Free Markets, Free People

Economy

Economic Statistics for 18 Nov 14

ICSC-Goldman reports weekly retail sales rose 0.2%, and rose 2.2% on a year-over-year basis. Redbook reports retail sales rose 3.9% on a year-ago basis.

Final demand producer prices rose 0.2% overall in October, while prices less food and energy rose 0.4%. On a year-over-year basis, the PPI-FD is up 1.5% at the headline level, and up 1.7% at the core. In October, goods prices declined -0.4% while services prices rose 0.5%. On a year-over-year basis, both goods and services prices have risen 1.6%.

The NAHB Housing Market Index rose 3 points in November to 58.0.

E-commerce retail sales for the 3rd Quarter of 2014 rose 4.0%, compared to 4.9% in the previous quarter.

Very heavy foreign buying resulted in a net inflow of $164.3 billion in long term US securities in September.


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Economic Statistics for 14 Nov 14

October retail sales were up 0.3% overall. Sales less autos were up 0.3% as well, while sales less autos and gas rose 0.6%.

Export prices fell -1.0% on October, while import prices fell -1.3%. On a year-over-year basis, export prices have fallen -0.8%, while import prices have fallen -1.8%. Cross-border prices are clearly deflationary, and are beginning to feed into the price of finished goods. With interest rates already at 0%, it’s difficult to see what monetary policy measures are available to counteract this trend. 

The Reuter’s/University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index is up 2.5 points t0 39.4 for November’s preliminary reading. This is the highest level for the index since 2007.

Business inventories rose 0.3% in September, while flat sales left the stock-to-sales ratio at 1.30.


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Economic Statistics for 13 Nov 14

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose 0.1 points to 38.2 in the latest week.

Initial weekly jobless claims rose 12,000 to 290,000. The 4-week average rose 6,000 to 285,000. Continuing claims rose 36,000 to 2.373 million.

The Labor Department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed 4.7 million job openings on the last business day of September.

The U.S. Treasury monthly budget report for October shows the new fiscal year starting with a deficit of $-127.1 billion.

The Fed’s balance sheet rose $2.3 billion last week, with total assets of 4.489 trillion. Reserve bank credit rose $2.448 billion.

The Fed reports that M2 money supply fell by $-65.7 billion in the latest week.


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Economic Statistics for 12 Nov 14

The MBA reports that mortgage applications fell -0.9% last week, with purchases up 1.0% but refis down -11%.

The Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations nudged up 0.1% in October, with businesses expecting 2.0% inflation over the next year.

Wholesale inventories rose 0.3% in September, while a 0.2% rise in wholesale sales left the stock-to-sales ratio at 1.19.


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Economic Statistics for 7 Nov 14

Consumer credit rose by $15.9 billion in September, $14.5 billion of which was non-revolving credit. Not that anybody cares. What people care about is…

The Employment Situation for October was mixed. A net new 214,000 jobs were created, and the unemployment rate fell -0.1% to 5.8%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.1%, while the average work week was unchanged at 34.6 hours. Overall, the number of people employed rose by 683,000, while the number of people in the labor force increased by 206,00, bringing the labor force participation rate up 0.1% to 62.8%. Using the historical average labor force participation rate, the real rate of unemployment fell by -0.3% to 10.53%.


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Economic Statistics for 6 Nov 14

Chain stores reporting sales for October are citing unseasonably warm weather for sizable slowing in sales growth. This points to a disappointing government retail sales report for last month.

Challenger’s layoff count, at 51,183 in October is up sharply this month, but from a 14-year low in September of 30,477. 

Gallup’s US Payroll to Population employment rate for October was 44.4%, down from 44.8% in September.

Nonfarm productivity growth for the 3rd Quarter rose an annualized 2.0%, while unit labor costs rose 0.3%.

Initial weekly jobless claims fell 10,000 to 278,000. The 4-week average fell 2,000 to 279,000. Continuing claims fell 39,000 to 2.348 million.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose 0.9 points to 38.1 in the latest week, the second-highest reading since 2007.

The Fed’s balance sheet fell $-0.2 billion last week, with total assets of $4.487 trillion. Reserve bank credit fell $-5.8 billion.

The Fed reports that M2 money supply rose by $33.6 billion in the latest week.


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Economic Statistics for 5 Nov 14

I’m taking a break from my post-election schadenfreude to bring you the same old, boring economic stats. Bruce has already covered the election aftermath well, and I can’t think of much to add, except to note that the President, in his presser this afternoon, assures us that there’s no reason to try and read the tea leaves of this election. It’s true meaning is essentially unknowable. Clearly, there was a lot of anti-incumbent sentiment, but there’s no way for us to really glean any larger implications for the president’s policies from all this. What’s really important now is to learn how the Republicans will reach across the aisle to get things done in a bipartisan fashion.

Anyway, today’s stats:

The MBA reports that mortgage applications fell -2.6% last week, with purchases down -3.0% and refis down -6.0%.

ADP’s estimate for private payroll growth for October is 230,000, which was generally in line with expectations.

Gallup’s U.S. Job Creation Index fell -3 points to 27 for October, down from the six-year high of 30 in September.

The ISM’s Non-Manufacturing index fell -1.5 points to 57.1 in October.

The JP Morgan Global Composite PMI slowed for the third straight month, down -1.3 points to a still-positive 53.6. The Global Services PMI fell -1.6 points to 53.7.

On a side note, I don’t think that both the ADP Employment report, which shows an increase of 17,000 private payroll jobs over last month, and the Gallup Job Creation Index can both be right. We’ll know which one was correct on Friday, with the release of the October Employment Situation.


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Economic Statistics for 4 Nov 14

ICSC-Goldman reports weekly retail sales fell -1.6%, and rose only 1.8% on a year-over-year basis. Redbook reports retail sales rose 3.9% on a year-ago basis, compared with 4.4% in the prior week.

Gallup’s October Economic Confidence Index jumped to a monthly reading of -12 in October–the most positive score since the -12 of July 2013.

The US trade deficit grew by $2.9 billion in September, growing to $43 billion.

September factory orders were better than the previous month’s but still fell by another -0.6%, following August’s -10.1% decline.


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Economic Statistics for 3 Nov 14

Motor vehicle sales came in at a 13 million annual pace, while overall sales are expect to hit a 16.7 million rate. 

Gallip’s daily self-reported spending measure averaged $89 in October, versus $87 in September.

The Markit PMI manufacturing index in October fell -1.6 points to 55.9.

Construction spending unexpectedly declined -0.4% in September, and is up only 2.9% from a year ago.

The J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI was unchanged at 52.2 in October.


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