Dale Franks’ QandO posts
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A weak 142,000 net new jobs were created in September, far below expectations. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.1%. Average hourly earnings were unchanged, and average weekly hours declined -0.1 hours to 34.5 hours. The labor force participation rate fell -0.2% to 62.4% as 236,000 people left the labor force. The labor force participation rate is the lowest since October, 1977, continuing the decline in the labor force that began in 2000.
This decline is why I no longer calculate the unemployment rate using pre-crisis average LFPR. We no longer know what the “correct” LFPR is, or should be.
Factory Orders declined -1.7% in August, with non-durables down -1.1% and durable goods down -2.3%. Core capital goods fell -0.8%. This is a very weak report all around.
September motor vehicle sales surged 2.3% to a far better than expected 18.2 million annual rate.
Challenger reports that announced layoffs reached 58,887 in September, and the YTD number of 493,431 is now higher than all of last year.
The PMI manufacturing index was 53.1 in September, little changed from August.
The ISM Manufacturing index dropped -0.9 points to a barely positive 50.2, the lowest reading since May, 2013.
Construction spending rose 0.7% in August, and is up 13.7% on a year-over-year basis.
Gallup’s US Payroll to Population rate was unchanged in September at 45.3%.
Initial weekly jobless claims rose 10,000 to 277,000. The 4-week average fell 1,000 to 270,750. Continuing claims fell 23,000 to 2.219 million.
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose 1.1 points to 43.0 in the latest week.
The Fed’s balance sheet fell $-13.4 billion last week, with total assets of $4.484 trillion. Reserve bank credit fell $-8.5 billion.
The Fed reports that M2 money supply rose by $34.0 billion in the latest week.
The MBA reports that mortgage applications fell -6.7% last week, with purchases down -6.0% and refis down -8.0%.
ADP reports an estimate of 200,000 net new private-sector jobs for September.
The Chicago PMI dropped -5.7 points to 48.7. A reading below 50 indicates a contraction. This is a volatile indicator, however, it is often seen as a predictor of the national PMI, which is due out tomorrow.
Redbook reports that last week’s retail sales were unchanged from the previous week at a poor 0.9% on a year-ago basis.
The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index fell -0.2% in July, but is still up 5.0% on a year-over-year basis.
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence index for September rose 1.5 points to 103.0.
The State Street Investor Confidence Index rose 7.9 points in September, to a strong 116.6.
Personal income rose 0.3% in August, while spending rose 0.4%. The PCE Price index was unchanged overall, but up 0.1% at the core.
The Pending Home Sales Index fell a disappointing -1.4% in August, to 109.4.
The Dallas Fed Manufacturing survey rose 6.3 points, but remains deeply negative, along with all the other Fed indicators, at -9.5.
On this, the most holy night of John Boeher’s resignation announcement, we rejoice that the Republic is saved. Hear our joy by downloading the latest podcast from the podcast page.
The final revision to 2nd Quarter GDP came in with an increase to 3.9% annualized, while the GDP Price index was unchanged at 2.1%.
Corporate profits in the second quarter came in at a revised $1.845 trillion, up a year-on-year 8.5%.
The PMI Service flash for September rose 0.4 points to 55.6.
The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index jumped 1.5 points in September to 87.2.
Durable Goods orders fell 0-.2% in August, while ex-transportation orders were unchanged. Core capital goods orders also fell -0.2%. On a year-over-year basis, Durable goods orders are down -2.3%, ex-trasportation orders are down -3.9%, and core capital goods are up 0.8%.
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index joins other Fed indexes in moving to negative territory, falling from 0.34 to -0.41 in August.
The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index rose just 1 point to -8 in September.
New home sales hit a surprising annual rate of 552,000, the highest since February, 2008. Supply to sales dropped to 4.7 months.
Initial weekly jobless claims rose 3,000 to 267,000. The 4-week average fell 750 to 271,750. Continuing claims fell 25,000 to 2.242 million.
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose 1.7 points to 41.9 in the latest week.
The Fed’s balance sheet rose $9.7 billion last week, with total assets of $4.498 trillion. Reserve bank credit rose $10.9 billion.
The Fed reports that M2 money supply rose by $36.7 billion in the latest week.