Free Markets, Free People

Economy

Economic Statistics for 3 Mar 15

Motor vehicle sales fell for the 3rd straight month in January, down -2.6 to a 16.2 million annual rate. Foreign vehicle sales fell -8.8% to a 3.1 million rate, while sales of vehicles made in North America fell 0.7% to a 13.5 million rate.

The Gallup Economic Confidence Index fell -2 points to 1 in February.

Redbook reports that last week’s retail sales fell -0.1% to 2.7% on a year-ago basis, from the previous week’s 2.8%.


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Economic Statistics for 2 Mar 15

Personal income rose 0.3% in January, while consumer spending fell -0.2%. The PCE Price index, an inflation measure, fell -0.5%, though the core index, i.e., ex-food and -energy, rose 0.1%. On a year-over-year basis, income rose 4.6%, while spending rose 3.6%. ON the same basis, the PCE Price index is up 0.2% at the headline level, and 1.3% at the core.

Gallup’s self-reported Daily Consumer Spending measure was little changed in February, at $82, versus $81 in January.

The Markit PMI manufacturing index for February rose 1.2 points from the final January reading, coming in at 55.1. 

The ISM Manufacturing Index weakened by -0.6 points to 52.9 in February.

January construction spending was worse than expected, with a -1.1% decline. On a year-ago basis, spending is up only 1.8%.


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Economic Statistics for 27 Feb 15

The first revision to 4Q 2015 GDP was dropped to a 2.2% annualized rate, from the originally reported 2.6%. On the plus side, though, much of the decrease was in inventory investment revisions, while the final sales of domestic product component was revised up to 3.2% from 2.8%.

The Chicago PMI pounded into below-50 negative territory in February, falling from 59.4 to 45.8. Monday, we’ll see if the Chicago PMI presages a national decline in the PMI.

The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index rose 1.8 points in February, to 95.4.

The National Association of Realtors’ pending home sales index rose 1.7% in January to a moderately strong 104.2.


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Economic Statistics for 25 Feb 15

The MBA reports that mortgage applications fell -3.5% last week, with purchases up 5.0%, but refis down -8.0%.

New home sales were little changed in January, at a better-than-expected 481,000 annual rate, nearly unchanged from December’s big jump of 8.1% to 482,000. Price concessions may have helped sales, as the median sales price fell 2.6% to $294,000. 


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Economic Statistics for 24 Feb 15

Redbook reports that last week’s retail sales slowed to 2.8% on a year-ago basis, from the previous week’s 3.2%.

The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index rose 0.9% in December, with prices up 4.5%, year-over-year.

A strong rebound in new work helped boost to Markit’s PMI Services Flash for February 3 points to a 4-month high of 57.0. 

The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell -7.4 points to 96.4 in February.

The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index shows no change in manufacturing activity in the Mid-Atlantic District, with the index at 0 for February.

The State Street Investor Confidence Index fell -1.5 points in January to 105.2, with weakness centered in Europe as uncertainty about Greece continues.


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Economic Statistics for 23 Feb 15

The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey stayed in negative territory in February, falling for the second straight month, down -6.8 points to -11.2.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index was positive in January, coming in at 0.13, vice -0.05 in December.

Sales of existing homes in January fell a sharp -4.9% to an annual rate of 4.82 million. That’s the lowest rate since April, 2014. 


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Economic Statistics for 19 Feb 15

Initial weekly jobless claims fell 21,000 to 283,000. The 4-week average fell 6,500 to 283,250. Continuing claims rose 58,000 to 2.425 million.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose 0.3 points to 44.6 in the latest week.

The general business conditions index of the Philadelphia Fed’s Business Outlook Survey fell 1.1 points to 5.2 in February.

The Conference Board’s index of leading indicators rose 0.2% in January.

The Fed’s balance sheet fell $-4.8 billion last week, with total assets of $4.497 trillion. Reserve bank credit rose $11.5 billion.

The Fed reports that M2 money supply fell by $-9.8 billion in the latest week.


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Economic Statistics for 18 Feb 15

Net foreign demand for long-term US securities rose $35.4 billion in December, mainly on US selling of foreign securities. Foreign accounts were actually net sellers in the month.

The MBA reports that mortgage applications fell for the 5th straight week, down -13.2%, with purchases down 7.0% and refis down 16%.

Housing starts fell -2.0%in January, to a 1.065 million annual rate, though that is an 18.7% increase over a year ago.

The Producer Price Index for Final Demand fell -0.8% in January, while prices less food and energy fell -0.1%. Prices less food, energy & trade services fell -0.3%. Overall, prices for Goods fell -2.1% while Services prices fell -0.2%. Prices on a year-over-year basis:

PPI-FD: -0.1%
PPI-FD less food & energy: 1.5%
PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services: 0.9%
PPI-FD Goods: -3.9%
PPI-FD Services: 1.9%

Redbook reports retail sales rose 3.2% on a year-ago basis, up from last week’s 2.1%.

The Fed reports that Industrial production rose 0.2% in January, while capacity utilization in the nation’s factories fell -0.3% to 79.4%. Manufacturing output rose 0.2%.


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Economic Statistics for 17 Feb 15

The Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey fell to 7.78 in February from January’s 9.95.

The NAHB housing market index fell -2 points in February to 55.

E-Commerce sales from the 4th Quarter of 2014 fell to 2.3%, down from 3.6% in the 3rd Quarter. Year-on-year, sales are up 14.6%, while e-commerce sales to 0.1% to account for 6.7% of all retail sales.


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