Posted by: McQ on Friday, July 28, 2006 Cynthia McKinney is in trouble in the 4th Congressional District of GA. Seems her opponent, who she describes as a "mostly unknown and unproven opponent, who will nonetheless have the unanimous backing of big national media and national money," has her trailing by over 20 points in the latest poll conducted in the district. McKinney's opponent is a gentleman named Hank Johnson. And while McKinney may think of him as an unknown, he's certainly not unknown to the voters of the 4th District. Johnson is a DeKalb County Commissioner and most of the 4th is in DeKalb County. So while it may sound good to McKinney and her supporters, it is a bit of "whistling past the graveyard" to claim Johnson is unworthy because he is "unknown and unproven". PeachBuzz gives us the down and dirty from an Insider Advantage Poll: (7/27/06) An InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Survey conducted July 25-26, 2006, shows incumbent U.S. Rep. Cynthia McKinney (D-4) trailing her runoff opponent, DeKalb County Commissioner Hank Johnson, by a wide margin. The survey of almost 500 registered voters in Georgia’s 4th Congressional District shows the following:Even with the margin of error given to McKinney (and you probably should do that since IA gave a 10 point advantage to Ralph Reed going into primary day), she trails badly. So badly that unlike previous campaigns she as agreed to two debates against Hank Johnson. Folks, just for the entertainment value, I believe I may have to watch those. Another thing to note about Georgia is anyone can vote in any primary. So seeing as a Republican hasn't the chance of the proverbial snowball in Hades in this race, it is entirely possible, nay probable, that Republicans in the district will go to the polls on August 8th just to assure McKinney's defeat. McKinney has her excuses all lined up: The media and money behind my opponent will do their utmost to polarize the election along racial and party lines.But as usual I'm not sure what that means. Hank Johnson is an African American and, as you might have surmised, this being a Democratic Primary runoff ... a Democrat. Trust me. If this election becomes polarized along any lines, it won't be because of the media or Hank Johnson. And it certainly wouldn't surprise me if, at the end of primary day, with Ms. McKinney trailing Hank Johnson, we won't again be subjected to her father, former state rep. Billy McKinney, again blaming her defeat on the "Jews ... J-E-W-S!" UPDATE: Matt Towery very nicely corrects my inerrant shot at the InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Survey above: I appreciate your reference to our poll. However, I must note that the comment that IA gave Reed a ten pooint lead is just plain incorrect. Our last two major polls, published in the NY Times and AJC showed Cagle leading (NY Times) and the race a statistical dead heat (AJC).Fair enough, Mr. Towery, I stand corrected and appreciate you taking the time to do so. Towery also notes the following: As for McKinney—while anything can happen, we were the firm which polled her defeat in 2002 and this looks very much like the same pattern. The trick will be whether those who say they oppose her become complacent or turn out to vote.That's always the trick in runoff elections which usually have even fewer voters than primaries. My gut says she's gone. |
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