Free Markets, Free People

Economy

Economic Statistics for 15 Jun 16

The Federal Open Markets Committee’s newest economic projections show a maximum GDP growth rate of 2.2% until after 2018.

May Producer Prices for Final Demand rose 0.4%, while prices less food and energy rose 0.3%. Less trade services, however, prices fell -0.1%. On a year-over year basis, PPI-FD were down -0.1%, up 1.2% less food and energy, and up 0.8% less trade services.

Industrial production fell -0.4% in May, while capacity utilization in the nation’s factories fell -0.5% to 74.9%.

Foreign demand for long-term U.S. securities in April fell by $-79.6 billion, fully reversing March’s $78.1 billion inflow.

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey rose into positive territory again, rising from -9.02 to 6.01 in June.

The MBA reports that mortgage applications fell -2.4% last week, with purchases down -5.0% and refis down -1.0%.


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Economic Statistics for 14 Jun 16

Retail sales rose a surprising 0.5% in May, with sales less autos up 0.4%, and sales less autos and gas up 0.3%.

Import prices rose a huge 1.4% in May, while export prices rose 1.1%. On a year-over-year basis, however, prices are down -5.0% for imports and -4.5% for exports.

Business inventories rose 0.1% in April, but a 0.9% increase in sales lowered the stock-to-sales ratio from 1.41 to 1.40.

The NFIB’s Small Business Optimism index rose 0.2 points to 93.8 in May.

Redbook reports that last week’s retail sales growth rose to a sluggish 0.7% on a year-ago basis, from the previous week’s 0.6%.


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Economic Statistics for 10 Jun 16

The US Budget deficit for may was $52.5 billion. The fiscal year to date deficit, at $407.1 billion is 11.0% higher than last year. May’s deficit is actually understated, as calendar issues pushed about $30 billion of payments into June.

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index fell -0.4 points in June to 94.3 for the preliminary estimate.


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Economic Statistics for 09 Jun 16

Wholesale inventories rose a sharp 0.6% in April, but a 1.0% rise in wholesale sales reduced the stock-to-sales ratio to 1.35.

Initial weekly jobless claims fell 4,000 to 264,000. The 4-week average fell 7,500 to 269,500. Continuing claims fell 77,000 to 2.095 million.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index was unchanged at 43.2 in the latest week.

The Fed’s balance sheet rose $2.2 billion last week, with total assets of $4.464 trillion. Reserve bank credit rose $1.1 billion.

The Fed reports that M2 money supply fell by $-11.0 billion in the latest week.


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Economic Statistics for 8 Jun 16

The Labor Department’s JOLTS report says that April job openings rose to 5.788 million from a downward revised 5.670 million in March.

The Census Bureau reports that Information Revenue rose 1.3% in the 1st Quarter, and is up 5.7% on a year-over-year basis.

The MBA reports that mortgage applications rose 9.3% last week, with purchases up 12.0% and refis up 7.0%.


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Economic Statistics for 7 Jun 16

Non-farm productivity fell at an annualized rate of -0.6% while unit labor costs rose 4.5%. This is a key weakness in the economy. It looks better on a year-over-year basis, but not much, with productivity up 0.7% and unit labor costs up 3.0%.

The Fed’s Labor Market Conditions index fell from -0.9 in April to -4.8 in May, the 5th straight negative, and the lowest since 2009.

Gallup’s US Spending Measure indicates that Americans’ self-reported daily spending fell from $95 to $93.

The Gallup Economic Confidence Index was unchanged at -14 in May.

Redbook reports that last week’s retail sales growth fell to 0.6% on a year-ago basis, from the previous week’s 0.9%.


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Economic Statistics for 3 Jun 16

May’s Employment Situation is very disappointing, with only 38,000 net new jobs created. Labor force participation dropped -0.2% to 62.6% as 458,000 workers left the labor force. Overall, the number of people not in the labor force grew by 664,000. These negatives are hidden, of course, by the clearly meaningless “unemployment” rate which plunged by -0.3% to 4.7%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.2%, but the average workweek fell -0.1 hours to 34.4 hours. Still, congratulations to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, who’ve managed to create a method of calculating the unemployment rate that is completely unmoored from any actual labor market condition.

The nation’s trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed to $-37.4 billion in April.

Factory orders rose 1.9% in April, due to civilian aircraft orders. Core capital goods orders actually fell a disappointing-0.6%.

The PMI Services Index fell -1.5 points to 51.3 in May, while the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index dropped -2.8 points to 52.9.


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Economic Statistics for 2 Jun 16

Chain stores that reported sales today reported just slightly less strength in year-on-year sales than in April.

The Challenger Job-Cut Report shows that Layoff announcements during May were a relatively low 30,157 vs. April’s 64,141. 

ADP’s May Employment Report came in in at 173,000 net new jobs, compared to a revised 166,000 for April. 

May’s Gallup Good Jobs rate was 45.5%, up slightly from April’s 44.9% and the highest May rate since Gallup began measuring it in 2010.

Initial weekly jobless claims fell 1,000 to 267,000. The 4-week average fell 1,750 to 276,750. Continuing claims rose 12,000 to 2.172 million.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose 1.2 points to 43.2 in the latest week.

The Fed’s balance sheet rose $0.3 billion last week, with total assets of $4.461 trillion. Reserve bank credit fell $-9.4 billion.

The Fed reports that M2 money supply rose by $21.0 billion in the latest week.


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Economic Statistics for 1 Jun 16

May motor vehicle sales kept pace with April, at a 17.5 million annual rate, with North American vehicles selling at a 13.8 million pace.

The Fed’s Beige Book seems to indicate the economy is slowing, characterizing the nation’s economic growth as generally “modest”.

Construction spending fell -1.8% in April, with the year-on-year rate falling to 4.5%, the lowest since June, 2013.

The PMI Manufacturing Index for May fell -0.1 points to 50.7, but the ISM Manufacturing index rose 0.4 points to 51.3.

Gallup’s U.S. Job Creation Index rose 3 points to 33 in May.

Redbook reports that last week’s retail sales growth rose to an anemic 0.9% on a year-ago basis, from the previous week’s even weaker 0.4%.

The MBA reports that mortgage applications fell -4.1% last week, with purchases down -5.0% and refis down -4.0%.


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Economic Statistics for 31 May 16

In April, Personal income rose 0.4%, Consumer spending rose 1.0%, and the PCE Price index rose 0.3%. The Core PCE Price index rose 0.2%.

The S&P/Case-Shiller home price index for March rose 0.9%, and is up 5.4% on a yer-over-year basis.

The Chicago purchasing Manager’s Index slipped into a contractionary reading of 49.3 in May, from April’s 50.7.

The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell -2.1 points to a lower-than-expected 92.6 in May.

The State Street Investor Confidence Index fell -2.0 points to 106.6 in May.

The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey turned strongly negative, falling from 5.8 to -13.1 in May.


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