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Israel: Predicting the future
Posted by: McQ on Sunday, July 16, 2006

Ken McCracken asked me to participate in their "Punidt Roundtable" at Willisms and address the following topic:

Israel is now fighting a two-front war against Hezboallah and Hamas. Tell us what outcome you would like to see, and make a bold prediction and tell us what you think will actually happen.

My discussion and predictions:

Oh, man, what I’d like to see is the destruction of the militant wings of Hamas and Hezbollah as well as the repudiation of them and their tactics by the Palestinian and Lebanese people, not to mention the international community. I’d also like to see Syria and Iran humiliated in the process.

Talk about pipe dreams.

The outcome of all of this is, however, very much in doubt. While I don’t buy the “proportional response” argument that France, the UN and others are making against Israel, I think there is a chance of Israel going too far in its response to the attacks by Hezbollah. By that I mean that the destruction of Lebanon and the collapse (or further alienation) of Lebanon’s government are not in Israel’s best interest. In fact that would strengthen the hand of just about every one of Israel’s enemies. Hezbollah, which has come under attack from within and without Lebanon (Saudi Arabia has even criticized them) stands to recover if Israel continues its offensive. And of course, Syria and Iran also stand to gain politically from an extended conflict. What Israel needs to do is clean out the south completely near its borders, smack Hezbollah around for a few days and then demand the government of Lebanon complies with the UN resolution which calls for the disarming of Hezbollah. While I don’t want to see further destruction of Lebanon for the reasons stated, the government of Lebanon must be made to realize that if they want to be treated as a sovereign nation, they are indeed responsible for what goes on within their borders. When, within 48 hours, 500 rockets are fired over their borders into another sovereign nation, it becomes pretty lame to claim “we didn’t know” or “we aren’t responsible.”

Unfortunately I don’t see this ending well unless the two soldiers kidnapped (captured?) by Hezbollah are somehow recovered fairly quickly. While PM Olmert has claimed Israel won’t stop its offensive until Hezbollah is disarmed, recovery of the soldiers would provide an acceptable excuse to stop the offensive. Hezbollah, however, is not likely to capitulate by surrendering them, and, I’m pretty sure the soldiers are being kept well away from the fighting so it is unlikely they’d be accidentally recovered. I’d also guess that both Syria and Iran are advising Hezbollah not to surrender them, understanding that the longer they can keep Israel on the offensive in Lebanon, the better it works for them, both regionally and internationally. Anger within Lebanon, and among other Arab nations, at the actions of Hezbollah will quickly change sides when it is perceived, whether reasonably or unreasonably, that Israel is doing more than it should in the name of ‘self-defense’. I’m afraid that time is nearing.

So, 2 predictions for the price of 1, both premised on the action of Israel.

Prediction 1: if Israel calls off the offensive soon, and demands that Lebanon take charge of its country and borders as well as disarming Hezbollah, and condemns Syria and Iran’s role in the Hezbollah attacks, Israel comes out on top while the stature Hezbollah, Syria and Iran are diminished.

Prediction 2: if Israel continues the offensive until perceptions change as I’ve argued might happen, then the stature of Hezbollah, Syria and Iran is enhanced within the region, and Israel’s is diminished. In that case, you’ll most likely see Lebanon’s government collapse and Syria quietly infiltrate the country again in an effort to reassert its authority there. A puppet Lebanon is very useful to both Syria and Iran.

Unfortunately, I’m a bit pessimistic about this particular dust-up, as I’m of the opinion, based on statements made by Israel’s leadership, that it may paint itself into a political corner and be unable to gracefully stop and do what is called for in prediction 1. I therefore am reluctantly drawn to conclude that prediction 2 is the most likely.
 
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Comments
Heh. It seems everybody has forgotten the reason Hamas kidnapped that Israeli Soldier in the first place. Not surprising that you would consider the death of an entire Palestinian Family on a beach irrelevent and not worth mentioning in your post.

Ofcourse, I forget that when Israel murders Palestinian Children, its an "accident". When Hamas attacks a military target, its "terrorism".

btw... those rockets Hamas and Hizbollah are firing are UNGUIDED. I am sure if they had American-made Hellfire Missiles, they would use them to pinpoint bomb Israeli Tanks instead of that Minivan Israel took out recently.
 
Written By: Aldous
URL: http://
Maybe he didn’t mention the Gaza explosion, because Israeli responsibility is a complete lie.
 
Written By: Ken McCracken
URL: http://www.willisms.com
Aldous,

An Israeli investigation concluded that the Palestinian family was not killed by an Israeli bomb, but by a leftover Palestian bomb. I have not seen any evidence to contradict this conclusion, and the behavior of the daughter and of the photographers leads me to believe that the investigation’s conclusions are correct. Do you have any good evidence otherwise?

And yes, when Israel kills children without meaning to in a military action, I do call it an "accident." (The incident you refer to seems to not be an Israeli responsibility, neither an "accident" nor "murder.") When Hamas strikes at Israeli military targets, I call it an "act of war." An when they deliberately target civilians, which they have done often, I call it "terrorism." Are you surprised that the acts of war by Hamas and Hezbollah have let to war?
 
Written By: Rory Daulton
URL: http://
btw... those rockets Hamas and Hizbollah are firing are UNGUIDED. I am sure if they had American-made Hellfire Missiles, they would use them to pinpoint bomb Israeli Tanks instead of that Minivan Israel took out recently.
The anti-ship missile Hizbollah fired at the Israeli corvette sure wasn’t unguided.
 
Written By: McQ
URL: http://www.qando.net/blog
Aldous,

It is hardly a defense to argue that firing unguided missiles at population centers is okay because you don’t have the capability to actually hit a military target.

As to the civilian casualties such as the minivan the primary blame goes to Hezbollah. They are the ones using civilian areas as bases and hiding places. They do this purposely knowing that people such as you will be angered. They want civilian deaths, and it is an effective tactic because of course people such as you will blame the IDF. Inevitably the IDF will make a mistake and tragedy will follow.

That being said, the Israeli attacks are stupid and the civilian casualties are tragic. If the IDF wishes to disarm Hezbollah this was not the way to do it. I don’t necessarily have a problem with the IDF’s conduct (or the anger of many Lebanese at the IDF, how else are they to feel?) or any disproportionate aspects, war is supposed to be disproportionate. That is how you win. It isn’t some finely calibrated machine to send just the right message. War is about achieving certain tactical and strategic aims.

Of course that is the issue I have with Israel’s response. Hamas, Hezbollah and others fighting Israel have no hope of achieving anything for their people other than more misery, but Israel does have the capacity to achieve longer term strategic objectives. If the hope is to achieve something like a peaceful border with Lebanon then the risks of this strategy outweigh the benefits. It still might work, the world can turn in funny ways, but the possibility of Lebanon collapsing is too great.

It would have made far more sense to limit the attacks at first to the south and clearly defined military targets as much as possible. Meanwhile the IDF could have demanded that immediate action be taken to enforce the UN Resolutions calling for the disarmament of Hezbollah. That would have given the IDF time to prepare for the offensive (something they are doing on the fly here) while giving the Lebanese government and the world community an opportunity to step up to the plate. It probably wouldn’t have worked, but it would have given them a chance and possibly spared most of Lebanon from what is happening now. It also might have swayed world opinion a bit more in their direction, everything helps.

Armchair generals can obviously criticize this on several grounds.

1) It would allow time for Hezbollah to retreat; especially since the IDF would be sparing much of the infrastructure they are now attacking to hinder such an escape.

So what. If the goal is to make the border secure (and from what I can tell Israel doesn’t want to occupy it itself) then fewer Hezbollah is the goal. One of the issues with McQ’s demand that the Lebanese government do it themselves, is that they can’t right now. This would make it easier whether it was done by Lebanon itself or in concert with others.

2) It would make it too easy for Hezbollah to receive supplies and reinforcements. This is a better argument, but I think it is outweighed by the gains of a more limited conflict. More importantly, if Israel is doing something besides just bombing this will be a one sided conflict on the ground. A larger concentration of Hezbollah fighters to be killed or captured, while not necessary for Israel’s aims, is hardly a bad thing in the long run.

Hopefully it will work out that way anyway, but I think the same objectives could have been accomplished with less impact on Lebanon and a greater chance of possible cooperation between Lebanon, Israel and the rest of the world. I am only talking probabilities here, but that is how I think the risks should have been measured.

Of course that is if the IDF’s goals are what I think they are, if not, then we’ll have to see whether this all makes sense.
 
Written By: Lance
URL: http://
btw... those rockets Hamas and Hizbollah are firing are UNGUIDED. I am sure if they had American-made Hellfire Missiles, they would use them to pinpoint bomb Israeli Tanks instead of that Minivan Israel took out recently
If you have unguided weapons and you have no fixed target, the general rule of thumb is - do not fire them. Firing them, wastes them amd you are stupid to do so. Being sure about those who have a track record of making some stupid decisions and some smart ones is tricky.


Preference:
I’d like Hamas and Hezbollah make the realisation that firing unguided weapons into Israel poses no threat to Israel and is stupid. I’d like to see Lebanon become a representative democracy.

Prediction:
Israel will continue the offensives in Gaza and Lebanon and then withdraw.

What Israel has seemed to have done so far is block the means of escape and reinforcement for Hezbollah by destroying bridges and roads. They may now go after the Hezbollah guerillas and the Lebanese army with impunity. Lebananon is a majority Shia state and the Shia all vote Hezbollah, a large part of the Lebanese military is Shia and likely loyal to Hezbollah - Lebanon is a legitimate target. A Lebanese government (currently elected by non-proportional sytem disfavoring Shia) will never be able to disarm Hezbollah (until they can offer the Shia a stake in government).

I predict the next phase in operations will be the clearing of land in known Shia strongholds, using mainly artillery and air power. This will be maintained for between 1 and 2 weeks, during this time the rocket attacks on Israel will decrease and troops will able to concentrate for a ground assault. The ground assault will be an incursion only, designed to encounter Hezbollah fighters after they have been softened and survey the damage - expect to last no more than 1 month. Israel will then withdraw to previous bounds. Same in Gaza.

The aim of the exercise is not to offer any solutions, it is to convince Hezbollah and Hamas that firing rockets and capturing soldiers is a bad idea. These are the neighbours of Israel, they need to be made to understand this.

I do not think there will be an attack on Syria or Iran at this time. The UN will condemn and Israel will not care - the UN is irrelevent.
 
Written By: Unaha-closp
URL: http://
Hi everyone

Oh the Jew/Arab problem. Seems to me we are as a matter of forign policy Israel Butt kissers.Let me say that history is filled with cultures claiming land that is not theirs in the name of GOD.

We sit on land that was restled from native inhabitants and in the name of our Judeo-Christian God we slaughtered the dirty nasty godless heathens.

The real problem here is two fold:

(1) you have a group of arabs that no matter what you do, no matter what you say, no matter how many bombs you drop, they wont quit believing that they are wronged by Zionist and American Christians who stole their land.

(2) God didnt give Israel to the Jews, a third of all foriegn tax dollars of the US every year and the supply of US superior firepower did.

Problem here is blantantly obvious. You have a country created by force in the middle of a region that doesnt like them or accept them.

If people cant see the pure bias (pro jew anti arab)then by God you are blind.

Why does Israel have to be? Would the world end? I think not. I heard neocons say that without Israel being in existance Jesus cant come back. How convienient.

Can anybody tell me why I should not treat both sides with the same respect or admonishment? Why do we have to say Jews-angel, arabs-devil.

Remember that the arabs have always been at war with the jews and untill we obviously sided with the israelis the arabs have the inclination to hate us too. This is not a war for the survival of free peoples it is an arguement against manifest destiny.

If you dont like the truth then visit your local indian reservation, just because you kick a peoples arse militarily doesnt make you righteous.

 
Written By: x2master
URL: http://
If Israel quits with Hezbollah still intact, Hezbollah will be considered triumphant in the Islamic world no matter how battered it is. It has to be completely removed from southern Lebanon and Israel has to occupy a strip of Lebanon until the Lebanese government, through negotiation, complies with Israel’s request.
 
Written By: Jason Pappas
URL: http://libertyandculture.blogspot.com/
On the other hand, here are some interesting thoughts about Israel’s response to the Iranian-sponsored attacks by James Lewis at American Thinker.
 
Written By: Jason Pappas
URL: http://libertyandculture.blogspot.com/
My prediction: As long as a Jew breathes, arabs, and frenchmen will continue to despise them.
 
Written By: SHARK
URL: http://
Can anybody tell me why I should not treat both sides with the same respect or admonishment? Why do we have to say Jews-angel, arabs-devil
If you want to treat a death cult who blows up schoolbusses and pizzerias the same as a democratic nation that - even in war- tries to minimize civilian casualties, that’s your flawed moral equivilancy in action. Don’t ask us to try to help you overcome it
 
Written By: SHARK
URL: http://
Oh I get it,

Israel is protecting us from Iran and syria, like our attack dogs. American thinker is one sided as well. Jews good arabs bad. Tell me something I dont already know.

We as Americans are not under attack from Iran Iraq Sria nkorea blah blah blah. I wouldnt worry Jason Pappas Im sure we will be able to vote for the next American Idol without any threat from those middle eastern countries.

Its all brain washing to me. Like when the Republicans conviced us all that they are the party to protect us from the evil terrorists even though the terrorists kicked our arse on THEIR WATCH. How bout when the WMDs didnt appear all of a sudden Genocide was the call to arms. " he killed 140 kurds" how atrocious.
Let me say I was in the Gulf war of 91, and it didnt seem to bother us then.

You dont need a beacon to see through the BS. The whole Middle east crisis sucks. If you want Israel to be the police of the middle east then say so, problem is its the land of Arabs and always will be to some, so dont cry when a couple of soldiers are kidnapped . They want to exchange two soldiers for some of the almost 10000 Arab prisoners.

The attack on lebanon is overkill. The reoccupation of Gaza will breed new freaks, Israel is just bullying with their good ole US firepower because they can. If they know so much and we know so much why hasnt the Arabs bitched up? Why is the middle east still screwed up?
Didnt have wackos blowing us up over here untill after we one sidedly supported Israel in 1948.Since then there has been over 70 UN resolutions condeming Israels actions against civilians Who vetoes every time, we do.What ever happened to higher ideals. We nation build and expect the world to want to be like us and thats not fair.

Israel was created out of religious doctrine not common sense or decency. Real peoples lives where ruined and still are. When I say people I mean both sides not just Jews. Arabs have just as much a right to fight as Israel does.History shows the Jews expanding Israel. How do you do that ? You have to push others out.Thats wrong. To all my brother Americans please ask yourself one thing..... If someone told you you have to leave your home and land because a foriegn God promised your land to them would you just say OK. Would you fight? Id kill em all baby for my fellow Americans no questions asked and screw the politics......................

 
Written By: x2master
URL: http://
Heh Shark

I think PLO was also democratic whats your point you like Jews and despise Arabs?
 
Written By: x2master
URL: http://
Oh and shark I dont see the diff when you drop bombs out of the sky on people thats terrorism at its finest. I guess you think Quassams are a match against F-16 get real wityh thy own self.
 
Written By: x2master
URL: http://
Prediction:
Nothing of good comes from this mess. For anyone. It’s not even a zero sum game. It’s a purely negative game.

Hezbollah is an idea, not an entity. You can’t kill an idea thru military means. You certainly can’t do it by killing civillians who have nothing really to do with Hezbollah. Hezbollah is waging Fourth Generation warfare. Israel’s response is somewhere between the second and the third.

In the end, the pertient question is how are American interests being affected. Israel will not cease to become a democracy regardless of what it does. So the excuse that we must let Israel do what it wants because it is a democracy is a sham. And there is no way Israel will be defeated.

Tell Israel that it must stop bombing infrastructure and humam beings that have nothing directly to do with Hezbollah or we will cease to support Israel econmically and militarily. We must maintain an arms length between ourselves and the Israeli government. Our interests overlap, but they are not the same.

Prediction, refined: Israel will continue to bomb Lebanon, Hezbollah will fight back, but the conflict will end with a whimper, eventually, after many have died.

The current Lebanese government will fall and Lebanon will fall into a low grade civil war with a weak central government. Not unlike Iraq, but not as intense. The Syrian regime will continue to limp along. Iran will be relatively unaffected by the current crisis. Israel will not invade Lebanon or Syria; it will maintain small forward operating bases in Gaza; like tiny Green Zones. It will withdraw in about 20 months.

Hamas will stay in power, wounded, but not any less powerful.

There will be no progress in the next two years when it comes to a "peace prcoess." Meanwhile, Iraq will descend further into chaos.

And gas will go to $7.00 a gallon by early 2008.

And Bush will be completely meaningless. The man is so ill-equipped to deal with the complex issues underlying the current situation that it is kind of scary to think he might get involved. He is for once doing the right thing now by staying out.



 
Written By: mkultra
URL: http://
For the record, I am not Aldous. I hope no one confuses us due to the similarity of our names.
 
Written By: Aldo
URL: http://
If someone told you you have to leave your home and land because a foriegn God promised your land to them would you just say OK. Would you fight? Id kill em all baby for my fellow Americans no questions asked and screw the politics......................
I ain’t American so how to explain?

If those someones came in flying-saucers, packing ray guns and giant tripod armoured vehicles. If they captured Delaware and declared "this is the land promised to us by our alien God, we seek no more.". If it turned out that several of these people had been your neighbours who’d in lived your town for as long as your family and Delaware for longer.
Would you fight?
Of course you would, anybody would. But how?

Would you send your sons and daughters into the cities of these invaders to attack diners at pizzerias? Would you cobble together rockets in the shed to fire blind into Delaware? Would you turn on your neighbours and blame them for the actions of their co-religionists and attack their temples? Would you do all these things knowing that you are not hurting the Delawaraellis and that these people can fly their saucers to knock out your power and roads with impunity?

You would choose to do these things only if you were unconditionally stupid.

As Americans you are much more likely to accept the loss of Delaware as a transitory affair. And spend a trillion or so dollars making the Boeing X-1 saucer and Colt Death Ray.50. Then wander on up to the Delaware border in 500 M1A1 Abrahms AT/STs and tell them to surrender.

This is smart. This stands a chance of winning.


You ask why to back the Israellis, because its better than standing with stupid.
 
Written By: Unaha-closp
URL: http://
Oh and shark I dont see the diff when you drop bombs out of the sky on people thats terrorism at its finest
*SIGH*

You’re just not worth it...
 
Written By: SHARK
URL: http://
what’s this jive about "the supply of US-made weapons" gave israel the land? amazing how everybody in the world always neglects to mention that the arabs who fought israel were supplied equally well.

by their soviet buddies, remember?

in fact, since israel is surrounded by myriad soviet-supplied arab nations, they were in fact outgunned. neat thing about the world: sometimes, shooting straight with fewer weapons will beat ’pray-n-spray’ with lots of (soviet-supplied) weaponry.

for some reason, since losing their last war vs. israel some 30 years ago,(making the billion arabs 0-for-4 in wars with the 5 million jews), the mighty islamic nations - all of them chock-full of ’warriors’ who tell us they "welcome death" - have not managed to muster up the cojones to try again.

preferring instead to fight to the last palestinian or lebanese suicide bomber.
 
Written By: jimmyquest
URL: http://
Clearly, the situation in the middle east will become more and more volitile until a major war, possibly even WWIII develops. Who really thinks that two nations which started fighting 5 or 6 thousand years ago (between two brothers) is going to end in peace any time soon?

The only question is this: is Israel worth WWIII? The US should stay out of it entirely, and let these waring nations sort it our themselves. Or don’t the Christian nations believe in their own scriptures: God always saves Israel as long as Israel is following their God’s dictates.

 
Written By: M.C.Malkemus
URL: http://
Heh Jimmy
yeah I see that the Arabs are just as equipped militarily, What in the heck are you people smoking?
Hey Guantou do you have peace through your 0 for 5 wars?
When you kill people that are not warriors you are a coward.
Just the same when a suicide bomber kills 5-50 people in a pizzaria I do think it is cowardice.
I also think when an Israeli kills innocents and says "sorry’ I cant buy it. that wouyld mean I have to place more concern for Israeli human life than arab human life and that makes me Un-AMERICAN

REGARDLESS WHAT MY GOV DOES AMERICA SHOULD ALWAYS STRIVE FOR EQUALLITY NOT SELLF INTEREST IF IT VIOLATES WHO WE ARE. iF WE DONT STICK UP FOR THE PEOPLE WHO CANT THEN WE ARE NOT LEADERS WE ARE EMPIRIALISTS NATION BUILDERS.

If a people can not stand militarily against a superior fighting force they will get desperate.Wouldnt you?Terrorism works unfortunately. Let me make my point clear I think killing people is very wrong in any method.

Please remember one thing though, Arabs are not trying to take over the world, they cant. They are trying to take back their land that was taken my US fire power because without it Israel would be only a mention in the Bible.

Hey Israel just wiped out an entire Canadian family of 7. I guess they are real SORRY though. Stop bombing civilian infrastructure it is inhumane.

Hezbollah should be dismantled but everyone here on this blog knows that the fledgling Leb. Gov cant. Who can. Its an ideaology of extremism born out of the occupation of lebanon by Israel.

You know people we all can take sides but untill we are all serious in this world to come to the table with a new plan because the status qou stinks of dead innocents on all sides.

How to quell a 2000 year old hissy fit. Got me?
I wont trade in my beliefs of what is right or wrong for anyone. Israel has a kill ratio of 4 to 1. I guess intelligently I* would say the Jews are winning, wouldnt you?
Problem is wehat good is a state in the middle of a place that hates you?So If Im pro jew than I would say attack everyone in the region. Lebanese, Iranian, syrian, jordanian, egyptian blah blah blah. If Im pro Arab I say do not recognize Israel and attack it anyway you can.

Doesnt anyone see that this will not work?
I want to say that all my life I have been pro Israel. Ive been taught that jews good arabs bad since I was 4. My parents teachers and even my paster have alweays said Jews are the victims always.I guess we all have the idea of the German/ jew holocuast.

There have been many holocausts people. One right here on American soil. Just as many American Indians were slaughtered as Germans killed Jews, but that doesnt give a people free moral reign or the mandate for their own country on someone elses land.
If it did we would all have to make reperations to Indians and Black people.

remember right is right and wrong is wrong no matter what. Its been nice people but IM going back to Iraq and I have to return to base.

I want you all to remember something that I know alot about, When babies are born they dont cry in different languages or cultures, they are taught.
In the same breath when I have to kill the enemy in Iraq the people dont cry in different languages either. I know that they are insurgents wanting me out of their land, not terrorists. Sometimes I look across the sand and smoke and the smell of sickly sweet burning flesh and say Im going to hell, all of us are on both sides for violating the first rule, love one another as I have loved you.............................






 
Written By: x2master
URL: http://
Without endorsing his conclusions, I think MKUltra makes a good point here:
Hezbollah is an idea, not an entity. You can’t kill an idea thru military means. You certainly can’t do it by killing civillians who have nothing really to do with Hezbollah. Hezbollah is waging Fourth Generation warfare. Israel’s response is somewhere between the second and the third.
It’s assymetric warfare, and a conventional military response will not — cannot — achieve security for Israel. In this kind of warfare, social and institutional change is the only possible solution. Military response is inadequate and — he’s right — we need to seriously question precisely where US interests lie.
 
Written By: Jon Henke
URL: http://www.QandO.net
The feedback loop between Israel and the US has become corrupted by the neoconservatives. Between being an election year, the neocons, the evangelicals and the pro-Israeli lobby, the US can’t do or say anything to Israel.

On the other hand, the above special interest groups want the US to destroy Syria and Iran. So my prediction is that there will be some counterfeit "atrocities" implicating Syria and/or Iran. Think of them as being this year’s "yellowcake forgeries."

I think that the bush administration will take this opportunity to attack Iran, since there is no way that they can get any UN Security Council resolution authorizing attacking Iran past the Chinese and Russian vetos.

Hezbullah got 45% of the votes in the last election. There’s no way that they are going to "go away" in anyway short of murdering a significant part of the Lebanese population.

A pessimistic outcome from all this will be a repeat of the 1973 oil embargo, which was a direct result of the Yom Kippur war. If I were an oil exporting country, I’d be making contingency plans for such an event. Like maybe stockpiling cement to pump down the oil wells, and explosives to eliminate the pumping stations. Because I think the bush administration will be invading any oil producer that doesn’t drop their pants and bend over.
 
Written By: Peter
URL: http://www.google.com
Here’s what Peter wrote:

So my prediction is that there will be some counterfeit "atrocities" implicating Syria and/or Iran. Think of them as being this year’s "yellowcake forgeries."
So sailing unguided munitions at civilian targets isn’t already an atrocity to you?

Well we know where your priorities lie.

Yours, TPD, ml, msl, & pfpp
 
Written By: Tom Perkins
URL: http://
Hey Tom are you talking about the 1000 the hezbollah launched or the 10000 the Israelis have launched ?
 
Written By: x2master
URL: http://
x2master,

I’m sure you know I think you’re a fool.

You aren’t wrong.

The "1000" the Hezbullah have launched cannot be aimed at military targets, and there is no evidence so far the "10000" the Israelis have attempted to kill civilians for the purpose of doing no more than that—there are full and sufficient military reasons for her to have struck the targets she so far has.

I’m sure that will make no difference to you.

But then you are a fool.

Yours, TDP, ml, msl, & pfpp
 
Written By: Tom Perkins
URL: http://
But they do kill civilian ahole
 
Written By: x2master
URL: http://
Oh and of course no Israeli action is unfounded. Every arab action is evil huh?

Lets see 170 dead civilians so far vs 24.

In the end this will not bring peace but more war that you fool will not have to fight.This makes it harder for us in the arab world to win hearts and minds but obviously your philosophy is not foolish, support Israel no matter what, some policy.

You neocons have been singing the same song and dance since 1948, and what do you have to show for it?

Folly
 
Written By: x2master
URL: http://
Lets see suburbs, power stations,civilian infrastructure. Yeah some military targets. Go talk crap to someone whos not military. I am. The howies they are shooting are not as accurate as you want to believe.

How do I know. Ive been using laser guided telemetry weapons my whole career.

Last I remember the Hezbollah kidnapped military soldiers. We all know the risks. Israel is taking out the whole of Lebanon and a whole bunch of people that have nothing to do with this militant wing.

Israel is violating international law for using collective force against the civilian populus.The international community voted 10-1. Only we vetoed like always. See now when we need collective support China or Russia will return the favor. So basically the UN is a paper tiger.

End line Israel can do whatever it wants untill another super power besided us says cut the crap.
 
Written By: x2master
URL: http://
"But they do kill civilian ahole"
Not for the purpose of killing civilians, ahole.
"Oh and of course no Israeli action is unfounded. Every arab action is evil huh?"
I neither wrote, believe, nor have ever claimed that that. Having an unassailable point made aganist your idiocy, its time for you to build your strawman, I guess.
"Lets see 170 dead civilians so far vs 24."
Yeah, like the Jenin "massacre".
"In the end this will not bring peace but more war that you fool will not have to fight.This makes it harder for us in the arab world to win hearts and minds but obviously your philosophy is not foolish, support Israel no matter what, some policy."
I am not concerned with winning Hezbullah’s hearts or minds. I am not concerned with winning the hearts or minds of the Lebaense who tolerated Hezbullah in their midst. I am not concerned with winning the hearts or minds of the Syrians and Iranians who think Hezbullah is worthy of their support. If the Israelis can send them to hell, that’s a good thing.
"You neocons have been singing the same song and dance since 1948, and what do you have to show for it?"
a) I am not a neocon, the thought is laughable.

b) Neocons could only have existed as early as the late 1970’s, as statist minded leftists began to be embarrassed by leftism’s failures. That you think they could have been around since 1948 shows how pig ignorant you are.

Lets see suburbs, power stations,civilian infrastructure. Yeah some military targets. Go talk crap to someone whos not military. I am.
Dual use facilities are perfectly legal targets.
The howies they are shooting are not as accurate as you want to believe.
They are inherently far more accurate than the rockets Hezbullah uses and are NOT aimed in such a way as to maximize civilian casualties.
How do I know. Ive been using laser guided telemetry weapons my whole career.
You lucky boy, do you want a pat on the head?
Last I remember the Hezbollah kidnapped military soldiers. We all know the risks. Israel is taking out the whole of Lebanon and a whole bunch of people that have nothing to do with this militant wing.
That the opponent will not also follow the rules of war is not a risk with which Israel nor any other country needs to put up. Israel is not taking out the whole of Lebanon, Israel is taking out the portions if Lebanon which Hezbullah controls which have dual use (and also military single use facilities like the Hezbullah rocket bunkers).
Israel is violating international law for using collective force against the civilian populus.The international community voted 10-1. Only we vetoed like always. See now when we need collective support China or Russia will return the favor. So basically the UN is a paper tiger.
The civilian populus should have kicked Hezbullah out if they did not want to be in close proximity to Hezbullah getting its ass kicked when the Izzies had enough of them. Which reminds me...

...where’s your condemnation of Hezbullah for using "civlian" infrastrutuce and making those faclities legal targets? Where is those 10 nations doing the same. Or do you claim that only the Israelis have to follow your version of the rules of war? Your and their plaints have no ethical weight.
End line Israel can do whatever it wants until another super power besided us says cut the crap.
If they keep up like they have been, yes. And what other "superpowers"?

Yours, TDP, ml, msl, & pfpp
 
Written By: Tom Perkins
URL: http://
yeah keep up like this and Israel and the USA will be alone.

Now Britian and japan have now joined against us and want UN troops in Lebanaon.

I guess when they (arabs) play hump hump with your oil Our friends show their stripes.

I do condemn terrorism. I also believe that the Israelis and the Us can not operate like we are the only ones in the world.

Bottom line we are and have been following a policy that has failed because of an undying and un killable force(s) that will never recognise Israel because most arabs do not understand why we and the europeans set Israel on their land.

Europe after all started this crap in a way because after the holocaust Euros and Americans didint want them on their land but put them in a place surrounded by radical Islamists.

Hizbollah was formed by the same action in the same country the Israelis are attacking.They are like the other orgs a bunch of radicals that want Israel in the sea. Isreal acknowledges they can not destroy the arabs militarily withpout becoming what they hate. It would require another holocaust, the very thing the Jews play everytime in their deck of cards against anti semitism. Countries like Russia and China will never sit by. Contrary to what you may believe these two countries are formiddable. China has the fastest appetite for oil than anyone in the world.

Im just saying that I believe that the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again expecting the same result.

I would also draw the conclusion that Israel is making more enemies and creating more suicide bombers and that very real class of wackos.

I would like to also point out that none of us Americans would give a crap about the middle east if it werent for natural resources. (oil) Thats our fault we have had the tech to eradicate the internal comnbustion engine for decades.
I know on the inside when I first went into Iraq our initiative was to secure the oil wells so the Mendi militia wouldnt set them on fire. Kill anyone in your way.
" thats so gas back home wont hit $7.00 a gallon." says my co. "this is the real threat to America" Im not at all Pro arab or pro Jew. Im neutral.Used to belive in the polly anna rhetoric that everyone wants democracy. We should rephrase that we want democracies we AGREE WITH AND BEND TO OUR WILL.If it were any other democracy being attacked the US would be raising hell.

I also would like to apologise for getting hot under the collar. For calling you republican and Ahole.Everyone has their right to express what they fell without being treated with disrespect. Take care Tom.
 
Written By: x2master
URL: http://
Sorry it was doing the same thing over and over again expecting a DIFGFERENT result= INSANITY
 
Written By: x2master
URL: http://
"Now Britian and japan have now joined against us and want UN troops in Lebanaon."
I guess you didn’t notice that having UN troops on the ground was always fine by us—as long as they are there to shoot to prevent Hezbullah from firing rockets. If that is what Britain means, then that is just fine. I suspect that IS what Blair intends.
"I guess when they (arabs) play hump hump with your oil Our friends show their stripes."
What, you seem to expect them to slit their owns throats!
"I do condemn terrorism."
Not effectively. That takes putting steel on target.
"I also believe that the Israelis and the Us can not operate like we are the only ones in the world."
One should do what one can and must.
"Bottom line we are and have been following a policy that has failed because of an undying and un killable force(s) that will never recognise Israel because most arabs do not understand why we and the europeans set Israel on their land."
Funny. I think a whole lot of them have been killed. In fact, I think a whole lot more of the Hezbullah forces have died than Israeli forces. This is a trend that can’t continue—or Hezbullah will run out of itself. Not that there’s anything wrong with that.

"Europe after all started this cr@p in a way because after the holocaust Euros and Americans didint want them on their land but put them in a place surrounded by radical Islamists."
Actually, they (Zio nist terrorists) were killing Europeans (Britains) in order to get into Palestine. Your ignorance of history is remarkable in contrast to the uninformed vehemence of your opinions.
"Hizbollah was formed by the same action in the same country the Israelis are attacking.They are like the other orgs a bunch of radicals that want Israel in the sea. Isreal acknowledges they can not destroy the arabs militarily withpout becoming what they hate. It would require another holocaust, the very thing the Jews play everytime in their deck of cards against anti semitism. Countries like Russia and China will never sit by. Contrary to what you may believe these two countries are formiddable. China has the fastest appetite for oil than anyone in the world."
Israel does not need to kill all the Palestinians to protect itself, it only needs to retreat to the boundaries of ’67 to place itself in a morally unassailable position, and then launch what raids are required to disrupt its offensive neighbors. The Arabic countries, being populated by human beings, need to have their midievalist viziers thrown down and the socioeconomic structures of modernity given teeth.

Then they will not care to displace Israel.

Or at least that’s the theory. It’s better for current circumstances than any other theory operated by to date.

Personally I think the creation of the modern state of Israel was a huge strategic mistake for the Zio nist cause, and that it is virtually inevitable that it perish while her children scream. But I can’t fault them for trying to remain alive in as moral a way as current circumstances permit.

You however, have no understanding that I can see of her circumstances and you do fault her for doing what needs to be done.

China has about as much ability to project power to the region as we can overwatch Iraq from Okinawa, and Russia has more than enough oil, gas, and I believe also coal to have no dog in this fight on petroleum based geostrategic grounds.

That you think otherwise shows you to be more the fool.
"Im just saying that I believe that the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again expecting the same result."
Actually they aren’t doing the same thing over and over again, this time they are doing something different—not keeping the territory from which they’ve ejected the Arabs who were trying to kill them. This is a crucial difference. If followed to its logical end point of the borders of 1967, it will be as successful as any strategy on their part can be.

"I would also draw the conclusion that Israel is making more enemies and creating more suicide bombers and that very real class of wackos."
And when there are enough of them that they sail unguided rockets at Israeli civilian targets, the creation of more suicide bombers in superfluous.

"I would like to also point out that none of us Americans would give a crap about the middle east if it werent for natural resources. (oil)"
Yeah, that petroleum is pretty unimportant stuff.

"Thats our fault we have had the tech to eradicate the internal comnbustion engine for decades."
Your engineering fu is weaker than your history fu. Truly you are a monument to the willful ignorance of historical and physical reality. Nothing comes close to hydrocarbon fueled internal combustion engines in converting $ to mechanical horsepower. It also has by far the best on tap stored horsepower to dollars and best carried mass to horsepower ratios on a per $ basis.

I just cannot understate how uninformed you are.
"I know on the inside when I first went into Iraq our initiative was to secure the oil wells so the Mendi militia wouldnt set them on fire. Kill anyone in your way."
Glad someone had their priorities relatively straight. Of course, the ROE you were under were also quite specific and restrictive WRT to civilians casualties, so what you are trying to imply is not true.
" thats so gas back home wont hit $7.00 a gallon." says my co. "this is the real threat to America"
Like it’s NOT a threat to America?
"Im not at all Pro arab or pro Jew. Im neutral.Used to belive in the polly anna rhetoric that everyone wants democracy. We should rephrase that we want democracies we AGREE WITH AND BEND TO OUR WILL.If it were any other democracy being attacked the US would be raising hell."
If by "AGREE WITH AND BEND TO OUR WILL" you mean not tolerating other regimes any more than we have to when they treat their own people like sh!t, and not tolerating regimes at all that encourage people and provide material support to commit acts of terrorism against us, then yes, we want them to agree with and bend to our will. If you think we are trying to set the price of Iraq’s oil, buddy, you need to pony up with the proof.
"I also would like to apologise for getting hot under the collar. For calling you republican and Ahole.Everyone has their right to express what they fell without being treated with disrespect. Take care Tom."
No need to apologize. I’ve called you a fool and I really, genuinely mean that. You didn’t call me a republican that I can recall, you called me a neocon, which was always just silly. And no, neither you nor I have the right to express our feeling without being disrespected for it—in almost every case—we have the right to express our opinions without politically motivated repercussions by government action or by violence by others.

Do take care.

Yours, TDP, ml, msl, & pfpp
 
Written By: Tom Perkins
URL: http://
"But they do kill civilian ahole"
Not for the purpose of killing civilians, ahole.
"Oh and of course no Israeli action is unfounded. Every arab action is evil huh?"
I neither wrote, believe, nor have ever claimed that that. Having an unassailable point made aganist your idiocy, its time for you to build your strawman, I guess.
"Lets see 170 dead civilians so far vs 24."
Yeah, like the Jenin "massacre".
"In the end this will not bring peace but more war that you fool will not have to fight.This makes it harder for us in the arab world to win hearts and minds but obviously your philosophy is not foolish, support Israel no matter what, some policy."
I am not concerned with winning Hezbullah’s hearts or minds. I am not concerned with winning the hearts or minds of the Lebaense who tolerated Hezbullah in their midst. I am not concerned with winning the hearts or minds of the Syrians and Iranians who think Hezbullah is worthy of their support. If the Israelis can send them to hell, that’s a good thing.
"You neocons have been singing the same song and dance since 1948, and what do you have to show for it?"
a) I am not a neocon, the thought is laughable.

b) Neocons could only have existed as early as the late 1970’s, as statist minded leftists began to be embarrassed by leftism’s failures. That you think they could have been around since 1948 shows how pig ignorant you are.

Lets see suburbs, power stations,civilian infrastructure. Yeah some military targets. Go talk crap to someone whos not military. I am.
Dual use facilities are perfectly legal targets.
The howies they are shooting are not as accurate as you want to believe.
They are inherently far more accurate than the rockets Hezbullah uses and are NOT aimed in such a way as to maximize civilian casualties.
How do I know. Ive been using laser guided telemetry weapons my whole career.
You lucky boy, do you want a pat on the head?
Last I remember the Hezbollah kidnapped military soldiers. We all know the risks. Israel is taking out the whole of Lebanon and a whole bunch of people that have nothing to do with this militant wing.
That the opponent will not also follow the rules of war is not a risk with which Israel nor any other country needs to put up. Israel is not taking out the whole of Lebanon, Israel is taking out the portions if Lebanon which Hezbullah controls which have dual use (and also military single use facilities like the Hezbullah rocket bunkers).
Israel is violating international law for using collective force against the civilian populus.The international community voted 10-1. Only we vetoed like always. See now when we need collective support China or Russia will return the favor. So basically the UN is a paper tiger.
The civilian populus should have kicked Hezbullah out if they did not want to be in close proximity to Hezbullah getting its ass kicked when the Izzies had enough of them. Which reminds me...

...where’s your condemnation of Hezbullah for using "civlian" infrastrutuce and making those faclities legal targets? Where is those 10 nations doing the same. Or do you claim that only the Israelis have to follow your version of the rules of war? Your and their plaints have no ethical weight.
End line Israel can do whatever it wants until another super power besided us says cut the crap.
If they keep up like they have been, yes. And what other "superpowers"?

Yours, TDP, ml, msl, & pfpp
 
Written By: Tom Perkins
URL: http://

 
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