Forget party registrations. They don’t mean much. It’s more important to look at actual voting patterns for the district. And, actually, Francine Busby got about the same percentage of the vote as did Kerry in ’04, and Gore in 2000. So you can’t discount the fact that, while Bilbray didn’t do as well as Republicans usually do in my district (I live in the 50th as well), Francine Busby wasn’t able to draw any greater percentage of Democratic voters.
So, this supports my argument that the turnout for Democrats is probably already maximized. It’s Republican turnout that will be the key. |
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Written By:
Dale Franks
URL:
http://www.qando.net
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"The fact that Busby got 15 points over Democratic registration, that should make Republicans nervous"
But then why shouldn’t the fact that Kerry got 13 points over Democratic registration have been a symbol of doom in 2004 — which it obviously wasn’t. A district that went for Bush by 5 points over his national average is a Republican district to be sure, but it isn’t so solidly Republican that it is outside the realm of possibility for a Democrat to win in it.
You know that I don’t believe that special elections are particular harbingers of anything, but at worst there is plenty for both side to crow about here. |
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Written By:
Sean
URL:
http://www.myelectionanalysis.com
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If what I’ve emphasized isn’t worrisome, to Republicans nationally, it ought to be. Honestly? I don’t think it is. Based upon the form letters that I get from my non-RINO congressman and senators in response to my pleadings for border security first, they give me the impression that they prefer to continue equivocating. |
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Written By:
coffee
URL:
http://
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I suggest everyone interested in this race and the possible national implications should read Jay Cost’s article at realclearpolitics.com. |
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Written By:
Nuclear
URL:
http://
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The LLL m0oNb@+5 can spin this five ways from Sunday, but at the end of the day the vote was split 60/40 Republican/Democrat (same as the voter demographics). Unless Bilbray gets caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy he will sail into re-election in November. |
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Written By:
Cyber Sarge
URL:
http://
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