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Don’t discourage the Japanese when they start making noises about a nuclear arsenal of their own. That would probably be enough to get China off the dime. |
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Written By:
Dave Schuler
URL:
http://www.theglitteringeye.com
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If I’m not mistaken, no country has ever had a failed, first test of a nuke.
Makes you feel all warm and fuzzy, eh?
Can’t comment on what we should do. I’m getting to the point where I’d be happy with a couple of salted bombs placed strategically around the globe, but that’s me beind cynical. |
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Written By:
Robb Allen
URL:
http://blog.robballen.com
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I don’t think encouraging Japanese military expansion is a good idea, certainly not in this paradigm. The Chinese and the Japanese are suspicious-to-hostile of each other, and Japan has little leverage on China. I think japanese military buildup would lead to massive Chinese defense spending increases (they’re certainly only spending the barest fraction of what they could be spending), a hardened *defense* of North Korea as a proxy weapon, and an East Asian mini-cold war that could undo the most progressive region of the globe in the past half-century.
It’s not just China that remains suspicious of Japansese military expansion. There are a lot of old memories and wounds from the Big War that never quite psychologically healed. |
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Written By:
glasnost
URL:
http://
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I know this is going to make me sound like a nut: North Korea having nukes isn’t going to be tenable to anyone in the region. I find it possible that if Japan strongly reacts, we could see news reports of how the NoKos managed to fumble their new nuclear football and detonate one on themselves. The conspiracy-minded would debate who had actually done it yet never really know. |
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Written By:
Scout
URL:
http://
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Pakistan, I seem to recall, had a failed first test. In fact, I seem to remember that they had something like three fizzles before they got the design right.
If I were in charge, we would probably make some diplomatic noises, and get UN sanctions in place, but basically give him nothing, not even much attention other than the normal diplomatic expressions of sad regret. In fact, I would not have anyone more senior than a press secretary even talking about it unless directly asked, in which case, I would play it down: "We already knew they had developed nuclear weapons. Now they have one fewer. It is a shame that their brinksmanship will probably push nations that would otherwise be inclined not to do so, to develop nuclear weapons of their own." Meanwhile, I’d clamp down hard on their finances and trade, and suggest to China, quietly, that we there is a nation in the area that has approached us about nuclear weapons programs in response, and unless China cuts their border crossings and stops supplying anything to North Korea we would of course be inclined to assist our allies with whatever technical services they needed to do so.
That might, just might, be enough to get China to cut the border, and if that happens, Kim Jong-Il is toast in less than a year: he cannot survive without China. He gives up his nukes, or gives up his country and to an invasion, or gives up his life to a coup. (Personally, I would be hoping for one of the first two: a coup could result in nukes getting sold abroad, with all kinds of horrible consequences.)
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Written By:
Jeff Medcalf
URL:
http://www.caerdroia.org/blog
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I think we should put together a nice incentive package for KJI to stop his nuclear program. It would include the following.
1 week visit to the playboy mansion
A recording contract
Guest host at the grammy awards
A tour of graceland
Procuction of one of his plays on broadway
And a trip to disney world
If we get GB in on the plan then maybe they can get a set of autographed elton john sunglasses for him.
Although this is meant to be sarcastic if you ever read anything about KJI would probably find that this would appeal more to him than anything else that has been offered.
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Written By:
Mac
URL:
http://
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Japan has little leverage on China Not quite...Japan is a regional economic powerhouse, and could field a navy that could be a serious strategic threat to China.I don’t think encouraging Japanese military expansion is a good idea, certainly not in this paradigm. The Chinese and the Japanese are suspicious-to-hostile of each other, and Japan has little leverage on China. I think japanese military buildup would lead to massive Chinese defense spending increases (they’re certainly only spending the barest fraction of what they could be spending), a hardened *defense* of North Korea as a proxy weapon, and an East Asian mini-cold war that could undo the most progressive region of the globe in the past half-century
Maybe, maybe not. The cold war worked once before you know :)
Personally, I bet the Chinese pressure Idiot Leader into calling it off. NK may be a proxy of China but there is no way in hell that the Chicoms actually want this idiot with nukes right next to them. It’s not in their interests.....they walk a fine line here |
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Written By:
SHARK
URL:
http://
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MAC: I suggest we add a PGA Tour card. I hear KJI has mad skills. |
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Written By:
Jody
URL:
http://
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Observations:
1. China has long been NORKy’s Big Daddy. Bailed them out, keep them going...always on the premise that the NORKs are a semi-autonomous satellite of the Middle Kingdom. As will all of Korea once it is unified. But for now in return for China’s largess and sacrifice in past conflict the NORKs are expected to have deep respect and listen diligently to Big Daddy and not screw Big Daddy’s life up....their job was to screw other’s lives up.
But a nuke detonation would be a colossal loss of face for China. Figuratively dribbling NORK spittle off the nose type loss of face. That might lead China to save face by cutting the lifeline.
2. Besides Japan, S Korea and Taiwan have the ability to go nuclear in under 24 months.
3. And a nuke N Korea would completely trash the S Korean engagement policy.
4. A N Korea that threatens to sell the bomb to terrorists or a regional power is is a nation that might get 750,000 degrees hotter.
5. Japan re-militarization might upset China enough to threaten begger nation America to stop it or else China will go with calling all the hundreds of billions 200 billion a year surplus trade dollars and dollars in T-bill notes Bush groveled to them to get - so he could fund his corporate welfare, 13 trillion Big Pharma subsidy plan, and tax cuts for the wealthy.
It is possible the end result of a NORK nuke could be China collapsing our debtor nation currency, go with Euros, and suffer modest droppage in trade for the pleasure of seeing both the NORKs and the USA on their knees and humbled.
Other fun scenarios exist. The idiot Chavez could show up offering a fission bombs for oil deal, forcing us to blow away that moron. The Philippines could get all friendly to the US again watching the Japs don Kamikaze head bandannas.
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Written By:
C. Ford
URL:
http://
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Any suggestion I would make would require a genuine bi-partisan and unanimous agreement. Anything less would be taken as, perhaps correctly, as political puffery that would not survive the next election, if that long. Consistency and credibility have value, but unfortunately we don’t have too many "leaders" who can demonstrate either. Realistically, we are left with the hope that the N Korean leadership takes the usual threat of "grave consequences" seriously. |
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Written By:
timactual
URL:
http://
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Here’s my idea... Lets elect a certified madman with a hair trigger temper and anger management issues.
Scare the other nations sh*tless that this kook really would push the button :) |
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Written By:
shark
URL:
http://
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It is possible the end result of a NORK nuke could be China collapsing our debtor nation currency, go with Euros, and suffer modest droppage in trade for the pleasure of seeing both the NORKs and the USA on their knees and humbled. And so when the CHINESE economy is on ITS knees, what will the government in Beijing think of this plan, do you think, C.Ford? After all the US and Europse are the target of Chinese manufactures. |
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Written By:
Joe
URL:
http://
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Here’s my idea... Lets elect a certified madman with a hair trigger temper and anger management issues.
Scare the other nations sh*tless that this kook really would push the button :) Shark, I was waiting for someone to knock this outta the ball park!
We HAVE man, we have! Chimpy McHaliburton, he’s a crazed Christainist who invaded a country because they threatened his "Pappy."
Come one people, do I have to do ALL the work here? Where’s MK or Glasnost?
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Written By:
Joe
URL:
http://
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Shark, I was waiting for someone to knock this outta the ball park! Yawn... I try to let the softballs pass ;-) But hey - good job Joe! |
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Written By:
meagain
URL:
http://
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Hey, did you just call the President a monkey?
You’re not gonna get elected if you keep that up man!
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Written By:
looker
URL:
http://
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Where’s MK or Glasnost?
Several posts above you, and offering serious opinions, rather than juvenile deliquency, buddy. |
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Written By:
glasnost
URL:
http://
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No Glasnost, let’s face facts you and MK may be serious, but are you CORRECT? |
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Written By:
Joe
URL:
http://
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