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Iraq: Al Qaeda papers show gloomy group
Posted by: McQ on Thursday, June 15, 2006

This is fascinating stuff. It also appears to be Iraq day on the blog. Such is life.

A little insight into the state of mind of the al Queda operation in Iraq. While I mentioned it in passing below, some more specifics have been released from the papers found the the house Zarqawi was in when found and killed:
"Generally speaking and despite the gloomy present situation, we find that the best solution in order to get out of this crisis is to involve the U.S. forces in waging a war against another country or any hostile groups," the document said, as quoted by al-Maliki's office.

According to the summary, insurgents were being weakened by operations against them and by their failure to attract recruits. To give new impetus to the insurgency, they would have to change tactics, it added.

"We mean specifically attempting to escalate the tension between America and Iran, and American and the Shiite in Iraq," it quoted the documents as saying, especially among moderate followers of Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the most influential Shiite cleric in Iraq.

"Creating disputes between America and them could hinder the U.S. cooperation with them, and subsequently weaken this kind of alliance between Shiites and the Americans," it said, adding that "the best solution is to get America involved in a war against another country and this would bring benefits."

They included "opening a new front" for the U.S. military and releasing some of the "pressure exerted on the resistance."
Al Qaeda is desperately looking for ways to change the dynamic which was apparently beginning to inflict heavy damage on their infrastructure and had apparently badly effected their recruiting efforts.

Of course in the last two paragraphs, they're talking fantasy stuff. AQ's never been a terribly subtle organization or particularly sophisticated in its ability to foment something as audacious as war between Iran and the US. And while it certainly is a pipe-dream in real terms, it does indeed point to how desperate they are to change the trend which so effected their abilities to operate and recruit in Iraq.
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Previous Comments to this Post 

Written By: shark
URL: http://
D@MN you Shark! Beaten to the punch...
Written By: Joe
URL: http://
The real story in Iraq is that the necessary political compromises appear to be underway. The focus on Al Qaeda is generally misplaced, since at most they were an effective tool of the Sunnis. It always seemed clear to me that once the Sunnis accomplished their goals (or realized that they had gotten as much as they were going to get), they would cut Al Qaeda loose, which appears to be what is happening. What will be important to see is whether the non-Al Qaeda related violence starts to subside, through some combination of increased military and police enforcement and political deals. There is still a reasonable chance that a stable government can arise and survive. It won’t be a Western-style democracy, but at least it won’t be total chaos.
Written By: Steven Donegal
URL: http://
The focus on Al Qaeda is generally misplaced, since at most they were an effective tool of the Sunnis.
Except as a psychological propaganda tool, Steven. This all isn’t just about Iraq, and AQ has/had grown to fairly mystical heights in much of the jihadi community. Popping that balloon (or at least deflating it) is more than a little useful in the big scheme of the GWoT.
Written By: McQ
True, but then I’ve never viewed Al Qaeda as the existential threat that many do. An unstable and chaotic Iraq is a far more serious threat to our interests than Al Qaeda.

Written By: Steven Donegal
URL: http://

This overall gloominess on the part of AQ was the prevalent condition BEFORE the two 500-pounders hit the farmhouse; and BEFORE the intelligence bounty gained triggered twenty other anti-terrorist raids.

I’m sure those two booms and the subsequent raids didn’t provide any reason for AQ to suddenly become optimistic.

Fortunately, we can help. Congressman Jim McDermott is a trained psychiatrist:

—-Tom Nally
Written By: Tom Nally
URL: http://
Lots of countries are unstable and chaotic - Colombia has been fighting the FARC for years. Nepal has a Maoist insurgency.

If the only difference is that Iraq is Islamic, well, we’d better hurry up and all pitch in to make sure Iraq succeeds instead of packing up and running since Islam will not go away tomorrow.

Written By: Harun
URL: http://
For me the analogy is...

Leaving Iraq now would be like, having just taught your child how to ride a bike, and taken the training wheels off, you shoved them down a hill directly into traffic.

They aren’t quite there yet. I think they are closer to being a functioning government/security force then they have in the last 3 years.
Written By: Keith, Indy
URL: http://

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