Modern Science—Shades of the Scholastics Posted by: Dale Franks
on Thursday, November 17, 2005
Debra Saunders writes that the global warming orthodoxy in science is getting increasingly intolerant.
A Tuesday Open Forum piece in The San Francisco Chronicle, written by a UC Berkeley journalism professor and a UC Berkeley energy professor, provides a perfect example of this odd view that all scientists ascribe to a common gospel: "The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a U.N.-sponsored group of more than 2,000 scientists from more than 100 countries, has concluded that human activity is a key factor in elevated carbon-dioxide levels and rising temperatures and sea levels that could prove catastrophic for tens of millions of people living along Earth's coastlines."
The piece also cited research by "Naomi Oreskes, a science historian at UC San Diego, who reviewed 928 abstracts of peer-reviewed articles on climate change published in scientific journals between 1993 and 2003 and could not find a single one that challenged the scientific consensus that human-caused global warming is real."
The authors then attacked best-selling author Michael Crichton because Crichton accepted an invitation to testify from Sen. James Inhofe, R-Okla., "who is heavily supported by oil and gas interests" and who—horrors—dared to ask whether the global-warming scare is a hoax. That is the sort of McCarthyist guilt by association that one would not expect to encounter in the name of science.
This actually comes at an interesting time, because I've just received a review copy of The Politically Incorrect Guide To Science from Regnery—which I will review for The New Libertarian in due course—and have just finished re-reading James Hogan's book on the increasing rigidity in science in general, Kicking the Sacred Cow.
The IPCC and change is a perfect example of the problem that occurs when Big Science intersects with Big Politics. Once all the grant money starts getting funneled only to scientists who espouse the favored theories of the grantors...well, the resulting publications begin showing an odd uniformity of views. And the IPCC is a particularly corrupt example of this process.
The climate change doomsayers are always quick to point out that the IPCC climate change report was signed by more than 2,000 scientists. That's true, as far as it goes, but, there are scientists, and then there are scientists. In the case of the IPCC report, the vast majority of the scientists were, in fact, political representatives of their countries, with degrees in social sciences. While social sciences might be an important field of study, they do not provide the holder of doctorates with any particular expertise about global warming. And, of those representatives who signed the report, only 78 of them were even involved in the 1996 IPCC conference that produced the report. As James Hogan relates in his book:
[T]he world was told there was a virtually unanimous scientific consensus on the existence of a clear and present danger. On July 24, 1997, President Clinton held a press conference at which he announced that the catastrophic effects of man's use of fossil fuels was now an accepted scientific fact, not a theory. To underline this, he produced a list stated as being of 2,500 scientists who had approved the 1996 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report preparing the ground for Kyoto. That sounded conclusive, and most of the world at large accepted it as such.
However, upon further delving, things turn out to be not quite that simple. For a start, by far the majority of the signers were not climate scientists but political representatives from their respective countries, ranging all the way from Albania to Zimbabwe, with degrees in the social sciences. Their listing as "contributors" meant, for example, that they might have been given a part of the report and asked to express an opinion, and even if the opinion was a negative one they were still listed as "reviewers." 162 Only seventy-eight of the attendees were involved in producing the document. Even then, to give it even a hint of supporting the global warming position, the executive summary, written by a small IPCC steering group, was purged of all politically incorrect skepticism and modified—after the scientists had signed it!—which caused an uproar of indignation from the qualified atmospheric specialists who participated.
[Atmospheric scientist] Fred Singer later produced a paper entitled "The Road from Rio to Kyoto: How Climatic Science was Distorted to Support Ideological Objectives," which couldn't have put it much more clearly. 164 The IPCC report stated the twentieth century to have been the warmest in six hundred years of climate history. Although correct, this avoided any mention of the Little Ice Age that the twentieth century was a recovery from, while going back just a little further would have brought in the "medieval optimum," which was warmer than today. Another part of the report told that increases in carbon dioxide in the geological past were "associated with" increases in temperature. This is disingenuous in that it obviously aims at giving the impression that the CO2 increases caused the temperature rises, whereas, as we've seen, the temperature rises came first. If any causation was involved, there are stronger reasons for supposing it to have been in the opposite direction.
These are just two of twelve distortions that Singer's paper discusses, but they give the general flavor. Two phrases edited out of the IPCC report were, "None of the studies cited above has shown clear evidence that we can attribute the observed [climate] changes to the specific cause of increases in greenhouse gases" and "When will an anthropogenic effect on climate be identified? . . . [T]he best answer is, 'we do not know.' "
Frederick Seitz, former head of the National Academy of Sciences and Chairman of the George C. Marshall Institute, wrote (Wall Street Journal, June 12, 1996), "But this report is not what it appears to be—it is not the version that was approved by the contributing scientists listed on the title page. . . . I have never witnessed a more disturbing corruption of the peer-review process than the events that led to this IPCC report." Yet a year later it was being cited as proof of a consensus by the scientific community.
So how did atmospheric physicists, climatic specialists, and others with scientific credentials feel about the issue? To find out, Dr. Arthur Robinson, president and research professor of the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine, also publisher of the newsletter Access to Energy, in February 1998, conducted a survey of the professional field by circulating a petition calling for the government to reject the Kyoto agreement of December 1997, on the grounds that it would harm the environment, hinder science, and damage human health and welfare; that there was no scientific evidence that greenhouse gases were or were likely to cause disruption of the climate; and on the contrary there was substantial evidence that such release would in fact be beneficial. After six months the petition had collected over seventeen thousand signatures.
At about the same time the German Meteorologisches Institut Universitat Hamburg and Forschungszentium, in a survey of specialists from various branches of the climate sciences, found that 67 percent of Canadian scientists rejected the notion that any warming due to human activity is occurring, while in Germany the figure was 87 percent, and in the US, 97 percent. Some consensus for Kyoto!
The problem with the growth of scientific rigidity is troubling, and it goes far beyond global warming. Halton Arp's observational astrononomic work, which casts doubts upon the entire theory of what red shift means, which knocks away one of the central pillars of modern cosmology, including the big bang, was routinely vilified to the point that he left the country entirely, to take up a post in Germany at the Max Planck Institut. The work of Petr Beckmann, George Marklin and others in physics, which indicate that there are serious, fundamental flaws in the Einsteinian concept of relativity, are flatly rejected. Peter Duesberg's criticisms of the dominant AIDS orthodoxy have nearly ended his career.
It is as if scientists already know what the approved answers are, and are uninterested in looking at anything that might shake their fundamental world view. This not good for either science, or politics.
It’s exactly that sort of attitude in "science" that is allowing proponents of I.D. an opening. After all, nowadays lots of science, especially global warming, is more of a religious tenet than proven fact. Science is devaluing itself down to a level with I.D.
The scientific community took its time testing the multivarious aspects of Einstein’s general and special relativity theories before it adopted them as conventional wisdom.
The same process of testing weird-like ideas hasn’t been nearly so kind to Mr. Arp’s much less weird-sounding ideas of reality.
Must have something to do with test results, or the lack thereof.
Must have something to do with test results, or the lack thereof.
The trouble is that everyone who has looked has found Seyfert Galaxies between highly red-shifted quasar pairs. Which leads to lines like this in published papers that try to use the conventional explananation of gravitic lensing as the reason:
We interpret this observation as being due to the statistical gravitational lensing of background QSO’s [Quasi-Stellar Objects, i.e., quasars] by galaxy clusters. However, this overdensity cannot be accounted for in any cluster lensing model . . .
The only science mag I read is Scientific American, it is just at the right level to explain things to a layman. But unfortunantly they have gone off the deep end with the global warming thing. It’s not that I deny that climate change is happening, its just that there is no proven link to human behavior. Besides it has been much warmer in the recent past.
As if the sum total of everyone who has "looked" is the same thing as the physical proof of the relationship.
Harp may be right, and the rest of us wrong, but I’m not being convinced as to such a fact just by your emphatic resort to subjective statistics and interpretive observation in lieu of actual, physical proof.
Harp may be right, and the rest of us wrong, but I’m not being convinced as to such a fact just by your emphatic resort to subjective statistics and interpretive observation in lieu of actual, physical proof.
Dud. this is the comments section of a political blog. Is it really the place where you’d expect the debate over halton Arp would eb resolved> I mean, lighten up, Francis.
Good to see you have the proper Scholastic attitude though.
Science has always been like that. Just a little over a hundred years ago, the belief in Aether (some medium other than a vacuum that allowed light waves to propagate) was nearly universal.
I would like to point out that this is hardly a new phenom. For example Chandra’s work modelling Black holes was vigourously opposed by the Royal Academy. As they say old theories never die, just the people who believe them.
I got that book, too. I thought it would be interesting, so I sat down to take a closer look. I quickly saw a blurb that said the book shows that there’s "more evidence" for intelligent design than for evolution.
So, does that invalidate the rest of the book? Or are you just rejecting it because it questions the preferred answers of your own worldview? Does questioning evolution invalidate the problems of corruption at the intersection of Biug Government and Big Science?
It appears that the attitude of the scholastics isn’t confined to scientists, huh?
The ideas proposed in that book will stand or fall on their own merits. But when somebody makes outlandishly incorrect assertions like that, it gives me a good fix on their general credibility.
Or are you just rejecting it because it questions the preferred answers of your own worldview?
I’m rejecting that particularly argument, because Intelligent Design is unsupported hokum.
I really enjoy your blog, even though we often (usually) disagree. However, quoting extensively from James Hogan’s book about Arthur Robinson and the "petition" without any mention of the controversy surrounding Dr. Robinson and his petition is completely disingenuous and not up to your usual standards. Check the link for the other side of the Arthur Robinson story.
If General Relativity wasn’t a good model of reality in the areas it’s been tested, all those GPS guided munitions used in Iraq would be missing their targets!
On the subject of the post: I don’t think resistance to change in the establishment is anything new. I do think the over all quality of scientific research has gone down though. I would guess that although we’re doing maybe 100 times as much research as we were 100 years ago but only 10% is worthwhile.
Dud [sic]. this [sic] is the comments section of a political blog. Is it really the place where you’d expect the debate over halton[sic] Arp would eb [sic] resolved> [sic]
Nope. But you did interject him into the conversation...
The problem with the growth of scientific rigidity is troubling, and it goes far beyond global warming. Halton Arp’s observational astrononomic work, which casts doubts upon the entire theory of what red shift means, which knocks away one of the central pillars of modern cosmology, including the big bang, was routinely vilified to the point that he left the country entirely, to take up a post in Germany at the Max Planck Institut. The work of Petr Beckmann, George Marklin and others in physics, which indicate that there are serious, fundamental flaws in the Einsteinian concept of relativity, are flatly rejected. Peter Duesberg’s criticisms of the dominant AIDS orthodoxy have nearly ended his career.
You weren’t talking Science (hypothesis/prediction, experiment, observation, analysis, conclusion, presentation/peer review). You were talking science community politics (tribal factions).