Free Markets, Free People

Economy

Economic Statistics for 26 Dec 16

The FHFA House Price Index rose 0.5% in November, and was up 5.9% on a year-over-year basis, while the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index was up 09%, and is up 5.8% on a year-over-year basis.

The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) US Services Flash was unchanged at 53.7 for January.

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index rose 1.6 points to 98.1 in January.

The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index slipped to 2 in January from 6 in December.

The State Street Investor Confidence Index rose 0.5 points to 108.8 in January.

Redbook reports that last week’s retail sales fell to 1.0% on a year-ago basis, from the previous week’s already-soft 1.4%.


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Economic Statistics for 22 Jan 16

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose slightly, to -0.22 in December.

The PMI Manufacturing Index Flash rose 1.4 points in January to 52.7.

Existing home sales jumped 14.7% in December to a 5.460 million annual rate. On a year-over-year basis, sales are up 7.7%.

The Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators fell -0.2% in December following an upward revised 0.5% gain in November.


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Economic Statistics for 21 Jan 16

The Philadelphia Fed Survey gained back some of it’s negative ground in January, rising from -5.9 to -3.5.

Initial weekly jobless claims rose 10,000 to 293,000. The 4-week average rose 14,250 to 285,000. Continuing claims fell 56,000 to 2.228 million.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell -0.4 points to 44.0 in the latest week.

The Fed’s balance sheet fell $-12.9 billion last week, with total assets of $4.489 trillion. Reserve bank credit rose $5.3 billion.

The Fed reports that M2 money supply rose surprisingly sharply, up $173.3 billion in the latest week.


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Economic Statistics for 20 Jan 16

Consumer prices fell -0.1% overall in December, while the core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.1%. On a year-over-year basis, The CPI is up 0.7% overall, and 2.1% at the core.

Housing starts fell -2.5% in December to a 1.149 million annual rate, while building permits fell -3.9% to a 1.232 million rate.

The MBA reports that mortgage applications rose 9.0% last week, with purchases down -2.0% but refis up 19.0%.

Redbook reports that last week’s retail sales growth fell to 1.4% on a year-ago basis, from the previous week’s already-soft 1.7%.


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Economic Statistics for 15 Jan 16

Producer prices fell -0.2% in December, but prices less food and energy rose 0.1%, and prices less food, energy, and trade services rose 0.2%. On a year-over-year basis, the PPI is down -1.0% overall, but up 0.3% in both core categories.

December retail sales fell a disappointing -0.1% overall, -0.1% less autos, and were unchanged less autos and gas. 2015 was a lackluster year.

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey plunged from -4.59 to -19.37 in December, the lowest reading since 2009.

Industrial production declined -0.4% in December, while capacity utilization in the nation’s factories fell 0.5% to 76.5%.

Business inventories fell -0.2% in November, but a -0.2% drop in sales left the stock-to-sales ratio at 1.38.

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment index rose 0.7 points to 93.3.

Now that we’ve gotten a look at December sales and industrial production, GDP growth for the 4th quarter isn’t looking great.


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Economic Statistics for 14 Jan 16

Import/export prices continued to sink in December, with prices for exports down -1.1% and imports down -1.2%. On a year-over-year basis, import prices have fallen -8.2% and export prices are down -6.5%.

Initial weekly jobless claims rose 7,000 to 284,000. The 4-week average rose 3,000 to 278,750. Continuing claims rose 29,000 to 2.263 million.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose 0.2 points to 44.4 in the latest week.

The Fed’s balance sheet rose $15.1 billion last week, with total assets of $4.502 trillion. Reserve bank credit rose $3.7 billion.

The Fed reports that M2 money supply fell by $-16.7 billion in the latest week.


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Economic Statistics for 13 Jan 15

The MBA reports that mortgage applications rose 21.3% last week, with purchases up 18% and refis up 24%.

The Atlanta Fed reports that Business Inflation Expectations fell to 1.8% for January.

The Fed’s Beige Book reports that consumer spending growth is only slight to moderate, while price pressures are minimal.

The US government budget deficit for December was $-14.4 billion. For the FY to date, the deficit is up 22% at $-215.6 billion.


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Economic Statistics for 12 Jan 16

The Fed’s Labor Market Conditions Index rose from 0.5 to 2.9 In December.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 0.4 points in December to 95.2.

The Labor Department’s JOLTS report indicates that online job openings were  5.431 million vs a revised 5.349 million in October. 

Redbook reports that last week’s retail sales fell to a sluggish 1.7% on a year-ago basis, from the previous week’s 2.9%.


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Economic Statistics for 8 Jan 15

The Labor Department reports that 292,000 net new jobs were created in December, while the unemployment rate held steady at 5.0%. 277,000 people re-entered the labor force, sending the labor force participation rate up 0.1% to 62.6%. Average hourly earnings were unchanged, as was the average workweek, at 34.5 hours.

Wholesale inventories fell a sharp -0.3% in November, but an even steeper -1.0% drop in sales sent the stock-to-sales ratio up to 1.32, compared to 1.23 a year ago.

Consumer credit rose by $14.0 billion in November, helped by a $5.7 billion increase in revolving credit.


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