The MBA reports that mortgage applications fell -6.6% last week, with purchases down -5.0% and refis down -7.0%.
The FOMC Meeting ended today, with the announcement that interest rates would remain unchanged, with a Fed Funds target rate of 0% to 0.25%. The FOMC characterized the economy as “expanding at a moderate pace”, and the job market as “improving”.
ICSC-Goldman reports weekly retail sales rose 0.3%, and rose 2.8% on a year-over-year basis. Redbook reports retail sales rose 4.4% on a year-ago basis.
September durable goods orders fell for the second straight month, down -1.3% overall, and -0.2% ex-transportation. On a year-over-year basis, orders are up 3.3% and orders excluding transportation are up 7.3%.
The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index for August fell -0.1%, contracting for the fourth straight month. On a year-over-year basis, the index is up 5.6%.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index for October rose to 94.5, the highest since October 2007.
The Richmond Fed manufacturing index rose 6 points to 20 in October.
The State Street Investor Confidence Index came in at 115.1, compared to September’s especially strong reading of 123.9.
The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey slipped -0.3 points in October to a still-strong 10.5, while the production index fell -3.9 points to 13.7.
Market’s PMI Services Flash for October fell -1.2 points to 57.3.
The National Association of Realtors pending home sales index rose 0.3 points to 105.0 in September.
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose 1.5 points to 37.7 in the latest week.
Initial weekly jobless claims rose 17,000 to 283,000. The 4-week average fell 3,000 to 281,000, a 14-year low. Continuing claims fell 38,000 to 2.351 million.
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose strongly from -0.21 to 0.47 in September.
The FHFA purchase only house price index rose 0.5% in August.
The Markit PMI manufacturing index flash for October fell -1.7 points from the final September reading to 56.2.
The Kansas City Fed manufacturing index fell -2 points to 4 in October.
The Fed’s balance sheet rose $7.3 billion last week, with total assets of 4.482 trillion. Reserve bank credit rose $15.2 billion.
The Fed reports that M2 money supply fell by $-39.3 billion in the latest week.
Consumer prices rose 0.1% in September at both the headline and core rates of the CPI. On a year-over-year basis, the CPI is up 1.7%, again at both the core and headline levels.
The MBA reports that, thanks to falling lending rates, mortgage applications rose a sharp 11.6% last week, with purchases down -5.0% but refis up 23.0%.
Want to know what the Berghdal investigation found? You’ll have to wait till after the election. Want to know what your new health insurance rates will be? You’ll have to wait until after the election. Why? Because it appears they both will be unpopular with most of the citizenry.
Interested in what is happening on the immigration front? You’ll have to wait until after the election … however there does seem to be some prep going on as AP reports:
The Homeland Security Department appears to be preparing for an increase in the number of immigrants living illegally in the country to apply for work permits after President Barack Obama announces his long-promised plans for executive actions on immigration reform later this year.
U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services confirmed to The Associated Press that it has published a draft contract proposal to buy the card stock needed to make work permits and Permanent Resident Cards, more commonly known as green cards. The proposal calls for providing material for at least 5 million cards a year, with as many as 9 million “during the initial period … to support possible future immigration reform initiative requirements.” The contract calls for as many 34 million cards over five years.
USCIS, the Homeland Security agency that oversees immigration benefits, produces about 3 million work permits and Green Cards annually, so the new contract would at least provide the Obama administration with the flexibility to issue far more work permits or green cards even if it chose not to exercise that option.
So they’re either ordering a 10 year supply or something is up. ABC’s Rick Klein reports:
Republicans can thank the reliable old federal bureaucracy for their latest little gift-wrapped present. The AP reports that the Department of Homeland Security is soliciting millions of new green cards – yes, the physical paperwork needed for legal status – “to support possible future immigration reform initiative requirements.” That’s right: The federal government is already ordering as many as 34 million new cards over five years to accommodate legal changes that haven’t been announced, much less approved by Congress. If and when this factoid makes its way into a campaign ad or a stump speech, it will be another reminder of the questionable political strategy of the White House deciding to delay immigration action until after the election. You don’t get full credit for not acting if everyone knows you’re about to. And the idea that tax dollars are set to be expended to support a sweeping new policy, before that policy is even announced or enacted? How better to confirm voters’ mistrust in government?
Congress? This president don’t need no stinkin’ Congress. And certainly not one that is run by Republicans. Nope … instead that will provide the perfect excuse (despite the obvious premeditation) to blame the GOP and take unilateral action.
And what will Congress do about such an end run? Well, likely nothing if their history is an indication.
So here we are with a wretched economy, the lowest labor participation rate in decades, stagnant wages and what does it appear our brilliant President is about to do?
That’s why you have to wait till after the election to find out.
ICSC-Goldman reports weekly retail sales were weak, falling -0.3%, and rising only 2.1% on a year-over-year basis. Redbook, conversely, reports retail sales rose 4.1% on a year-ago basis.
Existing home sales rose a solid 2.4% in September, hitting an annualized 5.17 million rate, which was better than expected.
Housing starts for September rebounded 6.3% after August’s 12.8% drop. The pace was at 1.017 million units, topping expectations.
The Reuter’s/University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index rose 1.8 points to 86.4 in the October preliminary reading.
The Fed’s Beige Book report indicates economic growth—again—is modest to moderate. Slowing inflation and weak growth overseas is spurring concern about slower economic growth. There is even talk, based on this report, of another new round of Quantitative Easing.
Reinforcing the Fed’s concerns, Producer Prices for Final Demand fell -0.1% in September, while prices less food and gas—the so-called “core rate”—were unchanged. The PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services also fell 0.1%. Goods prices fell -0.2% and services prices fell -0.1%. On a year-over-year basis, the PPI-FD is up 1.6% at the headline level and 1.8% at the core.
The Treasury reports that a revenue surplus of $105.8 billion in September pushed the FY2014 deficit down to $483.4 billion from $680.2 billion in FY2013.
The October Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations survey shows that businesses expect 1.9% inflation over the next year. This is down from 2.1% in the previous month.
The Empire State manufacturing index for October fell sharply to 6.17 from September’s 5-year high of 27.54.
September retail sales fell a worse-than-expected -0.3% in September. Sales less autos fell -0.2% and sales less autos and gas fell -0.1%. Analysts expected an overall increase of 0.3%.
The MBA reports that mortgage applications rose 5.6% last week, with purchases down -1.0% but refis up 11.0%.