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The Army isn’t broken
Posted by: McQ on Wednesday, January 25, 2006

There seems to be a concerted effort among some to make this conventional wisdom:
Stretched by frequent troop rotations to Iraq and Afghanistan, the Army has become a "thin green line" that could snap unless relief comes soon, according to a study for the Pentagon.
I'm not ready to buy into this yet. That's primarily because many of the indicators I'd suspect would be apparent in an army about to snap just don't seem to be there. Probably the most apparent of those indicators is re-enlistment. Re-enlistment exceeded the 2005 goal and is projected to exceed the 2006 goal. For those of us who served during the Vietnam era, that doesn't indicate an Army in trouble or ready to snap ... not yet. Unhappy soldiers in an army in trouble or about to snap or break just don't stick around. And they damn sure don't re-enlist in record numbers. The re-enlistment numbers speak to another important indicator. Morale. Dispiritied soldiers don't re-enlist. Soldiers with high morale do.

There's another point I'd like to address as well. It has to do with a premise of the report which concluded the army is stretched too thin and is about to break:
Andrew Krepinevich, a retired Army officer who wrote the report under a Pentagon contract, concluded that the Army cannot sustain the pace of troop deployments to Iraq long enough to break the back of the insurgency. He also suggested that the Pentagon's decision, announced in December, to begin reducing the force in Iraq this year was driven in part by a realization that the Army was overextended.
If you recall, Krepinevich is the one who published a controversial article in Foreign Affairs entitle "How to Win in Iraq". It centered on his "oil spot" strategy in which he likens the war on the insurgency to the spread of an oil spot. We put our troops in an area, we clear it and we hold it, moving out from the center where we began and continuing to clear and hold more and more territory (and presumably bringing in Iraqi troops as well). We do that from any number of locations and continue the operations until the oil spots overlap and interlock.

It would take a lot more troops and a heck of a lot more time.

It sounds like a wonderful way to defeat the insurgency if you assume your mission is to indeed fight and defeat the insurgency.

But it's not. Regardless of the fact that Krepinevich claims that to be the mission every chance he gets (such as the article cited and now this study) it is not our stated mission.

Our stated mission is to buy enough time for the Iraqi military and government to be in the shape necessary so they can eventually "break the back of the insurgency." That is a much shorter term and less troop intensive mission than actually defeating the insurgency.

If our mission was to indeed break the back of the insurgency, I'd agree with Krepinevich's conclusion (since it would take more troops and more time, both of which might indeed overburden the Army). Since that isn't our mission, his conclusion, while logical, is based on a false premise.

Does the Army have problems? Name an army engaged in a war in two different countries half way around the world that wouldn't. But as long as the soldiers and NCOs are staying and reelisting in excess of the needs of the Army, I can't bring myself to buy into this negative bit of spin that the Army is about to break.
 
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I thought the military was overstretched, overburdended, and ’broken’ during the Clinton era? Oops, sorry about that. Different time, different party, different talking point.

I’m not even sure what my point is, for those who are going to look to assign some sort of political position to my comment. I just find it interesting how the military is broken or in fine shape, at the same exact time, depending on who can politically benefit.

Actually, that is true of other things too, like the economy. Crime. National Security. Any number of things, actually.
 
Written By: Rosensteel
URL: http://
So would you call Krepinevich a defeatist?
And if so, why?
Our stated mission is to buy enough time for the Iraqi military and government to be in the shape necessary for them to "break the back of the insurgency."
If that is indeed our stated mission, achieving X, Y, and Z and call it a day, does that advance the ultimate, revisited argument of a stable Middle-East being the motivation?

And if one doesn’t agree that that it is all that is necessary to achieve that goal, is one considered a defeatist?

Curious.
 
Written By: PogueMahone
URL: http://
So would you call Krepinevich a defeatist?

And if so, why?
What part of, "If our mission was to indeed break the back of the insurgency, I’d agree with Krepinevich’s conclusion (since it would take more troops and more time, both of which might indeed overburden the Army). Since that isn’t our mission, his conclusion, while logical, is based on a false premise", didn’t you understand?

In my opinion he reached an invalid conclusion based on a false premise.

But he’s not standing on the sidelines and, based on a couple of conversations and trip to the hospital, claiming the military is collapsing, that he wouldn’t join the military today, no siree Bob, and that we’re the problem, not the solution. Nor is he citing polls as sufficient reason to abandon our responsiblity and cut and run.

So no, I wouldn’t call him a defeatist.
If that is indeed our stated mission, achieving X, Y, and Z and call it a day, does that advance the ultimate, revisited argument of a stable Middle-East being the motivation?
Unless you would argue that a stable and democratic Iraq is insufficient to help in that process, yes.
And if one doesn’t agree that that it is all that is necessary to achieve that goal, is one considered a defeatist?
Depends on how one frames his objection, doesn’t it?
 
Written By: McQ
URL: http://www.qando.net/
What part of, "If our mission was to indeed break the back of the insurgency, I’d agree with Krepinevich’s conclusion (since it would take more troops and more time, both of which might indeed overburden the Army). Since that isn’t our mission, his conclusion, while logical, is based on a false premise", didn’t you understand?

Well forgive me, McQ, if I didn’t quite grasp, “I’d agree with him if he wasn’t wrong”.

Depends on how one frames his objection, doesn’t it?


Yeah. As I’ve discovered.
Thin ice around here, huh?
 
Written By: PogueMahone
URL: http://
I’d agree with him if he wasn’t wrong”.
Being wrong isn’t in and of itself inherently "defeatist", Pogue. Good grief.

Are you just typing to see your words on the screen today?

These aren’t your best jabs buddy.
Yeah. As I’ve discovered.
You’ve just discovered that how one frames an argument has a lot to do with how it is received and perceived?

Where in the world have you been all this time?
Thin ice around here, huh?
Heh ... boy I’ll say.
 
Written By: McQ
URL: http://www.qando.net/
Are you just typing to see your words on the screen today?

Kinda’

You’ve just discovered that how one frames an argument has a lot to do with how it is received and perceived?


So when Murtha says, (paraphrase) “bring the troops home, because they’ve done all that has been asked of them”, he is not considered a defeatist? He’s just wrong? Alrighty, then.

And so when I say that giving the Iraqi’s training wheels isn’t enough to be victorious, I’m no longer a defeatist?
Thanks, man. That’s a load off my mind.

These aren’t your best jabs buddy.

Just wait till tomorrow. I’ll bring my "A" game.
 
Written By: PogueMahone
URL: http://
I wish someone could explain how a 2 million (+/-) man military can be overstreched by a 130,000 man commitment.

When will soneone have the nerve to declare " winning the war in Iraq is more importiant than defending Germany from ..., let’s see now, why are our troops in Germany, or Italy, or England, or France?

Let the Koreans deal with their own defense, as they don’t want us there anyways, and keep undercutting us with the North.

Thoes two moves should free up at least 75,000 troops, more than enough to finish the job.

If we need more, lets start looking at other locations where we have troops stationed that are not "hot spots".
 
Written By: irabk
URL: http://
So when Murtha says, (paraphrase) “bring the troops home, because they’ve done all that has been asked of them”, he is not considered a defeatist?

Too bad for Congressman Murtha that isn’t what he is saying.

 
Written By: Mark A. Flacy
URL: http://
irabk, the way a 2 million man army can be overstretched by a 130,000 deployment is that this is a deployment to a combat zone, with troops rotating in and out. That means that at any given time, while you have 130,000 troops deployed, you also have a sizeable amount of troops training to go to Iraq, and are thus unavailable for other contingencies/deployments, and also have a sizeable amount that have just gotten back, and are just as unavailable until they regenerate.

As for the countries you mentioned, the U.S. only has large amounts of troops in Germany, and a lot of them have been deployed in the GWOT. The main U.S. forces in the U.K. and Italy are USAF units, while the U.S. has not had a sizeable presence in France since they left NATO in the ’60s.

Korea is the only real spot where large numbers of U.S. forces are deployed and are unavailable for rotation into the CENTCOM AOR.
 
Written By: Mike
URL: http://www.noangst.blogspot.com
Too bad for Congressman Murtha that isn’t what he is saying.

No?
Perhaps you should enlighten him.

Among other things,
Our military has been fighting a war in Iraq for over two and a half years. Our military has accomplished its mission and done its duty.
 
Written By: PogueMahone
URL: http://
Perhaps you should enlighten him.
For heaven sake, Pogue, you act as if you’ve forgotten all about the quotes listed here.

Man, I hope you do bring your "A" game tomorrow because you’re in MK territory today.
 
Written By: McQ
URL: http://www.qando.net/
First, how exactly did we get from reenlistment meeting goals (the government’s claim) to "in excess of the needs of the army" (your paraphrase)? Is there really no possibility that the goals were set low to score a PR point? With this administration>? Riiiiight.

Second, we don’t have a two-million-man army and haven’t since WW2. Even counting the entire military you’d have to go back to 1990; the current number is around 1.3M total of which less than a half million are army. As for whether a deployment of 130K can strain that, maybe you’ve heard of the "tip of the spear" concept that for every pair of "boots on the ground" there are ten pairs in support or training. Troops need time to train, repair/upgrade (very complex) equipment, etc. Logistics and administration don’t handle themselves, and "private military contractors" don’t so much solve the problem as contribute to it by increasing actual numbers in the field. As it happens, that 10:1 ratio almost exactly fits the ratio between 1.3M active-duty troops and 130K in Iraq, so yes, such a deployment can strain even a military apparatus as large as ours.
 
Written By: Platypus
URL: http://pl.atyp.us
For heaven sake, Pogue, you act as if you’ve forgotten all about the quotes listed here.

How could I forget?
But that has no relevance to the pulled quote, does it?
I stated, “So when Murtha says, (paraphrase) “bring the troops home, because they’ve done all that has been asked of them”, he is not considered a defeatist?” Then Mark responds, “Too bad for Congressman Murtha that isn’t what he is saying.” I then provide evidence that it is indeed what Murtha said, almost verbatim.

So the quotes you provide have little meaning to my original query.
So when Murtha says, (paraphrase) “bring the troops home, because they’ve done all that has been asked of them”, he is not considered a defeatist? He’s just wrong? Alrighty, then.
Murtha may have said some questionable things, they do not have any relevance to my query, do they?

Man, I hope you do bring your "A" game tomorrow because you’re in MK territory today.

Changing the subject?
I thought that changing the subject was your perception of “MK territory”. Are you sure that it is not you that delves into “MK territory”?
;)
 
Written By: PogueMahone
URL: http://
First, how exactly did we get from reenlistment meeting goals (the government’s claim) to "in excess of the needs of the army" (your paraphrase)? Is there really no possibility that the goals were set low to score a PR point?
Well first there is a link and secondly, no, not re-enlistment goals. They’re set separately from recruitment goals and they’re based on the needs of the military to retain trained personel. That’s a percentage goal which really doesn’t change unless the size of the military changes.
 
Written By: McQ
URL: http://www.qando.net/
So the quotes you provide have little meaning to my original query.
Wasn’t the original query "what constitutes defeatism" or words to that effect? Sorry buddy, but you can’t only accept certain quotes in that regard.
Murtha may have said some questionable things, they do not have any relevance to my query, do they?
Well of course they do. You see I also paraphrased Murtha when I earlier said:
But he’s not standing on the sidelines and, based on a couple of conversations and trip to the hospital, claiming the military is collapsing, that he wouldn’t join the military today, no siree Bob, and that we’re the problem, not the solution. Nor is he citing polls as sufficient reason to abandon our responsiblity and cut and run.
Perhaps, in your fog today, you just didn’t recognize him in there.
Changing the subject?
Nah, just a friendly observation made to help a buddy in rhetorical trouble.
I thought that changing the subject was your perception of “MK territory”. Are you sure that it is not you that delves into “MK territory”?
See this is what I mean ... you’re just off today.

I delt with the subject and then added a new one. That’s completely different than MK’s propensity for throwing out the old red herring within the first few words of any comment he makes and completely ignoring the subject of the post.

Get with it, old boy.
 
Written By: McQ
URL: http://www.qando.net/
Sorry buddy, but you can’t only accept certain quotes in that regard.

Sure I can. And I did.

Wasn’t the original query "what constitutes defeatism" or words to that effect?

No. The query was,
So when Murtha says, (paraphrase) “bring the troops home, because they’ve done all that has been asked of them”, he is not considered a defeatist? He’s just wrong? Alrighty, then.
Forget Murtha for a moment. What if I said, “the military has done it’s job. And it cannot sustain an indefinite siege in Iraq to see the end of the insurgency.” Would I therefore be classified as a defeatist?
According to you, I’m not a defeatist, I just base my opinion on a “false premise”.

What you’re telling me is, that when Murtha says the same thing, it must be joined with his other statements. And here I thought that statements were allowed to stand by themselves.
Guess not.

Nah, just a friendly observation made to help a buddy in rhetorical trouble.


Sympathy for me??? You must be in a good mood today. And I appreciate your concern.
(Sympathy for me??? Okay, now, McQ. I set it up for you… Now take it home.)
:)
 
Written By: PogueMahone
URL: http://
What if I said, “the military has done it’s job. And it cannot sustain an indefinite siege in Iraq to see the end of the insurgency.” Would I therefore be classified as a defeatist?
No ... in fact I’d agree with you to a point. Where we’d diverge is at the "military has done its job" juncture.
According to you, I’m not a defeatist, I just base my opinion on a “false premise”.
In that particular case, and it is a particular case, not a general rule, yes, that’s all I’d see that as.

Look, there’s nothing wrong with an opinion which disagrees with how the war is being run if it also offers a reasonable alternative.

"Let’s get the hell out of dodge, the army is broken and living from hand to mouth, screw our obligations, Bush lied and if I were a young man today you couldn’t get me to join the military", isn’t a resonable alternative. It’s the blather of a defeatist.
What you’re telling me is, that when Murtha says the same thing, it must be joined with his other statements. And here I thought that statements were allowed to stand by themselves.
Heh ... you’ve been hanging out with MK too much my friend. No, what you want to do is only include what you think will make your point and ignore the bulk of his other comments because they’re inconvenient to your point.

I perceive nothing in Krepinevich’s statement that says the ’same thing’ Murtha has said. For one thing Krepinevich says it may happen (the Army may break) if this continues unabated, Murtha says it has happened already. Where I come from, that isn’t saying the same thing. In fact, Krepinevich’s statement disagrees with Murthas.
Sympathy for me??? You must be in a good mood today. And I appreciate your concern.
So what ... you want a kiss or something?

Ok, but no tongues.
 
Written By: McQ
URL: http://www.qando.net/
Our military has been fighting a war in Iraq for over two and a half years. Our military has accomplished its mission and done its duty.

Since the mission is to provide a level of stability until the Iraqis can and do take over their internal defense, I’d say that he’s wrong in that specific quote. Should I call him a madman so that I can ignore everything that he says?

 
Written By: Mark A. Flacy
URL: http://
Is there really no possibility that the goals were set low to score a PR point? With this administration>? Riiiiight.

Fuck you. One of my USMA classmates is in the position to know such a thing and I asked him point blank.

They weren’t.

 
Written By: Mark A. Flacy
URL: http://
secondly, no, not re-enlistment goals
OK, then maybe you can explain why your link has the text "re-enlistment goals" so we can see who’s really missing that distinction.
They’re set separately from recruitment goals and they’re based on the needs of the military to retain trained personel. That’s a percentage goal which really doesn’t change unless the size of the military changes.
Really?
The Army and Marine Corps set numerical retention goals; the Air Force and Navy state their retention goals in terms of percentages of those able to reenlist.
Such misrepresentation is unnecessary to make your point and only undermines it.
Fuck you. One of my USMA classmates is in the position to know such a thing and I asked him point blank.
What a fine representative of USMA you are. I wonder what your commandant would think of that. Maybe you can redeem yourself (a little) by explaining how any cadet at USMA would know so much about what’s going on at the command level where civilian politics come into play.
 
Written By: Platypus
URL: http://pl.atyp.us
OK, then maybe you can explain why your link has the text "re-enlistment goals" so we can see who’s really missing that distinction.
You lost me. I used the wording of the cite. "Goals" seems a perfectly good word for what they attempt to achieve.
Such misrepresentation is unnecessary to make your point and only undermines it.
Well that’s a change from when I served. We had percentage goals then. Acknowledged and thanks for the cite.
 
Written By: McQ
URL: http://www.qando.net/
What a fine representative of USMA you are. I wonder what your commandant would think of that. Maybe you can redeem yourself (a little) by explaining how any cadet at USMA would know so much about what’s going on at the command level where civilian politics come into play.
While I agree with you taking umbrage at his tone, he didn’t say his classmate was still at the Point. He merely said they were classmates. Do you not consider the folks you see at your high school (and/or college) reunion(s) your "classmates?"
 
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