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Cynthia McKinney: "Political death" watch
Posted by: McQ on Friday, July 28, 2006

Cynthia McKinney is in trouble in the 4th Congressional District of GA. Seems her opponent, who she describes as a "mostly unknown and unproven opponent, who will nonetheless have the unanimous backing of big national media and national money," has her trailing by over 20 points in the latest poll conducted in the district. McKinney's opponent is a gentleman named Hank Johnson. And while McKinney may think of him as an unknown, he's certainly not unknown to the voters of the 4th District. Johnson is a DeKalb County Commissioner and most of the 4th is in DeKalb County.

So while it may sound good to McKinney and her supporters, it is a bit of "whistling past the graveyard" to claim Johnson is unworthy because he is "unknown and unproven".

PeachBuzz gives us the down and dirty from an Insider Advantage Poll:
(7/27/06) An InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Survey conducted July 25-26, 2006, shows incumbent U.S. Rep. Cynthia McKinney (D-4) trailing her runoff opponent, DeKalb County Commissioner Hank Johnson, by a wide margin. The survey of almost 500 registered voters in Georgia’s 4th Congressional District shows the following:

Q: In the August 8, 2006, primary runoff between Cynthia McKinney and Hank Johnson, would you vote for Cynthia McKinney or Hank Johnson?

Cynthia McKinney – 21 percent
Hank Johnson – 46 percent
Don’t Know/Undecided – 33 percent

The survey of 480 likely voters was weighted for political affiliation (Georgia has an open primary system), eligibility to vote in the primary, age, race and gender. The margin of error is plus/minus 5 percent.
Even with the margin of error given to McKinney (and you probably should do that since IA gave a 10 point advantage to Ralph Reed going into primary day), she trails badly. So badly that unlike previous campaigns she as agreed to two debates against Hank Johnson. Folks, just for the entertainment value, I believe I may have to watch those.

Another thing to note about Georgia is anyone can vote in any primary. So seeing as a Republican hasn't the chance of the proverbial snowball in Hades in this race, it is entirely possible, nay probable, that Republicans in the district will go to the polls on August 8th just to assure McKinney's defeat.

McKinney has her excuses all lined up:
The media and money behind my opponent will do their utmost to polarize the election along racial and party lines.
But as usual I'm not sure what that means. Hank Johnson is an African American and, as you might have surmised, this being a Democratic Primary runoff ... a Democrat.

Trust me. If this election becomes polarized along any lines, it won't be because of the media or Hank Johnson. And it certainly wouldn't surprise me if, at the end of primary day, with Ms. McKinney trailing Hank Johnson, we won't again be subjected to her father, former state rep. Billy McKinney, again blaming her defeat on the "Jews ... J-E-W-S!"

UPDATE: Matt Towery very nicely corrects my inerrant shot at the InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Survey above:
I appreciate your reference to our poll. However, I must note that the comment that IA gave Reed a ten pooint lead is just plain incorrect. Our last two major polls, published in the NY Times and AJC showed Cagle leading (NY Times) and the race a statistical dead heat (AJC).
Fair enough, Mr. Towery, I stand corrected and appreciate you taking the time to do so.

Towery also notes the following:
As for McKinney—while anything can happen, we were the firm which polled her defeat in 2002 and this looks very much like the same pattern. The trick will be whether those who say they oppose her become complacent or turn out to vote.
That's always the trick in runoff elections which usually have even fewer voters than primaries. My gut says she's gone.
 
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Comments
The media and money behind my opponent will do their utmost to polarize the election along racial and party lines.
Whereas McKinney herself has done her utmost to polarize the election along idiocy lines.
 
Written By: Billy Hollis
URL: http://
While I rarely get to read much on the net, I did see this page as our staff researched the McKinney race. I appreciate your reference to our poll. However, I must note that the comment that IA gave Reed a ten pooint lead is just plain incorrect. Our last two major polls, published in the NY Times and AJC showed Cagle leading (NY Times) and the race a statistical dead heat (AJC). I thought that your readers deserved to know the actual facts. As for McKinney—while anything can happen, we were the firm which polled her defeat in 2002 and this looks very much like the same pattern. The trick will be whether those who say they oppose her become compacent or turn out to vote. Best wishes and thanks for the time...Matt Towery, CEO, InsiderAdvantage
 
Written By: matt towery
URL: http://
I myself am following this race because if Johnson wins it will prove that Democrats know how to clean their own house.

Republicans, on the other hand, given the chance to do a similar house cleaning, re-nominated Tom DeLay.
 
Written By: J.C. WIlmore
URL: http://richmonddemocrat.blogspot.com
JC,

I don’t know how much attention you’ve been paying to Texas politics (and from your comment, it seems very little) but Texas Democrat’s forced DeLay to stay on the ticket after he had won the Sugarland district primary - easily - and then resigned after he had won.

Just so you’re not confused, he will win his old seat back, and he’ll win in court against Ronnie Earle’s charges. I’d bet a Bob’s Steak and Chophouse dinner on it.

If the Democrats down here could have done anything dumber, I’m not sure what it is. And if they’re indicative of national Dem’s cognative abilities (and they sure seem to be), then Ms. Pelosi need not get a new podium sized for her...
 
Written By: Warrior Needs Food Badly
URL: http://
And JC, as an aside, being accused and indicted of something is not the same thing as being guilty of said act. Especially when the accuser is a partisan Democratic hack like Earle...
 
Written By: Warrior Needs Food Badly
URL: http://
I’d say that despite her lack of interlectual fortitude to take for granted that her opponent is weak, the general saying "don’t turn your back on a underperformer" holds true in this case.
 
Written By: Ryan
URL: http://www.survey-scout.com

 
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