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Key Senate Races
Posted by: McQ on Tuesday, October 10, 2006

****As some have pointed out, this compilation is from Oct. 5. So I'm going to put the RCP Senate averages by my comment for each race in [].****

Nice summary of some of the key Senate races out there:
CONNECTICUT - Sen. Joseph Lieberman, running as an independent, has a 53 percent to 33 percent lead on Democratic anti-war challenger Ned Lamont. Lieberman, a three-term Democratic incumbent, lost the party primary in August after Lamont attacked his support for the Iraq war.
So much for Netroots and single issue (Iraq) candidates. [RCP: Lieberman +13.7%]
MARYLAND - Democratic Rep. Ben Cardin leads Republican Lt. Gov. Michael Steele by 45 percent to 37 percent in the race to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Paul Sarbanes.
So it appears, at least right now, that Dems hold this seat. [RCP: Cardin +9.7%]
MISSOURI - Republican Sen. Jim Talent leads Democratic state Auditor Claire McCaskill by 43 percent to 39 percent in a contest that has been close all year.
Leaning Republican and probably a "hold" for them. [RCP: Tie]
MONTANA - Democrat Jon Tester leads Republican Sen. Conrad Burns 46 percent to 42 percent after Burns suffered a series of problems, from returning donations from associates of convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff to comments seen as insensitive to some ethnic groups and to out-of-state firefighters.
Leaning Democrat. Could be a +1 for Dems. [RCP: Tester +6%]
NEW JERSEY - Democratic Sen. Robert Menendez, considered vulnerable after polls showed a tightening race, leads Republican challenger Tom Kean Jr. by 45 percent to 35 percent.
Heh ... it's New Jersey. What else is new. A "hold" for Dems. [RCP: Menendez +3.3%]
OHIO - Republican Sen. Mike DeWine has pulled into a dead heat with Democratic Rep. Sherrod Brown at 41 percent each. DeWine had been trailing in other recent polls.
From "Leaning Dem" to tossup for the moment. [RCP: Brown +3%]
PENNSYLVANIA - Rick Santorum, the third-ranking Senate Republican, trails Democrat Bob Casey Jr., the son of a popular former governor, by 48 percent to 36 percent.
A possible Dem pick up. Could be +2 for Dems. [RCP: Casey +9.8%]
RHODE ISLAND - Sen. Lincoln Chafee, a moderate Republican in one of the most Democratic states, trails Democratic challenger Sheldon Whitehouse by 45 percent to 41 percent.
+3? [RCP: Whitehouse +6.2%]
TENNESSEE - In a race for the open seat of retiring Senate Republican Leader Bill Frist, Democratic Rep. Harold Ford Jr. and Republican Bob Corker, the former mayor of Chattanooga, are deadlocked at 40 percent each.
Up for grabs. If Dems take it, it may be +4. [RCP: Ford +2%]
VIRGINIA - Republican Sen. George Allen has survived a series of recent campaign missteps to take a 48 percent to 37 percent lead over Democratic challenger James Webb.
Looks like Allen will survive the Webb challenge. [RCP: Allen +5.2%]


So it looks like +3 right now with TN a possible +4. One short of that necessary to take the Senate.

Obviously that could change in the next few weeks, but as it stands now, it would appear (especially if they can take TN) that Republicans will retain their hold on the Senate.
 
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Comments
A new poll by USA Today/Gallup shows McCaskill up by 3 percentage points over Talent, 48 percent to 45 percent, among likely voters.
Link.
 
Written By: Davebo
URL: http://
This Reuters poll is dated Oct. 5th, which means that it may have been conducted prior to the impact of the Foley scandal. It may be right and all the others wrong, but for whatever reason, this results are at odds with most of the current polling.
 
Written By: william
URL: http://
This Reuters poll is dated Oct. 5th, which means that it may have been conducted prior to the impact of the Foley scandal.
If you give any credence to Tradesports, Foley had little effect on the Senate.
 
Written By: McQ
URL: http://www.qando.net/blog
Let’s be honest. Replacing Chafee with Whitehouse is only Dems up 1/2. ;-)
 
Written By: Sean
URL: http://www.myelectionanalysis.com
Furthermore, if you read Mystery Pollster, or know anything about polling, you cannot project races off one polling result or based upon results within the margin of error. I am not sure about the validity of tradesports, after the incredible volatility which it suffered in 2004 on election day. It probably has some predictive value, but I am not sure how much.
 
Written By: william
URL: http://
you cannot project races off one polling result
Thanks for the tip, professor. Did you even bother looking at the RCP link? You might just happen to find more than one poll result.
 
Written By: JWG
URL: http://
Furthermore, if you read Mystery Pollster, or know anything about polling, you cannot project races off one polling result or based upon results within the margin of error.

OK.

RCP averages added.
I am not sure about the validity of tradesports, after the incredible volatility which it suffered in 2004 on election day. It probably has some predictive value, but I am not sure how much.
It has worked pretty well in the past in a predictive nature. However, the RCP averages, taken after the Foley affair, pretty much validate Tradesports.
 
Written By: McQ
URL: http://www.qando.net/blog
Hey, isn’t Reuters supposedly the avowed enemy of all conservatives everywhere, so I hear, and so thoroughly liberal-dominated as to be all but making conference calls with George Soros?

Let’s look at their polls vs. RCP, who, heck, has a right-wing rep if anything:

Connecticut: Gives Lieberman +7 more than the RCP average.

Maryland: Gives Repubs +1 more than RCP average.

Missouri: Gives Repubs +4 over RCP average.

Montana: Gives Repubcs +2 over RCP.

Ohio: Gives Repubs +3 over RCP.

Rhode Island: Repubs +2 over RCP.

Tennesee: Repubs + 2 over RCP.

Virginia: Repubs + 7 over RCP

That’s 8 polls Republican-biased over 25 total pts, compared to One poll giving democrats more than the RCP average (New Jersey.)

So, either Reuteurs’ base methodology is clearly Republican-biased... or else there is significant pro-republican shift happening right now. Which I, frankly, doubt a lot. And contradicts other recent polls.

So much for Reuteurs and its mission of promoting liberalism to the death.
 
Written By: glasnost
URL: http://
are you trying to suggest that conservative reuters reporters are changing the poll results glasnost, because this post from you makes little sense, which is usually pretty rare for you (no sarcasm there).
 
Written By: ChrisB
URL: http://
I am not sure about the validity of tradesports, after the incredible volatility which it suffered in 2004 on election day.
Right, the MSM didn’t have nearly as much volatility. They just got it plain old wrong.
 
Written By: Pablo
URL: http://
Just a bit of a heads-up. In the VA race, Allen hasn’t had a lead for a while(almost a month).
 
Written By: Thomas Smith
URL: http://qando.net/blog
Let’s look at their polls vs. RCP, who, heck, has a right-wing rep if anything
RCP calculates the averages of other polls. Is there something right wing about that? It is a fact based approach, so I’ll grant you that...
 
Written By: Pablo
URL: http://
"In the VA race, Allen hasn’t had a lead for a while(almost a month)."

Huh?
 
Written By: Sean
URL: http://www.myelectionanalysis.com
I have to agree with Sean when I say, "huh?"
 
Written By: ChrisB
URL: http://
These polls are nothing but monkey business and macaca. So what does Tradesport project how long it will take the D’s to cry "Diebold lied" should the exit polls and actual results differ?
 
Written By: Come on, Please
URL: http://
are you trying to suggest that conservative reuters reporters are changing the poll results glasnost, because this post from you makes little sense, which is usually pretty rare for you (no sarcasm there).

No, I have no explanation for why Reuters’ polls are consistentently favoring Republicans over the RCP average. If forced to guess, I’d imagine some sort of methodological error of a genuinely accidental nature. But whatever it is, it sure as heck isn’t liberal bias. That was my point.


because this post from you makes little sense, which is usually pretty rare for you (no sarcasm there).

Speaking of not making sense, you know there’s more than one way to read this statement?

 
Written By: glasnost
URL: http://
you know there’s more than one way to read this statement?
Read it literally, I’m not one to fling insults around here.
 
Written By: ChrisB
URL: http://

 
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