 to 2.207 million.

Personal Income rose 0.4% in October, while spending rose 0.1%. The PCE price index rose 0.1% overall, but was unchanged, ex-food and energy. On a year-over-year basis, the PCE Price index is up 0.2% at the headline level, and 1.3% at the core.

The FHFA House Price Index for September rose 0.8%, increasing in all nine regions of the country.

The PMI Services Flash for November rose 2.1 points to 56.5.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell -0.3 points to 40.9 in the latest week.

Following the previous month’s -12.9% drop, new home sales in October rose 10.7% to a 495,000 annual rate.

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index fell -1.8 points to 91.3 for November.


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Officer Friendly is Dead

The Chicago Police Department was forced to release a video today—one that they went to court to keep from publicly releasing—of the shooting of 17-year-old Laquan McDonald. He was shot last October by Officer Jason Van Dyke. Despite the fact that Mr. McDonald fell to the ground after being shot once by Officer Van Dyke, Van Dyke proceeded to shoot Mr. McDonald 15 more times as he lay on the ground, then proceeded to reload his pistol, apparently to shoot some more, until stopped by his fellow officers. Thanks to this video, Officer Van Dyke is now under charge for 1st Degree Murder, which as far as I can tell from the video, is entirely appropriate. As I write this, protests are happening on the streets of Chicago.

This video has prompted further thought.

Spbadge

On 14 September, 1984, I graduated from the USAF Security Police Academy at Lackland AFB, in San Antonio, TX. On that day, I was issued Security Police badge number H3329. For the next decade I wore that badge while working as a security specialist, patrolman, police supervisor, desk sergeant and, somewhat to my surprise, as an Air Base Ground Defense Specialist—an infantry grunt—since Security Police were tasked with providing defense of air bases against ground forces.

The recruiter failed to mention that last bit when I signed up.

I learned a lot during that time, like how to de-escalate conflict and use verbal judo to disarm hostility. I learned about use of force, and to always use the absolute minimum of force necessary to effect an arrest. You’d think that military police would have a more leeway than civilians to knock heads, and deliver a little street justice, but that’s not true. We were held to high standards, on duty and off, and were expected to meet those standards. And we knew, without question, that any use of force on our part would be thoroughly investigated to ensure that it was justified, and that we would be severely punished if it was judged excessive.

We’d go to work every day decked out in crisply starched shirts, razor-creased pants, mirror-shiny shoes, carrying a loaded pistol or rifle and given the authority to use those weapons, if necessary, to arrest or detain anyone of any rank. In return, we’d adhere to rigorous standards of appearance, behavior, and conduct in exercising that authority. That was the deal. I can remember a number of fellows who couldn’t keep their end of that deal, and finished their short careers handing out ping-pong balls at the rec hall as Recreational Service Specialists.

After I left the service, I worked part-time for a number of years in Orange County, doing armed, high-risk security in gang areas. Again, we were required to wear sharp uniforms, and maintain high standards of professionalism.  Even though we regularly had to detain gang-bangers, druggies, and other riffraff, not once did we engage in any excessive use of force, perforce being more limited to persuasion and advice than head-knocking.

Security

That’s me, second from the left. All of us were either ex-military police, or graduates of a California POST academy, except for the fellow in the middle, who was attending the Academy at Golden West at the time this photo was taken. A few months later, he graduated, and started with Westminster PD.

That Sig-Sauer P229 I’m carrying, by the way, is the best duty pistol I ever carried. Loved that pistol. Great trigger pull. 

Ah, memories.

But, that was long ago, and much has changed.

I was at the shopping mall in my little suburb of San Diego recently, and a local police officer was walking through the mall on patrol. He was decked out in combat boots, black BDUs, full body armor and SAPI plate, and a Molle vest covered with flex-cuffs, extra magazines, and other gear. His uniform was far more appropriate for a patrol in Fallujah than a suburban shopping mall in a community where the rate of crime has declined by half over the past 20 years.

That change is, I think, symbolic of a deeper, more fundamental change to policing that has occurred.

From the 1960s to the 1980s, many police departments participated in the “Officer Friendly” program, whereby elementary school children were introduced to amiable police officers, given coloring books that contained exhortations to remember that police officers were their friends, and were generally given to understand what wonderful fellows the local constables were. Now, of course, “Officer Friendly” is the sarcastic name given to abusive police officers.

I get the sense that police today are quicker to use force, less interested in de-escalating conflict, and far quicker to take offense to any suspected questioning of their authority. There seems to be a new class of crime today, one that isn’t actually the subject of any legislation. I call this offense “Insufficient Servility.” 

There is a web site that you should read regularly. It’s called Photography is Not a Crime, and it catalogs, on a daily basis, the darker underside of policing in America today. It contains interesting stories on a regular basis. For instance, just culling from today:

  • There are the NYPD cops who, after making some aggressive arrests at a restaurant, returned a bit later to delete the restaurant’s surveillance video.
  • Or the homeless fellow who was beaten to death by the Fullerton, CA, police.
  • Or the Delaware State Police, who decided they needed to use a SWAT team to serve a warrant on a home that was occupied only by a dog, which, of course, they shot.
  • Perhaps you’d be interested in the story of the San Antonio man who was taking photos of his wife’s business, when he was jumped by three SAPD officers without warning, and left paralyzed from the beating they gave him, thinking he was someone else.

Even more amazing is how often the police escape all but the most minimal of punishments—if they are punished at all—for incidents like this. Sure, you’ll be in serious trouble if you’re videotaped unloading an entire magazine into a suspect on the ground. Absent that, however, you have an excellent chance of not being charged with any crime at all, usually because the fellow you shot started to “reach for his waistband”. 

We are told of course, that there are bad apples in any basket, and most officers are very professional. In other words, the bad cops are a tiny minority of police officers. Much like Jihadists are a tiny minority of Muslims, presumably.

But now that video cameras have become ubiquitous, we sure are seeing a lot of video of this tiny minority, and as far as I can tell, the vast majority of the good officers don’t seem to be falling all over themselves to report and discipline the bad apples. In other contexts, that lack of enthusiasm might be referred to as “being an accessory”.

And I wonder, if there hadn’t been video of chunks of pavement and Mr. McDonald’s tissue being flung into the air from the impact of Officer Van Dyke’s bullets, if Officer Van Dyke would ever have been charged with anything. I wonder why we’re routinely using SWAT teams and no-knock entry for warrant service. I wonder why the new term “puppycide” has entered the lexicon. And, I wonder why, when violent crime has declined by 50% since 1993, police officers are shooting as many people today as they did when violent crime was at its height.

Policing, we are told, is a tough and dangerous job. Not as dangerous as, say, being a taxi driver or construction worker, but, still, dangerous, and they need to be proactive to protect themselves. Maybe so, but, frankly, I have little sympathy with that argument. No one is holding a gun to their head, so to speak, to remain a police officer. And in return for that danger, they are among the most highly-paid blue-collar workers, and certainly have among the most generous benefits and retirement.

In short, if the job is too dangerous for you to do in a courteous, professional manner…do something else. Otherwise, I suggest you find the physical courage to do the job properly, and deal respectfully with the public, rather than acting as if you were an armed overlord who is due whatever level of servility you judge acceptable, and empowered to punish those who refuse to offer it.

Certainly, it’s unacceptable to disguise cowardice as aggression, which is, I suspect, what Officer Van Dyke is guilty of. In addition to, you know, the murder. Allegedly.

What we should demand—indeed, the minimum we should demand in a free society—are police forces that live and work by the principles of policing laid down by Sir Robert Peel, nearly two hundred years ago, in 1829, when he created the modern police force:

1. The basic mission for which police exist is to prevent crime and disorder as an alternative to the repression of crime and disorder by military force and severity of legal punishment.

2. The ability of the police to perform their duties is dependent upon public approval of police existence, actions, behavior and the ability of the police to secure and maintain public respect.

3. The police must secure the willing cooperation of the public in voluntary observance of the law to be able to secure and maintain public respect.

4. The degree of cooperation of the public that can be secured diminishes, proportionately, to the necessity for the use of physical force and compulsion in achieving police objectives.

5. The police seek and preserve public favor, not by catering to public opinion, but by constantly demonstrating absolutely impartial service to the law, in complete independence of policy, and without regard to the justice or injustice of the substance of individual laws; by ready offering of individual service and friendship to all members of society without regard to their race or social standing, by ready exercise of courtesy and friendly good humor; and by ready offering of individual sacrifice in protecting and preserving life.

6. The police should use physical force to the extent necessary to secure observance of the law or to restore order only when the exercise of persuasion, advice and warning is found to be insufficient to achieve police objectives; and police should use only the minimum degree of physical force which is necessary on any particular occasion for achieving a police objective.

7. The police at all times should maintain a relationship with the public that gives reality to the historic tradition that the police are the public and the public are the police; the police are the only members of the public who are paid to give full-time attention to duties which are incumbent on every citizen in the intent of the community welfare.

8. The police should always direct their actions toward their functions and never appear to usurp the powers of the judiciary by avenging individuals or the state, or authoritatively judging guilt or punishing the guilty.

9. The test of police efficiency is the absence of crime and disorder, not the visible evidence of police action in dealing with them.

 If the police want to make their jobs less dangerous, then they need to pay particular attention to Principle #2, because if they lose public respect—which I submit they are moving awfully close to losing—their job will become effectively impossible.

The police are given wide authority, and the authorization to use deadly force, when necessary. They owe us, at minimum, 1) a commitment to uphold the very highest standards of professional behavior, including using the absolute minimum of force necessary, and 2) to ruthlessly extirpate from their ranks those who fail to meet those standards. Anything else creates, to a greater or lesser degree, a police state.

In the interim, however, my advice to you is to avoid committing the crime of Insufficient Servility, and to never, ever, “reach for your waistband”. Because we all know how that will turn out.


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