The GOP and the Hispanic vote - see immigration Posted by: McQ
on Thursday, January 05, 2006
Here come the '06 midterms and The Latino Coalition has released its latest survey of Hispanics just in time to give the GOP heartburn. This survey has been pretty darn good in the past for predicting the behavior of the Hispanic population in this country:
"This survey has become the most reliable and accurate study on Hispanic political and consumer behavior in the U.S. The 2004 National Latino Survey was dead-on accurate in predicting the Latino vote in the 2004 elections," said TLC President Robert Deposada. "We predicted the nine-point spread between Senator Kerry and President Bush, while all other surveys predicted a Kerry win of over 30 points. The results of this year's survey offer similar surprising results and highlight the future trends of Latino adults and Latino voters in the U.S. However, contrary to past years these trends spell trouble for the Republican Party."
Trouble for the GOP? Pray, tell us, how so? First you have to look at group one, or "Hispanic registered voters":
"Hispanic registered voters are strongly supporting initiatives to reform immigration while penalizing illegal behavior. A majority of Hispanic voters (52.4 percent) support initiatives that would not allow people who entered this county illegally to become citizens unless they reapply from their country of origin," Deposada said. "By a margin of 50 percent to 41 percent, Hispanic voters support increasing the number of border patrol agents in our southern border, and also support new laws to make sure that employers can only hire workers who are in the U.S. legally (50 percent to 41 percent). An overwhelming majority of 82 percent support the creation of a new Temporary Worker Program. Also a plurality (41.2 percent to 39.9 percent) support imposing a fine of at least $2,000 for illegal immigrants in order to gain legal employment as a temporary worker in the U.S."
Or said another way, people who have paid the price and played by the rules to get and stay here want to see others do the same thing. Oh, how human of them. OTOH, how unRepublican of them. They want what the GOP seems unwilling to do.
But, as TLC points out, there's another subset of Hispanics in the country. The unregistred voter (any guess why?):
"Meanwhile, non-registered Latinos have completely different views on these issues," Deposada added. "They overwhelmingly oppose laws to make sure that employers can only hire legal immigrants (65 percent to 28 percent); oppose increasing the number of border patrol agents along our southern border (61 percent to 29 percent); and they support allowing illegal immigrants to have access to citizenship (50 percent to 40 percent)."
Well of course they do.
"While there has been enormous progress for the Republican Party under President George W. Bush, there is real danger for a repeat of the Pete Wilson era that alienated Hispanics from the GOP for years," Deposada added. "If the Republican leadership in Congress allows an extremist group to control the debate over immigration reform and put partisan rhetoric over real commonsense legislation, the GOP will eliminate all the progress achieved by President Bush in attracting Hispanics into the GOP."
"The Republican leadership in Congress has failed miserably in keeping the coattails of President Bush among Hispanic voters," Deposada said. "When compared to last year's number on the question of who does a better job at handling key issues, Democrats in Congress kept the same level of support John Kerry had and improved on it, while Republicans cut the numbers in half compared to President Bush"
Or said another way, whoever addresses immigration in the next presidential election along the lines of the desires of the registered Hispanic voters is most likely going to win the majority of that vote.
Immigration is going to be one of the hottest issues in the '08 election as I've been saying since the '04 election. The candidate who seizes on it early and puts forward a plank that reflects the Hispanic registered-voters position is the candidate which will take their party's nomination and, most likely, the White House (unless Bob Dole or John Kerry are the choices), it is that important. Not only is it an economic issue, but it is also a national security issue. If you're a party looking to bolster your national security profile, seems a natural to me.
Immigration is going to be one of the hottest issues in the ’08 election as I’ve been saying since the ’04 election.
Not in the presidential election. Neither party wants tougher enforcement on illegal immigration. The GOP doesn’t want it, because such laws "hurt" business. The Dems don’t want it because they see, perhaps incorrectly, tougher enforcement as alienating Hispanic voters. Moreover, Dems also want to remain friendly with business.
Just because the general population cares deeply about something doesn’t mean the parties do.
Thank you Tom Tancredo for showing us what republicans really have in their hearts. I had to hand it to Bush, he really was getting momentum from ignorant latinos that don’t understand the eurocentrism of the GOP. Now the republicans will surely loose the Latino vote along with the blacks and white progressives. All they will have left is racist whites that cater to their worst impulses with rhetoric that camoflauges their hatred. But deep inside we latinos know that racists whites want to change the rules in the middle of the game. It was O.K. and easy for their Euro. ancestors to easily come to this country and murder the true native americans but its wrong for mexicans to come to work and feed their families. By the way: in case you didn’t know, Mexicans are half native americans the true owners of this land, and half spaniard the first to land here. Morally we have a right to be here, but you will surely twist and turn the laws to appeal to your worst impulses. Oh well short term gain long term loss. Just as well. Brown and Proud-so long