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The Futures Market on Election ’06
Posted by: Dale Franks on Wednesday, September 13, 2006

There wasn't a lot of time for any detailed blogging for me tonight, but I thought this was interesting and wanted to pass it along before heading off to bed.

The Tradesports futures market has seen a big change over the past few weeks.

Presently, the contract for the GOP retaining control of the house last sold at 52.8, after being on a decline all year. GOP control of the Senate has moved up to 84.4, although no moves there have been really dramatic.

This will be a very interesting contract to watch as the election nears.
 
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Previous Comments to this Post 

Comments
The Democrats will not win the House or the Senate. You heard it hear. No chance. Not at all.

Seriously.
 
Written By: mkultra
URL: http://
I think those odds are remarkably close to my perceptions: the Democrats have no chance of taking the Senate, and will probably fall short in the House by one or two races.

What is most ironic about this is that if the Democrats just came out and stated their policy preferences, instead of attacking the Republicans but not taking any positions themselves, they could probably take the House and threaten the Senate. While I don’t believe that many people would want to have the Democrats’ policies pass into law, I suspect that many people would also like to see the Republicans have to compromise more, and would be willing to vote Democrat if they could tell that the Democrats had any ideas about what to do in the world.
 
Written By: Jeff Medcalf
URL: http://www.caerdroia.org/blog
Ancillary:

Who benefits when the pundocricy’s predictions of a Dem take-over of Congress is proved false at the polls?

Those who can not win at the polls.

Re-load 2000 & 2004 - "How else could have ____ ______ (R __) won other than voter fraud? Everyone knows all the pundits and all the partisan polls promised us otherwise."
 
Written By: bains
URL: http://
The futures market is a neat little thing. I’ve made hundreds of dollars on it. (the hard part is getting your money back without bank transfer fees).

First was in the 2004 election when on the day of the election all the exit polls were coming out Kerry. Bush’s price went down to 25-30. I put a hundred dollars or two on him and won a good deal of money.

Then was when I listend to Tom Maguire and put money on Rove not being indicted last year. That made me a hundred dollars or so too.

But it’s also good for sports, including betting while the game is going on. I saw one football game last year where it got up to 99 that the teams were going to scored 42 points or more. Only the one team missed a fg, then the other team got it intercepted, then they lost the ball and no one scored, making it 40 points total. Some lucky bastards came out big on that one.
 
Written By: Chris
URL: http://
The Democrats will not win the House or the Senate. You heard it hear. No chance. Not at all.

Seriously.
Not only did I not say that, I didn’t even imply it, you utter moron. Christ, you’re dumb as a bag of hammers.
 
Written By: Dale Franks
URL: http://www.qando.net
Ah, the same futures market that had Bush winning at 20% on Election Day 2004. This is the best evidence that the market does not determine reality.
 
Written By: Elrod
URL: http://
Elrod, it was down so low because of the exit polls coming out that day that kerry was winning. People panicked and started selling. If you looked at it over the long term in the run up though, he was a consistant 53-55%.
 
Written By: ChrisB
URL: http://
Not only did I not say that, I didn’t even imply it, you utter moron. Christ, you’re dumb as a bag of hammers.
I was being serious. I don’t believe that the Dems will win either house.

 
Written By: mkultra
URL: http://
I was being serious. I don’t believe that the Dems will win either house.
Because Bushco will dispatch Rove to make Diebold "fix" their electronic voting machines? Or maybe Bushhitler will just use a military coup? MK, why so glum?
 
Written By: shark
URL: http://
Because Bushco will dispatch Rove to make Diebold "fix" their electronic voting machines? Or maybe Bushhitler will just use a military coup? MK, why so glum?
No, I think he’s just writing what he thinks. Maybe he’s implying something, but MK doesn’t beat around the bush very often.
 
Written By: Mark A. Flacy
URL: http://

 
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