Free Markets, Free People

Podcasting

BlogTalk Radio – 8pm (EST) Tonight

Call in number: (718) 664-9614

Yes, friends, it is a call-in show, so do call in.

Subject(s):

Afghanistan – McChrystal out, Petraeus in – now what?

Oil spill – oil washes up on Pensacola beach, Mississippi sees no one skimming oil off shore – who’s in charge on day 69?

Economy – unemployment numbers, housing sales, GDP numbers – we’re in a recovery?

UPDATE [Dale]: Sadly, some weird technical glitch at BlogTalkRadio prevented us from getting a podcast recorded tonight.  We’ll try again next week.

Observations: The Qando Podcast for 20 Jun 10

In this podcast, Bruce and Dale discuss the dissatisfaction about President Obama’s competence, the oil spill, and the American stranded in Egypt.

The direct link to the podcast can be found here.

Observations

The intro and outro music is Vena Cava by 50 Foot Wave, and is available for free download here.

As a reminder, if you are an iTunes user, don’t forget to subscribe to the QandO podcast, Observations, through iTunes. For those of you who don’t have iTunes, you can subscribe at Podcast Alley. And, of course, for you newsreader subscriber types, our podcast RSS Feed is here. For podcasts from 2005 to 2009, they can be accessed through the RSS Archive Feed.

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BlogTalk Radio – 8pm (EST) Tonight

Call in number: (718) 664-9614

Yes, friends, it is a call-in show, so do call in.

Subject(s):

Oil spill – it continues and the politics heat up.

Is Obama incompetent and an amateur – Mort Zuckerman and a growing number of world leaders may think so.

No-fly list limbo – how does an American end up not being able to get back to the US and is it Constitutional?

Observations: The Qando Podcast for 13 Jun 10

In this podcast, Bruce, Michael, and Dale discuss whether President Obama’s “Jimmy Carter Moment” is approacjing as a result of the BP Oil spill, and his proposal to eliminate the mortgage interest rate deduction.

The direct link to the podcast can be found here.

Observations

The intro and outro music is Vena Cava by 50 Foot Wave, and is available for free download here.

As a reminder, if you are an iTunes user, don’t forget to subscribe to the QandO podcast, Observations, through iTunes. For those of you who don’t have iTunes, you can subscribe at Podcast Alley. And, of course, for you newsreader subscriber types, our podcast RSS Feed is here. For podcasts from 2005 to 2009, they can be accessed through the RSS Archive Feed.

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BlogTalk Radio – Tonight 8pm (EST)

Call in number: (718) 664-9614

Yes, friends, it is a call-in show, so do call in.

Subject(s):

The oil spill and leadership – this isn’t about the gusher anymore, at least as far as the federal response goes.

Ethics – Congress is ready to throw them over again.

Mortgage deduction – keep it or pitch it?

Observations: The Qando Podcast for 06 Jun 10

In this podcast, Bruce, Michael, and Dale discuss the employment numbers, and Turkey’s seeming intent to provoke a conflict with Israel.

The direct link to the podcast can be found here.

Observations

The intro and outro music is Vena Cava by 50 Foot Wave, and is available for free download here.

As a reminder, if you are an iTunes user, don’t forget to subscribe to the QandO podcast, Observations, through iTunes. For those of you who don’t have iTunes, you can subscribe at Podcast Alley. And, of course, for you newsreader subscriber types, our podcast RSS Feed is here. For podcasts from 2005 to 2009, they can be accessed through the RSS Archive Feed.

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BlogTalk Radio – 8pm (EST) Tonight

Call in number: (718) 664-9614

Yes, friends, it is a call-in show, so do call in.

Subject(s):

Unemployment numbers – They’re not at all as strong as they seem.

Oil spill – Now what? Politics/environment/energy – what effect is it likely to have?

Flotilla fallout – Turkey is keeping it stirred up and now Iran is offering to escort future blockade runners. What should the US do?

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BlogTalk Radio – 8pm (EST) tonight

Call in number: (718) 664-9614

Yes, friends, it is a call-in show, so do call in.

Subject(s):

Oil spill, Top Kill and Obama – when it appeared the top kill had succeeded, out popped Obama to take credit. Now it has failed. What are the ramifications of this spill practically, politically and for this presidency?

The Sestak affair – does any thinking person really believe that a White House serious about offering Sestak a job to keep him from challenging Arlen Spector would offer a unpaid position on an executive branch advisory board? Yeah, me neither. And now we have Clinton in the mix?

Memorial day – what it means and, with two wars going on and with the bodies of those he’s ordered into combat laying in final repose there, should the President be at Arlington tomorrow instead of Chicago?

The economy – what we’re facing right now

Despite all the assurances by politicians that “things are turning around” and that while “we still have a long way to go”, we’ve “survived the disaster”, I’m not at all sure that’s true.  Nor are a number of other people, to include Hale Stewart at FiveThirtyEight.  He does an extensive analysis of why unemployment had “unexpectedly” stalled out after showing signs of recovery.  He accompanies his analysis with a number of charts that demonstrate his point, but in essence his finding supports what we talked about last night on the podcast – the decline of the euro:

So, the central issue is a decreasing euro, which has led to an increasing dollar, which in turn has led to decreasing commodity prices. Recent reserve tightening issues in China have added downward pressure to commodity prices, which adds further evidence to the argument the US is facing an increased possibility of deflation.

That and a decrease leading economic indicators lead him to caution us that  we may see a lack of further economic growth in the next 3 – 6 months unless a few things happen:

1.) A decrease in initial unemployment claims below the 450,000 level. In addition, the economy needs to keep up its current pace of job creation. Last month we had a great employment report. That needs to be repeated in the next report.

2.) The euro needs to stabilize. The European Union has proposed a massive $1 trillion dollar package, which was announced several weeks ago. However, the euro has continued to drop since that announcement. Markets are now concerned that austerity programs will hurt overall economic growth.

3.) Commodity prices need to rebound. An across the board drop in commodity prices indicates the markets think decreased demand is an issue going forward. An increase in commodity prices will indicate demand is picking up.

Keep your eye on number 2, because if the euro doesn’t stabilize the chances of 1 and 3 happening aren’t good.  And that brings us to the second part of the story.  Europe.  It is there our fate lies at the moment.  And it is a fragile thing:

If the trouble starts — and it remains an “if” — the trigger may well be obscure to the concerns of most Americans: a missed budget projection by the Spanish government, the failure of Greece to hit a deficit-reduction target, a drop in Ireland’s economic output.

But the knife-edge psychology currently governing global markets has put the future of the U.S. economic recovery in the hands of politicians in an assortment of European capitals. If one or more fail to make the expected progress on cutting budgets, restructuring economies or boosting growth, it could drain confidence in a broad and unsettling way. Credit markets worldwide could lock up and throw the global economy back into recession.

For the average American, that seemingly distant sequence of events could translate into another hit on the 401(k) plan, a lost factory shift if exports to Europe decline and another shock to the banking system that might make it harder to borrow.

“If what happened in Greece were to happen in a large country, it could fundamentally mark our times,” Angelos Pangratis, head of the European Union delegation to the United States, said Friday after a panel discussion on the crisis in Greece sponsored by the Greater Washington Board of Trade.

If you’re in the US that is not something you want to read. We’re talking, of course, of the possibility of a double dip recession with the second recession most likely more devastating than the first.

The writers of the Washington Post piece cited above don’t feel the “worst-case scenario” is a high probability noting that European countries have pledged hundreds of billions of dollars to fix the economic problems. And they repeat the assurance that the US economy “has been strengthening through the year” to include adding jobs and with higher consumer spending and better industrial output.

But, as FiveThirtyEight notes, that’s not at all what the leading economic indicators promise will continue. Manufacturer’s orders and supplier deliveries have dropped. Commodity prices have continued to slide (indicating demand has dropped) and building permits are way down. None of those promise that the economy is strengthening.

The Post goes on to paint Europe’s travail is at least temporary good news for the US. But I don’t see it – certainly not in the numbers Stewart cites. In fact I see it as more whistling past the grave yard. As they mention in their opening paragraphs, this all depends on a number of things going right among a group of European nations at financial risk for not doing what they should have been doing for years. My confidence in the ability of “the experts” to successfully negotiate the financial and economic mine field – given their history – is not at all as great as the Post’s. And, I’d further note, that while everyone is assuring everyone else that they have this crisis in hand, they’re winging it, having never done or had to do anything like this to the scale they’re now involved. The law of unintended consequences is sitting in waiting salivating at the possibilities this crisis presents.

Bottom line – keep your eye on the Euro and hope like hell the Europeans can pull off what they have to do to keep us out of a double-dip recession.

~McQ

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Observations: The QandO Podcast for 23 May 10

In this podcast, Bruce, Michael, and Dale discuss Rand Paul, this week’s elections, and the stock market.

The direct link to the podcast can be found here.

Observations

The intro and outro music is Vena Cava by 50 Foot Wave, and is available for free download here.

As a reminder, if you are an iTunes user, don’t forget to subscribe to the QandO podcast, Observations, through iTunes. For those of you who don’t have iTunes, you can subscribe at Podcast Alley. And, of course, for you newsreader subscriber types, our podcast RSS Feed is here. For podcasts from 2005 to 2009, they can be accessed through the RSS Archive Feed.

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