Free Markets, Free People

Dale Franks

Dale Franks’ QandO posts

Economic Statistics for 5 Sep 14

Today’s only economic release is a big one, and it’s disappointing.

The Employment Situation report shows only 142,000 net new jobs were created in July, well below expectations. The Unemployment rate fell -0.1% to 6.1%, though sadly, this is mainly because the civilian labor force fell by 64,000 this month, while the number of persons not in the labor force rose by 268,000. This brought the labor force participation rate down to 62.8%, matching the lowest participation rate since 1978. Essentially, the number of people leaving the labor force was twice the number of new jobs created. In addition, the Household Survey indicates an additional  80,000 workers became unemployed in the last month. Average hourly earnings rose 0.2%, while average weekly hours were unchanged at 34.5 hours.


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Economic Statistics for 4 Sep 14

The US trade deficit in July shrank $0.3 billion to $-40.5 billion. Exports rose 0.9%, while imports rose 0.7%.

Nonfarm productivity growth for the 2nd Quarter of 2014  rose at a 2.3% annualized rate, as unit labor costs fell -0.1%.

The ISM’s Non-Manufacturing Index rose 0.9 points in August, to 59.6.

The JP Morgan Global Composite PMI fell -0.4 points to 55.1 in August, while the Global Services PMI fell -0.5 points to 55.5.

Chain stores are reporting mostly rising rates of year-on-year sales growth in August compared to July, due to solid back-to-school sales.

Challenger’s Job Cut Report layoff count for August totals 40,010, vice 46,887 in July and 50,462 a year ago.

ADP estimates that private payroll growth in August was 204,000 jobs.

Gallup’s U.S. Payroll to Population employment rate fell -0.2% to 44.9%.

Weekly initial jobless claims rose 4,000 to 302,000. The 4-week average rose 3,000 to 302,750. Continuing claims fell 64,000 to a new recovery low of 2.464 million.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose 0.4 points to 37.7 in the latest week.

The Fed’s balance sheet rose $1.9 billion last week, with total assets of $4.416 trillion. Total reserve bank credit fell by $-2.5 billion.

The Fed reports that M2 money supply rose $14.5 billion in the latest week.


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Economic Statistics for 3 Sep 14

August motor vehicle sales rose a solid 6.4% to a 17.5 million annual rate.

Factory orders jumped 10.5% in July—all on aircraft sales. Ex-transportation orders actually fell -0.8%.

The Fed’s newest Beige Book, released today, still rates US economic growth as modest to moderate.

ICSC-Goldman says weekly retail sales were unchanged in the latest week, but up 4.8% over last year. Redbook’s retail sales reading shows 4.9% year-over-year sales growth.

The MBA reports mortgage applications rose 0.2% last week, with purchases down -2.0% but refis up 1.0%.

Gallup’s U.S. Job Creation Index was unchanged in August at 28, holding at a 6-year high.


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Loss of Will, Continued

In the comments to my previous post, “The Shark” writes:

What is civilization? Sanitation, clean water, viable infrastructure, decent standard of living? England has all that yet I don’t think it qualifies as civilization anymore. Watch it burn? No need, it’s decaying not-so-slowly.

The thing is that “sanitation, clean water, viable infrastructure, decent standard of living” and other amenities are not the characteristics of civilization. They are merely the products of it. They are what results from civilization, i.e., a standard of law, culture, science, and domestic peace that allows “sanitation, clean water, viable infrastructure, decent standard of living” and other amenities to be built.

Once a civilization has built these amenities, they have a physical capacity that everyone can use long after the civilization itself collapses. The men of the Middle Ages couldn’t build the Roman roads–in fact, they literally had no idea how the Romans had built them–but they still used them. So the question is not whether you still have the infrastructure amenities built by your predecessors, but whether your civilization is still improving on them and building new ones.

For instance, forty years ago, the United States sent 2 men to the surface of the moon every eight months or so from 1969 to 1972. In the space of a single decade, we went from having no manned space capability at all, to having multiple manned lunar landings. Forty years later, we don’t have a vehicle capable of sending a single American into earth orbit. We have the same manned space capability now that we had in 1960, 54 years ago.

Think about that for a minute, and what implications for our civilization we can draw from that decline.


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Loss of Will

Via Instapundit, I saw this story which irked me. It’s an AP story, so I won’t quote it directly. You can go read it if you want. The upshot is that UN forces were besieged by Syrian Rebels in the Golan heights.The commander of the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force, or UNDOF, who supervises the UN peacekeeping forces in Golan, ordered the peacekeepers to surrender to the rebels.

Last week, the detachment from Fiji were surrounded by the Rebels and surrendered, and are still prisoners of the rebels. The rebels then besieged the Philippine detachment of UNDOF. As part of the negotiations to secure the release of the Fijian peacekeepers, the UNDOF commander told the the Philippine detachment to surrender as well. The Philippine detachment, conversely, told the UNDOF commander to go screw, and…extricated themselves from the siege, during which time they were…ahem…forced to fire on the rebels in self defense.

So, first off, kudos to the Philippine troops, and their big boss, Gen. Gregorio Pio Catapang, who said that Philippine soldiers do not surrender their firearms.

Second, how useless is the UN and its “Peacekeeping Forces”? Rebel attacks have been on the rise, causing several UNDOF member nations to withdraw their troops. These withdrawals, have, surprisingly, not kept the peace, and rebel attacks have been on the rise.

The UN is supposed to provide peacekeeping troops to, if necessary, enforce the rules of decent civilization on barbarians. Clearly, they are a failure at that. One can’t help but remember that in other, happier days, the defenders of civilization, when attacked by barbarians, would keep the peace by hunting down and killing the barbarians to the last man, killing him, then killing his pet goat, as Ralph Peters has put it. Not any more, apparently. The job of UN peacekeeping has seemingly been reduced to molesting underage girls and surrendering to barbarians.

The thing is, there are men who only want to see the world burn. To surrender to them does not gain peace, but gives them the world.

We spoke about piracy at sea on the podcast this week, and how, after obliterating it in the 19th century, we have allowed it to flourish in the 21st. We are squandering–indeed have mostly squandered–the legacy of of civilization, and with it the notion that civilization must be defended. There is never a shortage of barbarians, but there is an increasing shortage of nations willing to defend against them with the only thing barbarians understand: naked, brutal, death-dealing violence.

I do not see a bright future for civilization if this continues. Future generations may very well regard us as men of the Middle Ages did the Romans, wondering how they built all those roads and aqueducts.

Civilization may not be perfect, but as the example of ISIS/ISIL in Iraq is instructing us, it is generally better than the alternative.


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Economic Statistics for 2 Sep 14

Construction spending rose 1.8% in July, and is up 8.2% on a year-over-year basis.

The ISM Manufacturing Index rose 1.9 points in August to 59.0.

Markit’s August PMI manufacturing Index rose 2.1 points to 57.9.

The J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI rose a slight 0.1 points to 52.6 in August.

Gallup’s self-reported Consumer Spending measure was unchanged at $94 average daily spending.

The Gallup Economic Confidence Index rose 1 point to -16 for August.


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Economic Statistics for 29 Aug 14

Personal Income rose 0.2% in July, while consumer spending fell -0.1%. The PCE price index rose 0.1% at both the headline and core levels. On a year-over-year basis, personal income is up 4.3%, while personal spending is up 3.6%. The PCE Price index is up 1.6% at the headline level, and 1.5% at the core.

The Chicago Purchasing Manager’s Index jumped from 52.6 to 64.3 in July.

The Reuter’s/University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index for August rose 3.3 points to 82.5.


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