Posted by: Jon Henke on Wednesday, July 05, 2006 At first glance, it's very difficult to tell what North Korea was hoping to accomplish with their recent missile tests. The threat of indeterminate missile capability was one of the few tools in the North Korean foreign policy toolbox. One would think this means North Korea is getting (much more) desparate. Perhaps for that reason, China does not "appear too upset by the launches", and is generally asking everybody involved to settle down and resume negotiations. It's difficult to discern the motivations and interests of each actor involved, but Chinese ennui may arise from the fact that, without it's missile leverage, North Korea now finds itself with fewer diplomatic and military options. This means North Korea is now much more dependent on China, both for protection and aid. Meanwhile, via Instapundit, we note Strategy Page's observation that North Korea has begun keeping the Chinese trains that bring aid supplies. That's a bold shot at the closest thing North Korea has to a benevolent protector. But halting aid supplies until they get their trains back, China is tightening its grip on North Korea. Stratfor believes the North Korean activity over the next few months will give us the best signal The question now is what happens inside Pyongyang. A failure of a major economic, political and military expenditure could quickly lead to infighting as blame is assigned and passed and next steps are debated. [...] If Pyongyang makes quick, clear steps in the coming days, it will suggest it was either well-prepared for failure or aborted the launch itself. If not, expect to see the North close in on itself, and perhaps turn to neighbor China for advice and protection.So the balance of power has shifted away from North Korea and towards China, but not necessarily in favor of the United States. Unless China becomes too demanding and the US can exploit a division and offer better terms, the center of gravity of the North Korean problem is likely to remain in China, whose interest may lay more in exploiting rather than defusing the problem. Meanwhile, Joe Cirincione at Arms Control Wonk wonders who looks more foolish: A. Kim Jong-Il for staging a July 4th fireworks display that blew up in his face;Once again, this is evidence that, though it's possible to err on the side of too much caution, a cautious, skeptical approach to foreign policy also allows us to avoid a great many unnecessary costs. |
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