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Israel: The winds of war begin to change
Posted by: McQ on Tuesday, July 25, 2006

This is what I've been anticipating happening from the beginning:
The Saudi foreign minister personally urged President Bush yesterday to intervene to stop the violence in Lebanon, the most direct sign of mounting frustration among key Arab states with what they see as a hands-off U.S. posture toward Israeli strikes against Hezbollah.

[...]

Although the Saudis had initially criticized Hezbollah's actions in triggering the new violence, diplomats say the kingdom's leaders have become increasingly distressed about the growing humanitarian crisis in Lebanon. Israeli airstrikes have produced numerous civilian casualties and vast devastation.
The longer the Israelis remain in Lebanon (and the longer they put off the inevitable ground action necessary to really root Hezbollah out of southern Lebanon), the more of this we're going to hear. And, of course, as the article mentions, it is going to complicate Condi Rice's attempt at establishing negotiations to end the fighting and bring about a meaningful ceasefire.

In the meantime, Israel hit one of the centers of Hezbollah's southern Lebanon presence:
A battle raged as Israel besieged Bint Jbail, the largest town near the Israel-Lebanon border. Two Israeli soldiers were killed and at least 20 were wounded in the battle.

According to Maj. Gen. Gadi Eizenkot, chief of operations for the Israeli Defense Force, up to 200 Hezbollah fighters were in fortified positions inside the town.

Bint Jbail has a strong link to Hezbollah. In 2000, after Israeli troops ended their occupation, Hezbollah leader Sheik Hassan Nasrallah went to Bint Jbail for a celebration rally.

Dozens of Hezbollah guerrillas were reportedly wounded in the fighting.
This is a limited action, not the anticipated ground invasion. It's almost as if Israel is working itself up to that with ground attacks which seem a little bigger each time. And, since I haven't studied the terrain, this may be an attack which is a necessary prelude to a larger ground attack. But whatever it is, they better get along with it if they hope avoid much of the international condemnation that is starting to build. They need to get it over with before they're forced into a cease fire:
The global community is hoping that U.S. Secretary of State Condolezza Rice will be able to avert a major ground invasion by Israel. But it depends what comes of the talks in the Mideast, said retired U.S. Army Lt. Col. Tom Christianson.

"I think it's very, very clear that the Israelis want to move the Hezbollah guerrillas back to a range which would exclude them from launching missiles into Israel," said Christianson.

"If (the Rice) visit bears no fruit, I would expect a major invasion to establish a buffer zone within days."
Christianson has a point. Israel most likely will hold off until Rice leaves the area with no agreement instead of embarrassing her in the middle of her trip. So I'd agree, watch the Rice trip as the key to when a ground invasion is in the offing. Frankly I don't expect much success from the trip.

And Hezbollah keeps being Hezbollah:
The Hezbollah representative in Iran, Hossein Safiadeen, said Monday that the group plans to widen its attacks on Israel.

"We are going to make Israel not safe for Israelis. There will be no place they are safe," Safiadeen told a conference.

"You will see a new Middle East in the way of Hezbollah and Islam, not in the way of Rice and Israel."
This one is going to get a lot bigger before it burns itself out.
 
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This one needs to get a lot bigger before it burns, so that Hizbullah is pushed back and their capability degraded.

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3281110,00.html
In special assembly Vice Premier says: ’In war you need to win – and we also know that you need to end it by negotiating.’ Adds that Israel will extend hand to Palestinians ’when they let go of terror, Hamas violence’

Vice Premier Shimon Peres said Tuesday in a special Knesset assembly that "We are ready to negotiate with the legal government of Lebanon, when they wrest themselves from Hizbullah’s control, and with the Palestinians, when they wrest themselves from the terror of Hamas violence."

During his speech, Peres referred to the objectives of the war in the north, deployment of an international force in the region, and the possibility of negotiation as a solution to the crisis. At the beginning of his speech he said, "Israel is not fighting because it has targets in Lebanon. Israel is fighting because it was attacked, making the objective of the war to push back the attacks and to eradicate whoever wants to hurt us. Victory against Hizbullah will be declared when their ability to hurt us is diminished."
 
Written By: Keith, Indy
URL: http://
If the Saudis are so concerned, why aren’t they arranging for an Arab League military force to intervene in Lebanon? Why should they automatically expect the U.S. to step in (apart from 90 years’ history of our doing so)? This is a regional matter with no U.S. interests directly threatened. Let those in the region handle it.
 
Written By: ondigo
URL: http://
If the Saudis are so concerned, why aren’t they arranging for an Arab League military force to intervene in Lebanon? Why should they automatically expect the U.S. to step in (apart from 90 years’ history of our doing so)? This is a regional matter with no U.S. interests directly threatened. Let those in the region handle it.
1) Good idea, most folks would call that an Arab MILITARY intervention. A.K.A. a generalized war in the Middle East. And when oil hits $100-150 per barrel get back to me on how the US would be better served by NOT becoming involved, you nad the Cato Institute, Pat Buchanan, and John Derbyshire.

2) The Arab League and IF the Israelis express "concern" over that particular regional actor? You and the Cato Institute need to grow up and realize that not all regional actors are acceptable to all other actors. Israel is not loved by the League and vice versa, any plan that involves those two interacting profitibly is a pipe dream.
 
Written By: Joe
URL: http://
It’s not looking good at all.

CNN last night had interviews with Israeli soldiers clearly startled by the fierceness of Hizballah resistance, followed by reports of Israeli use of white phosphorous. Go to the BBC’s homepage and it’s dominated by articles charging Israeli use of cluster bombs "in civilian areas" and a big article featuring the Saudi statements and another concerning Syria’s growing vocalness.

And of course Hizballah wins simply by surviving. I’m beginning to wonder if the Israelis have the legs for this one. If they don’t, we’re going to wind up with emboldened Islamist aggressors, not deminished ones.

yours/
peter.
 
Written By: Peter Jackson
URL: http://www.liberalcapitalist.com
Past experience suggests that it’s generally unwise to underestimate Israel’s military capabilities. Maybe we’ve just been spoiled by their previous lightning-fast devastation of their enemies. The MSM is all but screaming ’quagmire’ because, three days into the ground campaign, the IDF isn’t marching through the suburbs of Beirut. This isn’t to say that time isn’t a factor — eventually politics will interfere — but we’re nowhere near that point yet.
 
Written By: Achillea
URL: http://
I seriously doubt that Israel cares in the least that the world condemns them. They certainly do not care what Saudi Arabia thinks about them, nor do they care what McQ or LASunsett thinks.

If they do not at very least cripple Hezbollah at this juncture, there will be no lasting meaningful peace. Not when Hezbollah and Hamas have the annihilation of Israel in their respective charters. Israel has done everything they could to appease the appeasers, they have withdrawn from Lebanon and Gaza without condition and even removed some of their citizens by force to do it. They got rewarded with rockets and now this.

No sir. I do not expect Israel to fall for the lasting and meaningful peace line, this time.

 
Written By: LASunsett
URL: http://poli-yy.blogspot.com
I’ve vome to think that the IDF is being WAY over-rated here. It CAN bull it’s way thru to some form of victory. But right now it’s not, seemingly, where it was in previous conflicts. It’s slow, ponderous and relying on massive firepower. In short it’s behaving like a third World military. The Intifada has taken it out of Tzahal. You get used to sitting on your ^rse and letting the AH-64’s do the work, and if you don’t train for fighting in a conventional setting, you get a slow advance. Yeah I’m a "Chickenhawk" but Israelis forces moved MUCH faster in 1982...And note that war is a GENERATION ago, so most of the IDF has NEVER moved in large numbers or fought large-scale actions. It might be interesting to see who actually assaulted Jenin, now, REGULAR forces or Reservists. The Regulars may be the ones with the skills, and the Reserves just the "warm bodies" standing around.
 
Written By: Joe
URL: http://
And, the Israelis had the goal of occupation then. And got stuck their for 18 years.

So they are taking a different approach this time. And, one assumes, their goal is not occupation, or even driving in as far as Beruit.

I wouldn’t want to be making guess at what their strategic plans on while looking through the soda straw of information we are getting.
 
Written By: Keith, Indy
URL: http://
Well Keith even if their goal is not occupation, and it wasn’t in 1982 either, they aree moving awfully slowly. UNLESS they can operate at depth in the Hezbollah rear and/or dislocate Hezbollah’s front they’re simply shoving thru Hezbollah. That’s a good way to lose troops. The Soviets understood as did the Israelis in 1967 that an attack outrance, at the outset yields larger initial casualties, but LOWER overall casualties, because you disrupt your opponents, fronts, forces, and plans. Your losses fall and the loss rate swings in your favour when the enemy is running or playing your game.
 
Written By: Joe
URL: http://
A usefull synopsis of the events of 1982...

6/6/82 was when they crossed the border, 8/3 was when the PLO evacuated from Beruit. It looks like by mid-June the Israeli forces had surrounded Beruit.

Sound familiar...
The President of the Security Council, Ide Oumarou of Niger, expressed "deep concern at the extent of the loss of life and the scale of the destruction caused by the deplorable events that have been taking place for several days in Lebanon."
*********

link
Israel will carve out a "security zone" in south Lebanon until an international force is deployed there or Hezbollah and its rocket launchers are pushed back from the Israeli border, Israel’s defense minister said Tuesday.

Israel maintained such a zone during its 18-year military occupation of Lebanon, and Defense Minister Amir Peretz became the first Israeli leader to raise the idea of restoring a no-go area. He did not say whether Israeli troops would patrol south Lebanon or keep guerrillas out with airstrikes and artillery fire
 
Written By: Keith, Indy
URL: http://
There’s more truth in these pictures than in all the posts in this Blog put together.


http://derenegade.blogspot.com/
 
Written By: Tony
URL: http://
Tony what do those photos show, other than that Fark.com has better caption contests?
 
Written By: Joe
URL: http://
LASunsett -
I seriously doubt that Israel cares in the least that the world condemns them. They certainly do not care what Saudi Arabia thinks about them, nor do they care what McQ or LASunsett thinks.
Oil Embargo.

If KSA gets tired of Israel creating problems, falls under great pressure from it’s people or other nations, they may be forced to abandon their ordinarily very responsible stewardship of the global petroleum market, and trigger OPEC measures. The last time, 1973, America still was 70% energy independent and we took tremendous economic pain in accepting the Embargo falling against us as well. Nixon also had foreign nations that worked with us as friends - though not Israel lovers themselves - to save Israel from being strangled to death and flushed down the toilet. Now the US makes only 27% of it’s oil. Has few if any friends that would support us.

I think Israel would certainly care.

Lessons from Israel-Hezbollah Clash:

1. Israel’s high tech margin and man to man superiority of its forces over it’s enemies soldiers has eroded considerably.

2. Lefties who believe in a James Bondish - get the head evildoer mastermind and the now-brainless organisation collapses need to get a new meme. Sheikh Nasrallah is only in charge of Hezbollah because past "head evil masterminds" were assassinated by Israel. Getting Saddam made no difference in the Sunni Insurgency. And the Lefty and liberal Democrat notion that the whole "War on Terror" victory rests on "getting bin Laden" and giving him full rights and 100 ACLU lawyers for his Great Trial...is utter nonsense.

3. The Neocons similarly crappy exhortation that a single "high tech, surgical air strike" on Iran will end it’s nuclear and missile threat is also brain-damaged nonsense. 3400 "high tech, surgical air strikes" on Iran’s proxy irregulars in Hezbollah, several thousand "precision artillery rounds’, and "IDF high tech special ops wonderwarrior raids" have not really dented Hezbollahs missile capacity or combat capacity yet.

4. The Bushie refusal to talk to any strategic threat "because it only rewards them" leaves us with little diplomatic clout aside from our threats of military action...and even that is considered a weak threat now by Syria, Egypt, Iran, KSA, Turkey, NATO, China, and Russia because we are really bogged down in Iraq. Those with the oil, have the Bushies over a barrel.

5. Israelis and Jews in America who support Israel can celebrate the clout they have over the US Congress who the Lobby just trotted out with near-unanimous declarations of love, adulation and support for whatever Israel wants. But they also have to begin a dialogue and clean their own house with secular liberal Jews who have done more than any other group to demand "enemy rights", use Jewish dominated groups like the ACLU to defend unlawful Muslim terrorists caught, and sabotage US efforts at counterterror programs through Jewish-owned media like the Wash Post, NYTimes and Jewish reporters like Reisen, Lichtbau. If Israel and the Jewish community as a whole wants American support, they cannot continue to permit liberal secular Jews to undermine America’s own efforts to protect itself, and target for political destruction any conservative or moderate politician and religious Jew like Lieberman.
 
Written By: C. Ford
URL: http://
Israel: The winds of war begin to change
They sure do. Now Israel is killing UN observers.

First, Israel takes out Lebanese television transmission equipment because they don’t want the bad press. Now, they are taking out UN observers because they apparently don’t want to be ... observed.

Kind of reminds me of a Bush campaign rally.

Oh, not that it matters, but your tax dollars assisted in taking out the UN observers.

Have a nice day.
 
Written By: mkultra
URL: http://
And the winds are blowing north, up the Levant.

From Newsweek:
July 31, 2006 issue - Israel launched airstrikes on Lebanon in response to attacks by Hizbullah earlier this month, and George W. Bush called it "self-defense." But what to tell the Turks, who over the last week lost 15 sol-diers to terror attacks launched by sepa-ratist Kurds from neighboring Iraq? Many Turkish leaders are pressing for cross-border tactical air assaults on the guerrillas. But Bush, fearing yet another escalation of the Middle East’s violence, urged Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to hold off. "The message was, unilateral action isn’t going to be helpful," says a senior U.S. official, describing the 15-minute phone conversation. "The president asked for patience."

And so Turkish forces are holding fast—for now—in deference to their half-century alliance with the United States. But that patience is bound to be challenged, probably sooner than later. Domestic political pressures are building to take a leaf from Israel’s book and hit back at the guerrillas of the Kurdistan Work-ers’ Party, or PKK. Since the beginning of the year, attacks on Turkish military garrisons and police stations have esca-lated across the country’s southeast, along with random shootings, bombings and protests—many of them, authorities suspect, organized in Iraq. Already the Turkish military has laid detailed plans for possible helicopter-and-commando assaults, government sources tell NEWSWEEK. Meanwhile, Ankara’s frustration with Washington has grown palpable. For all the Bush administration’s repeated promises to crack down on the PKK, little if anything has happened. With elections coming next year, Erdogan could be pardoned for soon concluding that his forbearance might prove politically dangerous. "Moderate, liberal people in Turkey are becoming increasingly anti-American," warns Turkey’s Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul. "That isn’t good."
It just gets worse every day. So do the Turks get to invade Iraq? Funny, but the silence on the right is very loud. The hypocrisy worse. So what explains the difference between Turkey and Israel? They are both democracies. Both allies. Hmmm. What could it be?





 
Written By: mkultra
URL: http://

 
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