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10 signs the US will bomb Iran
Posted by: McQ on Friday, February 24, 2006

From Strategy Page with the disclaimer that no secrets are being revealed here ... this is pretty well known by all, although you may find some of the indicators, well, humorous, like number 7 for instance. But if you take them as a whole, they would indeed tell you something's up. The whole point is unless you see most of these going on, don't take the "pundit prattle" too seriously.

Also be advised that since these are well known, they're sometimes done (with no intention of carrying through) just to ratchet the tension level up a notch or two and see if doing so will pay dividends on the diplomatic front.
1. – The U.S. Navy stages a "surge exercise" and moves six carrier battle groups into the Indian Ocean.

2. – A "regularly scheduled exercise" moves Patriot Missile Batteies to Iraq, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia. These exercises happen from time to time, but if they happen when other things are happening…

3. - Movement of B-52 and B1B bombers to the island of Diego Garcia (in the Indian Ocean).

4. - Deployment of F117 stealth bombers and F-22 fighters to anywhere in the Persian Gulf.

5. - Deployment of B-2 Stealth Bombers to Guam, where there are special facilities for maintaining these aircraft.

6. - Lockdown of Whitman Air Force Base (where most B-2 bombers are stationed) in Missouri.

7. - Increased delivery of Pizza to Pentagon.

8. –Sudden loss of cell service near some air force bases (from which heavy bombers would depart). At the same time, there would be sightings of Middle Eastern looking guys around these bases, trying to get their cell phones to work, while being observed by what appears to be FBI agents.

9. - Deployment of KC-135/KC-10 aerial tankers to Diego Garcia, Guam and the Persian Gulf.

10. - America asks nations neighboring Iran for basing and over flight rights.

Remember, this pretty much all has to happen at the same time for it to be a real indication that something's up, and, as stated, it may be happening all for show. Call it international arm-twisting.
 
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They neglect to mention when Shrub’s approval rating falls to below 40% or when Chimpy McHitlerburton has invested heavily in oil futures...OK, OK I’m just kidding, but I’d imagine that at the Kos they’d be adding these to the list.
 
Written By: Joe
URL: http://
Cross out #9. With the exception of Guam, there has never been an absence of big refuelers in those places since October 2001. And they often transit Guam.
 
Written By: Nathan
URL: http://brain.mu.nu/
I think this is tongue in cheek. Strategy Page’s version of Letterman’s Top Ten.

Middle eastern guys with cell phones and what appears to be FBI agents?

I think if you look back over the past 20 years, you can sort US combat ops into two buckets: lots of early warning and no early warning. The military seems to do a pretty good job of OPSEC when they want/need to.

My guess is that if there ever is a strike at Iran’s nuke infrastructure, we won’t know about it until it’s over. The public buildup for Desert Storm and OIF were necessary conditions for attack. That wasn’t needed for Panama or Afghanistan, operations were suprise was of more value.



 
Written By: Steve
URL: http://
I agree that he’s added some stuff that’s funny, but for the most part, seeing all of that happen would indeed position forces for a strike on Iran. And probably the most teltale sign would be the pizzas. ;)

As for not knowing about it till it’s over, you’re right, because the majority of us wouldn’t know if the indicators were in motion or not. But those guys with the cell phones would. And don’t forget, if you’ve read "Blackhawk Down", it all began with a series of phone calls when the Rangers lifted off to go on the mission that ended with the blackhawks going down. So while humorous, it’s certainly not as farfetched as it may seem.
The military seems to do a pretty good job of OPSEC when they want/need to.
Yeah, but certain airplanes are still based at certain bases and they still have to fly to get where they’re going (and it would be obvious to anyone interested when they’re doing so), so while it OPSEC may be tight, the military can’t control the signature of all the indicators to the point that no one would notice. And, again, it is the sum of these indicators that would begin to add up to a possible strike ... not just one or two. Additionally, if you don’t think Iran isn’t aware of these indicators and doesn’t have agents who’s entire job is to monitor them (well, except maybe the pizza) and report, I’ve got some land east of FL you might be interested in.
 
Written By: McQ
URL: http://www.qando.net/
Of course they are aware of these indicators. And like as not they have identified many more relevant to their particular situation.

While DoD can’t control the circumstances of all the indicators, it’s not beyond their power to confuse the issue with contradictions. Schwarzkopf spent over a month waving his right fist at the Iraqi’s and then clobbered them with a left.

If you want to use surprise, and you would like to have it for an airstrike(s) in Iran, you’ll have to be creative and think like the red team.














 
Written By: Steve
URL: http://
While DoD can’t control the circumstances of all the indicators, it’s not beyond their power to confuse the issue with contradictions. Schwarzkopf spent over a month waving his right fist at the Iraqi’s and then clobbered them with a left.
Yeah, I understand that, which is why countries have intelligence agencies and employ analysts. But the bottom line is if we’re going to strike Iran by air, we’re going to have to do certain things to gather the appropriate force to do that. And the above list is a rather good starting point in assessing whether that’s happening or not.
 
Written By: McQ
URL: http://www.qando.net/
I’m not disputing the list. Most of the points are fundamental and highlight limitations we have in force structure and geogprahy.

I think the original list should have been titled, "Top 10 Reasons That You Might Want to Think About Hiding Your Nuclear Weapons".

I was inspired by #8. Keystone Kops immediately crossed my mind.

Suspicious looking men frantically trying to dial Tehran, being observed by other men hidden in bushes wearing windbreakers emblazoned with "FBI".

 
Written By: Steve
URL: http://
#8 did give me a chuckle as well. And yes, we have to go about it a certain way and in a free country it’s pretty tough to conceal.

But it can be used to our benefit too and that’s another aspect of playing the diplomatic game. It forces our enemies to fish or cut bait when they get those calls.

I’m reminded of the group that went to Hati and informed the ruling mob that the 82nd Abn Div had just gone wheels up and was on the way to see them.

I’m sure the guy at the end of the runway with a cell phone convinced them that indeed that was true, whether that was where the 50 aircraft leaving Pope AFB were going or not.
 
Written By: McQ
URL: http://www.qando.net/

 
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