Free Markets, Free People

Economy

Economic Statistics for 18 Nov 15

Today’s release of the minutes of the October FOMC meeting hint strongly that an interest rate hike may be in the cards for December.

The Atlanta Fed reports that annual inflation expectations for business were unchanged for November at 1.8%.

Housing starts fell sharply in October, down -11.0% to a 1.060 million annual rate.

The MBA reports that mortgage applications rose 6.2% last week, with purchases up 12.0% and refis up 2.0%.


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Economic Statistics for 17 Nov 15

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey improved a bit, but still stayed deeply negative at -10.74 in November.

The Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% at both the headline and core rate in October. On a year-over-year basis, the CPI is up 0.2% overall, but 1.9% less food and energy.

The Fed reports industrial production fell -0.2% in October, while capacity utilization in the nation’s factories was unchanged at 77.5%. The production drop is misleading, since it includes big drops in mining and utilities. Manufacturing actually rose 0.4%.

The NAHB’s Housing Market index declined -2 points to 62 in November, signaling some weakness in home construction.

Growth in e-commerce sales remained strong in the 3rd quarter of 2015, up 4.2%.

Net foreign demand for US long-term securities rose to $33.6 billion in September vs a revised $20.8 billion in August.

Redbook reports that last week’s retail sales rose very slightly to a weak 1.2% on a year-ago basis, from the previous week’s 1.1%.


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Economic Statistics for 12 Nov 15

The Labor Department’s JOLTS survey rose to 5.526 million job openings in September from a revised 5.377 million in August.

The Treasury reports that October’s budget deficit was $-136.5 billion, 12.2% higher than last October. Total spending was up 3.9% on the year.

Initial weekly jobless claims were unchanged at 276,000. The 4-week average rose 5,000 to 267,750. Continuing claims rose 5,000 to 2.174 million.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose 0.5 points to 41.6 in the latest week.

The Fed’s balance sheet rose  $2.3 billion last week, with total assets of $4.492 trillion. Reserve bank credit rose $1.5 billion.

The Fed reports that M2 money supply rose by $28.4 billion in the latest week.


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Economic Statistics for 10 Nov 15

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index was unchanged at 96.1 in October.

Import prices fell -0.5% in October, while export prices fell -0.2%. Year-over year, prices are down -10.5% for imports, and -6.7% for exports.

Redbook reports that last week’s retail sales fell to 1.1% on a year-ago basis, from the previous week’s 1.9%, as sales weakness continues.

Wholesale inventories rose 0.5% in September, while a 0.5% increase in sales kept the stock-to-sales ratio unchanged at 1.31.


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Economic Statistics for 6 Nov 15

The BLS reports that a higher-than-expected 271,000 net new jobs were created in October, the largest increase since December, 2014. The unemployment rate fell -0.1% to 5.0%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% to $25.20, while the average workweek was unchanged at 34.5 hours. The labor force participation rate was also unchanged at 62.4%. 313,000 people entered or re-entered the labor force, while the number of people reporting themselves employed rose 320,000. The number of people not in the labor force declined by -97,000. The U-6 unemployment rate, the broadest definition of unemployment published by the government, fell -0.2% to 9.8%.

Consumer credit surged $28.9 billion in September, the largest increase in the history of this data release. Revolving credit also rose $6.7 billion.


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Economic Statistics for 5 Nov 15

Chain stores are reporting weaker rates of year-on-year sales in October, as warm weather held down sales of seasonals. 

Challenger reports that layoff announcements fell in October to 50,504 vs September’s 58,877.

Non-farm productivity rose only 1.6% in the 3rd Quarter, while unit labor costs rose 1.4%.

The Gallup Good Jobs rate (GGJ) was 45.3 percent in October, about the same as the last two months.

Initial weekly jobless claims rose 16,000 to 276,000. The 4-week average rose 2,500 to 262,750. Continuing claims rose 17,000 to 2.163 million.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell -1.7 points to 41.1 in the latest week.

The Fed’s balance sheet rose $0.4 billion last week, with total assets of $4.490 trillion. Reserve bank credit fell $-6.6 billion.

The Fed reports that M2 money supply rose by $15.4 billion in the latest week.


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Economic Statistics for 4 Nov 15

The MBA reports that mortgage applications fell -0.8% last week, with purchases and refis both down -1.0%.

The ADP Employment Report is calling for 182,000 new net private sector jobs in October. We’ll see, in Friday’s Employment Situation.

September’s international trade deficit came in at $-40.8 billion, compared to $-48.3 billion the prior month.

For the sixth month in a row, Gallup’s U.S. Job Creation Index held steady at 32 in October.

Markit’s PMI Services Index fell -0.3 points to 54.8 in October.

ISM’s non-manufacturing index jumped 2.2 points to a very strong 59.1 in October.


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Economic Statistics for 3 Nov 15

For the 11th time in 14 months, factory orders fell in September, down -1.0%, as the strong dollar continues to cripple exports.

Motor Vehicle sales surged to an 18.2 million annual rate in October, the highest rate in 12 years.

Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index averaged -13 in October, up just 1 point from the previous month.

Redbook reports that last week’s retail sales climbed to 1.9% on a year-ago basis, from the previous week’s 1.5%.


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