Posted by: McQ on Tuesday, October 10, 2006 ****As some have pointed out, this compilation is from Oct. 5. So I'm going to put the RCP Senate averages by my comment for each race in [].**** Nice summary of some of the key Senate races out there: CONNECTICUT - Sen. Joseph Lieberman, running as an independent, has a 53 percent to 33 percent lead on Democratic anti-war challenger Ned Lamont. Lieberman, a three-term Democratic incumbent, lost the party primary in August after Lamont attacked his support for the Iraq war.So much for Netroots and single issue (Iraq) candidates. [RCP: Lieberman +13.7%] MARYLAND - Democratic Rep. Ben Cardin leads Republican Lt. Gov. Michael Steele by 45 percent to 37 percent in the race to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Paul Sarbanes.So it appears, at least right now, that Dems hold this seat. [RCP: Cardin +9.7%] MISSOURI - Republican Sen. Jim Talent leads Democratic state Auditor Claire McCaskill by 43 percent to 39 percent in a contest that has been close all year.Leaning Republican and probably a "hold" for them. [RCP: Tie] MONTANA - Democrat Jon Tester leads Republican Sen. Conrad Burns 46 percent to 42 percent after Burns suffered a series of problems, from returning donations from associates of convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff to comments seen as insensitive to some ethnic groups and to out-of-state firefighters.Leaning Democrat. Could be a +1 for Dems. [RCP: Tester +6%] NEW JERSEY - Democratic Sen. Robert Menendez, considered vulnerable after polls showed a tightening race, leads Republican challenger Tom Kean Jr. by 45 percent to 35 percent.Heh ... it's New Jersey. What else is new. A "hold" for Dems. [RCP: Menendez +3.3%] OHIO - Republican Sen. Mike DeWine has pulled into a dead heat with Democratic Rep. Sherrod Brown at 41 percent each. DeWine had been trailing in other recent polls.From "Leaning Dem" to tossup for the moment. [RCP: Brown +3%] PENNSYLVANIA - Rick Santorum, the third-ranking Senate Republican, trails Democrat Bob Casey Jr., the son of a popular former governor, by 48 percent to 36 percent.A possible Dem pick up. Could be +2 for Dems. [RCP: Casey +9.8%] RHODE ISLAND - Sen. Lincoln Chafee, a moderate Republican in one of the most Democratic states, trails Democratic challenger Sheldon Whitehouse by 45 percent to 41 percent.+3? [RCP: Whitehouse +6.2%] TENNESSEE - In a race for the open seat of retiring Senate Republican Leader Bill Frist, Democratic Rep. Harold Ford Jr. and Republican Bob Corker, the former mayor of Chattanooga, are deadlocked at 40 percent each.Up for grabs. If Dems take it, it may be +4. [RCP: Ford +2%] VIRGINIA - Republican Sen. George Allen has survived a series of recent campaign missteps to take a 48 percent to 37 percent lead over Democratic challenger James Webb.Looks like Allen will survive the Webb challenge. [RCP: Allen +5.2%] So it looks like +3 right now with TN a possible +4. One short of that necessary to take the Senate. Obviously that could change in the next few weeks, but as it stands now, it would appear (especially if they can take TN) that Republicans will retain their hold on the Senate. |
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