Chain stores reporting sales today are generally showing mostly higher rates of year-on-year sales growth in December.
Challenger’s count of layoff announcements for December totals 32,640 vs 35,940 in November and 30,623 in December 2013.
Gallup’s US Payroll to Population rate for December was 44.3%, virtually unchanged from November’s 44.2%.
Initial weekly jobless claims fell 4,000 to 294,000. The 4-week average fell 250 to 290,500. Continuing claims rose 101,000 to 2.452 million.
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose 0.9 points to 43.6 in the latest week, the highest level in seven years.
Consumer credit rose $14.1 billion in November, but revolving credit fell $-0.9 billion, the second contraction in the last four months.
The Fed’s balance sheet rose $1.9 billion last week, with total assets of $4.5 trillion. Reserve bank credit fell $-0.6 billion.
The Fed reports that M2 money supply rose by $12 billion in the latest week.
The US Trade deficit narrowed to $-39.0 billion in November from October’s $-43.4 billion, largely on falling oil prices.
The minutes of the December 16–17 meeting indicate moderate economic growth, with restrained inflation and still-weak job market. Discussions about the timing of coming interest rate hikes, with indications that interest rate increases could come even with inflation below 2%, indicate rate increases are possible this year.
ADP estimates that private payrolls grew by 241,000 in December, versus November’s 208,000, but recent ADP figures have overstated those in the government’s official Employment Situation report.
Gallup’s Job Creation Index fell -1 point to 27 in December, in contrast to ADP.
The MBA reports that mortgage applications fell -9.1% last week, with purchases down -5.0% and refis down -12.0%.
Factory orders fell for the 4th straight month in November, down -0.7%, with nearly all major categories declining.
Gallup’s U.S. Economic Confidence Index rose 3 points to -5 in December.
Redbook reports retail sales rose 4.3% on a year-ago basis, slowing from last week’s 5.4%.
The Markit PMI services index fell -2.9 points in December to 53.3.
The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index fell -3.1 points to 56.2 in December.
The JP Morgan Global Composite PMI fell -0.9 points to 52.3 in December.
The JP Morgan Global Services PMI fell -1.2 points to 52.3 in December.
Markit’s PMI Manufacturing Index slowed by -0.9 points in December, coming in at 53.9.
The ISM Manufacturing Index fell -3.2 points to 55.5 in December.
The J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI fell -0.2 points to 51.6 in December.
Construction spending fell -0.3% in November, well below expectations. On a year-over-year basis, spending is up only 2.4%. The recent slack in housing has negative implications for 4th Quarter GDP.
The Fed’s balance sheet fell $-11.8 billion last week, with total assets of 4.498 trillion. Reserve bank credit fell $-11.9 billion.
The Fed reports that M2 money supply grew by $16.6 billion in the latest week.
Initial weekly jobless claims rose 17,000 to 298,000. The 4-week average rose 500 to 290,750. Continuing claims fell 53,000 to 2.353 million.
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell -0.4 points to 42.7 in the latest week.
The NAR’s Pending Home Sales index rose 0.8 points in November, to 104.8.
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index fell -2.5 points to 58.3 in December.
ICSC-Goldman reports weekly retail sales at chain stores were flat, and rose only a soft 2.2% on a year-over-year basis. Redbook reports retail sales were little changed from last week, rising 5.4% on a year-ago basis, compared to 5.3% last week.
The S&P/Case-Shiller home price index rose 0.8% in October, but the still-weak 4.5% increase from last year is down -0.3% from September.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index rose 1.6 points to 92.6, which is near recovery highs.
The State Street Investor Confidence Index remains strong but did ease in December, to 112.1 vs a revised 113.7 in November.
The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey fell -6.4 points to 4.1 in December.
The Fed’s balance sheet rose $7.2 billion last week, with total assets of $4.509 trillion. Reserve bank credit rose $7.7 billion.
The Fed reports that M2 money supply rose by $18.8 billion in the latest week.
The MBA reports that mortgage applications rose 0.9% last week, with purchases and refis both up 1.0%.
Initial weekly jobless claims fell 9,000 to 280,000. The 4-week average fell 8,500 to 290,250. Continuing claims rose 25,000 to 2.403 million.
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose 1.4 points to 43.1 in the latest week, the highest reading since October, 2007.
ICSC-Goldman reports strong weekly retail sales, rising 3.4% for the week, and 3.1% on a year-over-year basis. Redbook reports same-store weekly retail sales surged 5.3% on a year-ago basis.
Durable goods orders for November dropped -0.7%, far below expectations, while ex-transportation orders fell -0.4%. On a year-over year basis, durables orders are up only 0.3%, though ex-transportation orders are up 3.9%.
GDP for the 3rd Quarter of 2014 was revised sharply higher in this final revision, to a 5.0% annualized rate, significantly higher than expected. The GDP price deflator, an inflation measure, was unchanged at 1.4%, annualized.
Corporate after-tax profits in the 3rd Quarter of 2014 were $1.895 trillion, following $1.842 trillion for the 2nd Quarter.
The FHFA House Price Index rose 0.6% in October, and is up 4.5% from a year ago.
The Reuter’s/University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index was little changed for December, falling just -0.2 points to 93.6.
Personal income rose 0.4% in November, while personal spending rose 0.6%. On a year over year basis, income is up 4.2% while spending is up 4.0%. The PCE price index fell -0.2%, and the core rate, which excludes food and energy, was unchanged. On a year-over-year basis, the PCE price index is up 1.2% overall, and 1.4% at the core level.
November new home sales fell -1.6% to a lower-than-expected 438,000 annual rate. Also, price data show weakness with the median price falling -3.2% to $280,000.
The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index rose 3 points to 7 in December.