I’m taking a break from my post-election schadenfreude to bring you the same old, boring economic stats. Bruce has already covered the election aftermath well, and I can’t think of much to add, except to note that the President, in his presser this afternoon, assures us that there’s no reason to try and read the tea leaves of this election. It’s true meaning is essentially unknowable. Clearly, there was a lot of anti-incumbent sentiment, but there’s no way for us to really glean any larger implications for the president’s policies from all this. What’s really important now is to learn how the Republicans will reach across the aisle to get things done in a bipartisan fashion.
Anyway, today’s stats:
The MBA reports that mortgage applications fell -2.6% last week, with purchases down -3.0% and refis down -6.0%.
ADP’s estimate for private payroll growth for October is 230,000, which was generally in line with expectations.
Gallup’s U.S. Job Creation Index fell -3 points to 27 for October, down from the six-year high of 30 in September.
The ISM’s Non-Manufacturing index fell -1.5 points to 57.1 in October.
The JP Morgan Global Composite PMI slowed for the third straight month, down -1.3 points to a still-positive 53.6. The Global Services PMI fell -1.6 points to 53.7.
On a side note, I don’t think that both the ADP Employment report, which shows an increase of 17,000 private payroll jobs over last month, and the Gallup Job Creation Index can both be right. We’ll know which one was correct on Friday, with the release of the October Employment Situation.
ICSC-Goldman reports weekly retail sales fell -1.6%, and rose only 1.8% on a year-over-year basis. Redbook reports retail sales rose 3.9% on a year-ago basis, compared with 4.4% in the prior week.
Gallup’s October Economic Confidence Index jumped to a monthly reading of -12 in October–the most positive score since the -12 of July 2013.
The US trade deficit grew by $2.9 billion in September, growing to $43 billion.
September factory orders were better than the previous month’s but still fell by another -0.6%, following August’s -10.1% decline.
Motor vehicle sales came in at a 13 million annual pace, while overall sales are expect to hit a 16.7 million rate.
Gallip’s daily self-reported spending measure averaged $89 in October, versus $87 in September.
The Markit PMI manufacturing index in October fell -1.6 points to 55.9.
Construction spending unexpectedly declined -0.4% in September, and is up only 2.9% from a year ago.
The J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI was unchanged at 52.2 in October.
Personal income rose by 0.2% in September, while personal spending declined by -0.2%. The PCE Price index rose 0.1% at both the headline and core rates. On a year-over-year basis, consumer spending has risen 1.4%, while the PCE Price index has risen 1.5%.
The Employment Cost Index rose 0.7% in the 3rd Quarter of 2014, due mainly to upward pressure on wages and salaries. On a year-over-year basis, the ECI is up 2.2%.
The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index rose nearly 6 points to 66.2 in October.
The Reuter’s/University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index rose half a point to 86.9 in October, the highest since July 2007.
The initial estimate for 3rd Quarter 2014 GDP came in at 3.5% annualized, led by personal consumption expenditures. The GDP price index rose at 1.3% annualized.
Initial weekly jobless claims rose 3,000 to 287,000. The 4-week average fell 250 to 281,000. Continuing claims rose 29,000 to 2.384 million.
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell -0.5 points to 37.2 in the latest week.
The Fed’s balance sheet rose $5.1 billion last week, with total assets of 4.536 trillion. Reserve bank credit rose $14.2 billion.
The Fed reports that M2 money supply rose by $42.5 billion in the latest week.
The MBA reports that mortgage applications fell -6.6% last week, with purchases down -5.0% and refis down -7.0%.
The FOMC Meeting ended today, with the announcement that interest rates would remain unchanged, with a Fed Funds target rate of 0% to 0.25%. The FOMC characterized the economy as “expanding at a moderate pace”, and the job market as “improving”.
ICSC-Goldman reports weekly retail sales rose 0.3%, and rose 2.8% on a year-over-year basis. Redbook reports retail sales rose 4.4% on a year-ago basis.
September durable goods orders fell for the second straight month, down -1.3% overall, and -0.2% ex-transportation. On a year-over-year basis, orders are up 3.3% and orders excluding transportation are up 7.3%.
The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index for August fell -0.1%, contracting for the fourth straight month. On a year-over-year basis, the index is up 5.6%.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index for October rose to 94.5, the highest since October 2007.
The Richmond Fed manufacturing index rose 6 points to 20 in October.
The State Street Investor Confidence Index came in at 115.1, compared to September’s especially strong reading of 123.9.
The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey slipped -0.3 points in October to a still-strong 10.5, while the production index fell -3.9 points to 13.7.
Market’s PMI Services Flash for October fell -1.2 points to 57.3.
The National Association of Realtors pending home sales index rose 0.3 points to 105.0 in September.
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose 1.5 points to 37.7 in the latest week.
Initial weekly jobless claims rose 17,000 to 283,000. The 4-week average fell 3,000 to 281,000, a 14-year low. Continuing claims fell 38,000 to 2.351 million.
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose strongly from -0.21 to 0.47 in September.
The FHFA purchase only house price index rose 0.5% in August.
The Markit PMI manufacturing index flash for October fell -1.7 points from the final September reading to 56.2.
The Kansas City Fed manufacturing index fell -2 points to 4 in October.
The Fed’s balance sheet rose $7.3 billion last week, with total assets of 4.482 trillion. Reserve bank credit rose $15.2 billion.
The Fed reports that M2 money supply fell by $-39.3 billion in the latest week.