In July, 209,000 net new jobs were created as the unemployment rate rose 0.1% to 6.2%. Weekly earnings were unchanged, as were weekly hours at 34.5. The labor force participation rate increased 0.1% to 62.9%. The real rate of unemployment, assuming a historical average labor force participation rate of 66.2%, is 10.86%, down more than -2% since the 12.03% rate of October 2013.
Both personal income and spending rose 0.4% in June, while the PCE price index rose 0.2%. The core PCE price index rose 0.1%. On a year-over-year basis, the PCE price index is up 1.6% at the headline level and 1.5% at the core.
The Markit PMI manufacturing flash index for July slowed by -1.5 points to 55.8.
The July global manufacturing PMI edged down to a reading of 52.5 from the revised June reading of 52.6.
The July ISM Manufacturing Index rose 1.8 points to 57.1.
The Reuter’s/University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index for July rose 0.5 points to 81.8.
Construction spending unexpectedly fell -1.8% in June. On a year-over-year basis, spending is up 5.5%.
The employment cost index rose 0.7% in the 2nd Quarter of 2014, versus a record low 0.3% rise in Q1.
Challenger reports that the 18,000 layoff announcement from Microsoft inflated the July layoff count to 46,887 vs. 31,434 in June.
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index plunged 10.0 points to 52.6 in July. This is a volatile index, however.
Gallup’s July Payroll to Population employment rate was stable at 45.1%, rising just 0.1% for the month.
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell -1.3 points to 36.3 in the latest week, the lowest level in two months.
Weekly initial jobless claims rose 23,000 to 302,000. The 4-week average fell 2,750 to 297,250. Continuing claims rose 31,000 to 2.539 million.
The Fed’s balance sheet fell $-4.1 billion last week, with total assets of $4.407 trillion. Total reserve bank credit rose by $-0.2 billion.
The Fed reports that M2 money supply rose $23.5 billion in the latest week.
The Commerce Department’s initial GDP estimate for 2Q 2014 came in at a 4.0% annualized rate of growth. The GDP price index rose at an annualized 2.0%. The Commerce Department says the high growth in the quarter is a rebound from the weather-related GDP declines in 1Q.
The Federal Open Markets Committee met today, and left interest rates unchanged, with a Fed Funds target rate of 0.0%-0.25%.
ADP’s estimate for private payroll growth in July is 218,000 jobs. Econoday’s analyst consensus is a bit higher at 235,000.
The MBA reports that mortgage applications fell -2.2% last week. Purchases rose 0.2% but re-fis fell -4.0%.
ICSC-Goldman reports weekly retail sales up 0.2%, and were up 4.6% on a year-over-year basis. Redbook reports a 3.0% rise in retail sales over last year.
The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index continued to fall in May, down -0.3% for the month. On a year-over-year basis, the index is up 9.3%, however.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index is moving steadily to new recovery highs, to 90.9 in July.
The State Street Investor Confidence Index fell to 114.7 in July from a revised 119.3 in June.
The PMI Services flash reading for July fell -0.2 points to 61.0.
The National Association of Realtors’ Pending Home sales index fell -1.1% to 102.7 in June.
The Dallas Fed general business activity index in its Texas manufacturing survey rose 1.3 points in July to 12.7.
Question of the day:
How many times have you heard a Democrat point to the stock market performance as proof of the success of the President’s economic policies? Or the fact that corporate profits are up?
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose 0.1 points to 37.6 in the latest week.
Weekly initial jobless claims fell a surprising 19,000 to 284,000. The 4-week average fell 7,000 to 302,000. Continuing claims fell 8,000 to 2.500 million.
The PMI Manufacturing Index Flash fell from 57.6 to 56.3 in July.
June new home sales fell very sharply to a 406,000 annual rate from May’s 504,000. Prices fell 3.2% to a median price of $273,500.
The Kansas City Fed manufacturing index rose to 9 in July from 6 in June.
The Fed’s balance sheet rose $12.5 billion last week, with total assets of $4.411 trillion. Total reserve bank credit rose $14.7 billion.
The Fed reports that M2 money supply fell $-12.4 billion in the latest week.
In weekly retail sales, Redbook reports a 3.7% increase from the previous year. ICSC-Goldman reports a weekly sales decline of -0.4%, and a slow 2.8% increase on a year-over-year basis.
The Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in June, but only 0.1% less food and energy. On a year-over-year basis, the CPI is up 2.1% overall, and 1.9% less food and energy.
The FHFA House Price Index rose 0.4% in May, and is up 5.5% on a year-over-year basis.
Existing home sales rose a sharp 2.4% in June, to a 5.04 Million annual rate.
The Richmond Fed manufacturing index rose from 3 to 7 in June.