Free Markets, Free People

Economy

Economic Statistics for 14 Jan 15

The MBA reports that falling rates led to an explosion of mortgage applications, up 49.1% last week, with purchases up 24.0% and refis 66.0%.

Retail sales fell a disappointing -0.9% in December. Sales less autos fell -1.0%, while sales less autos and gas fell -0.3%.

Declining oil prices sent export prices down -1.2% in December, while import prices plunged -3.2%. On a year-over-year basis, Export prices are down -2.5% while import prices are down -5.5%.

The Atlanta Fed’s Business Inflation Expectations survey shows inflation expectations of 1.7% in January, down from December’s 1.9%.

Business inventories rose 0.2% in November, while a -0.2% drop in sales left the stock-to-sales ratio at a moderate 1.31.

The Fed’s latest Beige Book says that economic activity continues to expand at a “modest” or “moderate” rate.


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Economic Statistics for 13 Jan 15

Redbook reports that retail sales continue to slow, rising 3.8% on a year-ago basis, from last week’s 4.3%.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose from 98.1 to 100.4 in December, the highest level since October 2006.

The Labor Department’s JOLTS report shows 4.972 million job openings on the last business day of November.

The U.S. Treasury monthly budget report for December shows a $1.9 billion surplus for the month, as receipts rose 11%.


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Economic Statistics for 9 Jan 15

The economy added 252,000 net new jobs in December, while the unemployment rate dipped to 5.6%. Average hourly earnings fell -0.2% while the average workweek was unchanged at 34.6 hours. The fall in the unemployment rate can mainly be attributed to the fact that 273,000 people left the labor force, brining the labor force participation rate down to 62.7%. That’s the second time in the last four months the participation rate has been that low, a level not previously seen since February, 1978.

Wholesale inventories rose 0.8% in November, while a -0.3% decline in sales pushed the stock-to-sales ratio up to a porky 1.21.


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Economic Statistics for 8 Jan 15

Chain stores reporting sales today are generally showing mostly higher rates of year-on-year sales growth in December.

Challenger’s count of layoff announcements for December totals 32,640 vs 35,940 in November and 30,623 in December 2013.

Gallup’s US Payroll to Population rate for December was 44.3%, virtually unchanged from November’s 44.2%.

Initial weekly jobless claims fell 4,000 to 294,000. The 4-week average fell 250 to 290,500. Continuing claims rose 101,000 to 2.452 million.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose 0.9 points to 43.6 in the latest week, the highest level in seven years.

Consumer credit rose $14.1 billion in November, but revolving credit fell $-0.9 billion, the second contraction in the last four months.

The Fed’s balance sheet rose $1.9 billion last week, with total assets of $4.5 trillion. Reserve bank credit fell $-0.6 billion.

The Fed reports that M2 money supply rose by $12 billion in the latest week.


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Economic Statistics for 7 Jan 15

The US Trade deficit narrowed to $-39.0 billion in November from October’s $-43.4 billion, largely on falling oil prices.

The minutes of the December 16–17 meeting indicate moderate economic growth, with restrained inflation and still-weak job market. Discussions about the timing of coming interest rate hikes, with indications that interest rate increases could come even with inflation below 2%, indicate rate increases are possible this year.

ADP estimates that private payrolls grew by 241,000 in December, versus November’s 208,000, but recent ADP figures have overstated those in the government’s official Employment Situation report.

Gallup’s Job Creation Index fell -1 point to 27 in December, in contrast to ADP.

The MBA reports that mortgage applications fell -9.1% last week, with purchases down -5.0% and refis down -12.0%.


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Economic Statistics for 6 Jan 15

Factory orders fell for the 4th straight month in November, down -0.7%, with nearly all major categories declining.

Gallup’s U.S. Economic Confidence Index rose 3 points to -5 in December.

Redbook reports retail sales rose 4.3% on a year-ago basis, slowing from last week’s 5.4%.

The Markit PMI services index fell -2.9 points in December to 53.3.

The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index fell -3.1 points to 56.2 in December.

The JP Morgan Global Composite PMI fell -0.9 points to 52.3 in December.

The JP Morgan Global Services PMI fell -1.2 points to 52.3 in December.


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Economic Statistics for 2 Jan 15

Markit’s PMI Manufacturing Index slowed by -0.9 points in December, coming in at 53.9.

The ISM Manufacturing Index fell -3.2 points to 55.5 in December.

The J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI fell -0.2 points to 51.6 in December.

Construction spending fell -0.3% in November, well below expectations. On a year-over-year basis, spending is up only 2.4%. The recent slack in housing has negative implications for 4th Quarter GDP.

The Fed’s balance sheet fell $-11.8 billion last week, with total assets of 4.498 trillion. Reserve bank credit fell $-11.9 billion.

The Fed reports that M2 money supply grew by $16.6 billion in the latest week.


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Economic Statistics for 31 Dec 14

Initial weekly jobless claims rose 17,000 to 298,000. The 4-week average rose 500 to 290,750. Continuing claims fell 53,000 to 2.353  million.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell -0.4 points to 42.7 in the latest week.

The NAR’s Pending Home Sales index rose 0.8 points in November, to 104.8.

The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index  fell -2.5 points to 58.3 in December.


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