Meta-Blog

SEARCH QandO

Email:
Jon Henke
Bruce "McQ" McQuain
Dale Franks
Bryan Pick
Billy Hollis
Lance Paddock
MichaelW

BLOGROLL QandO

 
 
Recent Posts
The Ayers Resurrection Tour
Special Friends Get Special Breaks
One Hour
The Hope and Change Express - stalled in the slow lane
Michael Steele New RNC Chairman
Things that make you go "hmmmm"...
Oh yeah, that "rule of law" thing ...
Putting Dollar Signs in Front Of The AGW Hoax
Moving toward a 60 vote majority?
Do As I Say ....
 
 
QandO Newsroom

Newsroom Home Page

US News

US National News
Politics
Business
Science
Technology
Health
Entertainment
Sports
Opinion/Editorial

International News

Top World New
Iraq News
Mideast Conflict

Blogging

Blogpulse Daily Highlights
Daypop Top 40 Links

Regional

Regional News

Publications

News Publications

 
Immigration appears to be the issue du jour in Congressional races
Posted by: McQ on Monday, June 05, 2006

Tomorrow, as we discussed on the podcast, the special Congressional election to replace Randy "Duke" Cunningham will take place. On one side we have those who are saying that, in fact, we shouldn't read too much into this election. It probably doesn't have any national implications. On the other side, there are those, myself included, who think that this particular race may indeed reflect not only the top issues for '06 (immigration and Iraq) but may presage the outcome. And if the 50th Congressional district is indeed a preview of November, the Republicans have some real problems:
From districts along the Mexican border to deeply landlocked districts, immigration has become both a rallying cry for Republicans in some races and a wedge that splinters Republicans in other races. With polls showing nearly 90 percent of Americans viewing illegal immigration as a "serious" problem, the issue is sure to haunt this fall's elections.
Already on the defensive over Iraq, Republicans now face a split within their ranks on the immigration issue.

How bad is the split?
California Republican Brian Bilbray — aiming to fill the San Diego seat vacated by convicted felon Randy "Duke" Cunningham — is running on the platform of "Proven Tough on Illegal Immigration" and is favored to beat his Democratic opponent, who supports the Senate Republican immigration plan that would grant citizenship rights to some 10 million illegal aliens.

Sen. John McCain, the Arizona Republican who is one of the main authors of the Senate immigration bill, canceled a fundraiser last week for Mr. Bilbray after the candidate publicly attacked Mr. McCain's plan because he said it granted "amnesty" to illegals.
And that in a very, very tight race.

More examples:
But congressional campaigns much farther from the border are also turning on the issue of immigration, none more so than Rep. Chris Cannon's effort to hold onto his Utah seat for a 6th term.

Mr. Cannon says he wants to secure the border and opposes amnesty. But the former business executive also favors a guest-worker program that would bring into the U.S. large numbers of foreign migrant workers.

That's a view held by many Republicans, including President Bush. But even more than 700 miles from the border, opposition to the president's plan has become the primary focus for the campaign of Republican challenger John D. Jacob, who beat Mr. Cannon at the GOP convention last month. The two face a primary later this month since neither garnered 60 percent of delegate votes at the convention.

Mr. Cannon has established a campaign task force to advise him on immigration, to which Mr. Jacob responded: "First, we almost certainly don't need another task force to back burner this issue. The right and simple answer is to obey our laws."
Many Republicans want to have it both ways. Appeal to those who want to secure the border but also favor a large and extensive guest worker program favored by businesses. It is something which isn't selling well among Republican voters who tend to equate "guest workers" with amnesty despite the anti-amnesty rhetoric.

Another example can be found in Tennessee:
In Tennessee, former Republican Rep. Ed Bryant is also campaigning on the issue in his quest to succeed Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist. Last week, he made a trip to the U.S.-Mexico border and held a telephone press conference with reporters while standing just yards from the border, describing the scene.

"The three biggest issues I'm hearing about is immigration three times," Mr. Bryant, a former federal prosecutor, told reporters. "We have to do something yesterday on this."
Bryant recognizes the importance of the issue among Republicans and is, naturally, exploiting it in a bid to succeed Frist in the Republican primary. He's using the split to differentiate himself from Frist and hopes that will be enough to make him the choice.

Immigration, as I've been trumpeting for over a year, will end up being the major issue for this race and the '08 presidential race. As long as Republicans ignore their base and remain split on the issue, one of two things is going to happen. Incumbents such as Frist are going to be in danger of losing in the primaries to candidates who better reflect the wishes of the political base of their party (whether you agree with the base or not), or, if they survive the primary, lose in the general election when that now unrepresented base stays home.

As we've noted here at QandO, much effort on both sides of the isle since the '90s has gone into making most Congressional seats safe for incumbents. But that may all go out the window in November for Republicans if they don't appease their base on this issue. Their base feels their wishes are being ignored in favor of big money interests who prefer more of the status quo than tougher immigration standards. A base which feels ignored and unrepresented on a major issue such as immigration and discouraged about Iraq and the spending binge Congress has been on may simply decide "what's the use?" and stay home.

The more I read about it and the more I consider it, the more convinced I am that that may indeed be what happens in November. The scare tactic of "Speaker Pelosi" is losing its effectiveness and the belief that they "couldn't do any worse" is gaining momentum.

There's also another train of thought which says if the Democrats seize the House, they'll manage to easily shoot themselves in the foot prior to '08 to such an extent that the voting public will tire of them quickly and put Republicans back in office that year. True or not, it is within that group that you find the most conservatives who think it important that an arrogant and non-responsive Republican party be taught a lesson this November and they are becoming more and more willing to suffer for two years with divided government.

Of course many libertarians have come to the conclusion that divided government is in our and the country's best interest. My guess is they too will work toward dividing it this November as well.

So watch tomorrow's election in California and see how it turns out. Key is the conservative Republican base. And if they don't turn out there in a district heavily impacted by illegal immigration, I'd expect that to be the trend in November assuming that Republicans in Congress remain split over the issue. And if my prediction about no immigration reform law holds true, look for a change in the House come this November as well.
 
TrackBacks
Return to Main Blog Page
 
 

Previous Comments to this Post 

Comments
On the other side, there are those, myself included, who think that this particular race may indeed reflect not only the top issues for ’06 (immigration and Iraq) but may presage the outcome. And if the 50th Congressional district is indeed a preview of November, the Republicans have some real problems:
Seeing as the Democrat for Cunningham’s seat was recently caught on tape telling illegals that "you don’t need papers to vote" I think you may see that seat will become a bellweather for something quite different that you’re writing about.
 
Written By: shark
URL: http://
Bryant recognizes the importance of the issue among Republicans and is, naturally, exploiting it in a bid to unseat Frist in the Republican primary.
Actually, Frist isn’t running. In a rare case of a politician actually keeping his word, Frist said in 1994 he’d do two terms and get out, and he’s sticking with that. There is speculation he also intends to run for president, and wants to be unfettered with his Senate seat, but I think the primary reason is that he really stuck to his very public pledge about only two terms.

The main opposition to Bryant is a fuzzy moderate who is ex-Mayor of Chattanooga - Bob Corker. Ex-representative Van Hilleary is also running. Ed Bryant, who ran a close race to Lamar Alexander in the primary two years ago, is definitely favored at this point.

Just to get everything relevant out, the Democratic candidate is almost certain to be Representative Harold Ford from Memphis. Ford is sober enough to oppose Nancy Pelosi for the House leadership a few years ago. But he has some real family baggage, and short a "reverse-1994" year, his chances don’t look good in the state that wouldn’t even give Al Gore his home state for the presidency in 2000.
 
Written By: Billy Hollis
URL: http://
Actually, Frist isn’t running.
You’re right and obviously not clear in my post. The point I was trying to make is the differentiation. I should have said "succeed" v. "unseat" (which I will now do).
 
Written By: McQ
URL: http://www.qando.net/blog
Seeing as the Democrat for Cunningham’s seat was recently caught on tape telling illegals that "you don’t need papers to vote" I think you may see that seat will become a bellweather for something quite different that you’re writing about.
We’ll see. I think mind’s have mostly been made up there and, as I pointed to in a previous post, if the polls are correct, it is the 1% undecided who’ll be the difference, and that is way too thin for a predominantly and traditionally strong Republican district (despite the Democratic challengers dumb remark).
 
Written By: McQ
URL: http://www.qando.net/blog
We’ll see. I think mind’s have mostly been made up there and, as I pointed to in a previous post, if the polls are correct, it is the 1% undecided who’ll be the difference, and that is way too thin for a predominantly and traditionally strong Republican district (despite the Democratic challengers dumb remark).
I still think you’re totally off-base in using this one as a bellweather on immigration. This is a seat vacated by a scandal, and that is looming large, spoken in the rhetoric or not.

A real possible bellweather is what happened in PA
 
Written By: shark
URL: http://
I still think you’re totally off-base in using this one as a bellweather on immigration. This is a seat vacated by a scandal, and that is looming large, spoken in the rhetoric or not.
That’s fair, although I have pointed to other races where immigration is becoming key. And, one of the reasons I continue to point to the 50th is its proximity to the border. Hard to deny immigration won’t play a large part in the voter calculus there.
A real possible bellweather is what happened in PA
That story’s only half told. Now we need to see what happens in the general election to these unknowns that beat the incumbents.
 
Written By: McQ
URL: http://www.qando.net/blog
A real possible bellweather is what happened in PA
It would have impact if people knew about it. I have yet to encounter anyone who doesn’t read blogs who’s heard anything about it. Are any national publications doing anything with this story?
 
Written By: Billy Hollis
URL: http://
To me, it feels like 1992 without Ross Perot or Pat Buchanan. The Rep. base just doesn’t believe their politicianws when they say they will enforce secure borders but we also need.... Bush et al. just don’t have any credibility anymore. Some, like me, believe that the country can survive at least two years of democrats in power. It is worth the risk to get rid of the current slate of so-called republicans in office.
 
Written By: timactual
URL: http://
Well, consider they’re working on reminding their base they’re ’against gay marrige’.

As if that was an issue of national importance on par with illegal immigration.
Stand by for nothing done on illegal immigration but plenty of talk on how important it is to prevent gays from saying they’re ’married’.
 
Written By: looker
URL: http://
Speaking as a conservative, I’d agree with the divided government idea. However, I would prefer a GOP congress and a Dem presidency, since then the GOP is at least listening more to the base rather than to Bush or whatever other corrupt blueblood the big money had decided would be the GOP nominee for prez.

I’ll personally be watching for those Republicans who support the Bush-McCain- Kennedy amnesty/guest worker program to get slaughtered in the primaries and general election.
 
Written By: bgmanofid
URL: http://
I can already hear the drum roll for the Traitorous dog, Chris Cannon (R-UT). Like so many other who signed American Democracy away on May 25, he will be climbing in the Tumbrel, heading for Madame Guillotine. Anybody who signed his name in the sitting Senate to the obscene Immigration Bill S.2611,will be placing their heads on the block waiting for the blade to fall on November 7. He certainly will not be making that one-way-trip alone? Chris Cannon signed his own political Death Warrant, when he went along with the Democrats and Republicans on Blanket Amnesty and a Guest worker program.

A little quote about Utah’s Chris Cannon

Chris Cannon And The Betrayal Of Utah

By Joe Guzzardi
http://www.vdare.com/guzzardi/cannon.htm

According to Ken Thomson, a former Utah Republican Delegate and current Executive Director of Utahns for Immigration Reform, “The people in Utah consider immigration a California problem.”

In 1988, when I moved back to California from Seattle, I saw that immigration had completely changed the Golden State. The California that I grew up in and loved was gone. And through my job at the Lodi Adult School, I could see that greater erosion for California was certain.

I called friends in North Carolina, Georgia and New Jersey to tell them about what immigration had done to California.

“That’s your problem,” they replied. “We’re okay here.”

I told them it was only a matter of time. Now, fifteen years later, they wish they had listened.

If Utah doesn’t wise up, it will be in the tank right next to California.

Earlier this month, Governor Leavitt visited Mexican President Vicente Fox at Fox’s Los Pinos compound. And here’s what Leavitt told Fox about issues of crucial importance to Mexico:

Matricula Consular Card—-strongly supportive!

Driver’s Licenses for Illegal Aliens—by all means!

Synchronize the Utah school calendar with Mexico’s—Why not?

Share a common curriculum—it only makes sense!

Use text books in Spanish and teachers from Mexico—But of course!

Televise classes via satellite directly to Utah—I was about to suggest it!

Naturally, Leavitt supports the in-state tuition fees for illegal aliens attending state universities as outlined in Orrin Hatch’s Dream Act and Chris Cannon’s Student Adjustment Act.

After meeting with Leavitt, Fox told the Salt Lake Tribune,

“This kind of visit, like the one done by the governor, is the best way to work together, building a future for both [the United States and Mexico]."[ Mexico’s Fox, Leavitt Huddle By Tim Sullivan, The Salt Lake Tribune, February 4, 2003]

But what Utah gets out of this—except the bill and the additional immigration that will certainly follow—is exactly zip.

Let’s look more closely at Chris Cannon. Of all of the two-faced oddballs that are constantly pumping for more, more and still more freebees for illegal immigrants, he must be on the top of the list.

Even by the abysmally low standards set by politicians, Cannon has astonishing cheek. He can look you in the eye and lie to you. And Cannon’s lies are even bolder since he knows that you know that he is lying.

At David Horowitz’s 2002 Restoration Weekend, Cannon told Michelle Malkin that he is completely opposed to illegal immigration. But only a few months earlier at the MALDEF Excellence in Leadership award ceremony, of all places, Cannon said:

“We love immigrants in Utah. And we don’t often times make the distinction between legal and illegal. In fact, I think Utah was the first state in the country to legislate the ability to get a driver’s license based on the matricula consular card and of that I am proud.”

You heard him - “Proud!”

And, according to Cannon, legal and illegal are the same? That would be distressing news to his Brigham Young University law professors.

Cannon seemed to have a very clear idea of legal vs. illegal when he was a Trial Manager for the Republicans in the impeachment proceedings against President Bill Clinton in 1999.

In his opening statement, Cannon quoted John Locke (no less) about the law: “Wherever law ends, tyranny begins.”

Then Cannon, in his next breath, recalled the words of Teddy Roosevelt:

“No man is above the law and no man is below it.”

Cannon argued passionately about the illegalities of obstruction of justice and cited chapter and verse from the Articles of Impeachment.

But only a few years later, Cannon seemingly can’t get a handle on the difference between someone who is legally in the U.S. and someone who is not.

The Clinton trial was not the only time Cannon huffed and puffed for the enforcement of the nation’s laws. Two years later, on September 20, 2001 Cannon was on his soapbox in front of the International Trade Commission railing against the perils of “dumping” foreign steel in the U.S.

Since Cannon and his brother Joe were the owners of the now defunct Geneva Steel Company, his speech was even more self-serving than his diatribe against Clinton.

Said Cannon:

“…illegal trade practices of foreign countries” [jeopardize the future of U.S. steel mills;] “…foreign steel companies and the governments that support them must observe the law….”

Cannon’s testimony ago takes on a special significance when read in light of his support of guest worker/amnesty programs.

According to Capitol Hill insiders, Cannon and Senators Saxby Chambliss (R-GA) and Larry Craig (R-ID) are itching to introduce such legislation this year.

U.S. workers be damned!

But when the future of Cannon’s Geneva Steel was threatened by foreign competition, he stressed how hurtful illegal practices are:

“It is not just American companies that are adversely affected by these illegal actions, American families are hurting the most. I have personally witnessed the harm caused to steel workers and their families after losing their jobs. These families are suffering tremendously, struggling to buy food and pay bills.”

I wonder if pandering to Mexican lobbyists has anything to do with Cannon’s change of heart?

Utahns, you have your hands full with Leavitt/Hatch/Cannon.

And the news gets worse. Fox has sized you up as a patsy. He’ll soon be sending a contingent of “migratory specialists” to Utah.

Sew up your pockets. And don’t say I didn’t warn you.
 
Written By: Dave Cullen
URL: http://

 
Add Your Comment
  NOTICE: While we don't wish to censor your thoughts, we do blacklist certain terms of profanity or obscenity. This is not to muzzle you, but to ensure that the blog remains work-safe for our readers. If you wish to use profanity, simply insert asterisks (*) where the vowels usually go. Your meaning will still be clear, but our readers will be able to view the blog without worrying that content monitoring will get them in trouble when reading it.
Comments for this entry are closed.
Name:
Email:
URL:
HTML Tools:
Bold Italic Blockquote Hyperlink
Comment:
   
 
Vicious Capitalism

Divider

Buy Dale's Book!
Slackernomics by Dale Franks

Divider

Divider