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How will the House race go in November?
Posted by: McQ on Monday, October 16, 2006

Right now that's anyone's guess and, frankly that's mostly what everyone is doing - guessing.

Jay Cost at Real Clear Politics takes some of the more scientific guesses and does some number crunching building four models based on their numbers. His conclusion:
As we can see, the results are somewhat contrary to the conventional wisdom. The range here is between 15 and 18 seats switching - which is more consistent with the House still being a toss-up, with a slight lean toward the Democrats. This does not smack of a blow-out.
Read the whole thing. It's interesting. I've seen guesses which range from 15 to 50 seats changing hands with the Dems taking the House. I said 25 yesterday on the podcast. Cost isn't so sure given his analysis of the polling data.

The one thing which does seem clear to me, however, is that unlike 1994, both parties have worked rather hard to protect incumbent seats, so, unless there is a great anti-incumbent uprising (and that may happen, but I don't necessarily think so) I'm inclined to buy off on Cost's prediction.
 
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The one thing that seems certain is that the GOP loses ground. The worst part of that is the lesson they’re likely to draw. Their political consultants will probably tell them that they lost to a party that’s to the left of them, and therefore they need to move left to recapture those votes.

I wish the GOP would look over the litany of ways that they screwed their own natural constituents through expansion of government and nonsense such as the Meirs nomination. But I’m betting they won’t. Since the guys that control the GOP in Congress have been inside the Beltway for ten years or more, they have been assimilated by the Beltway collective. They’ll have to lose or retire before the GOP can get some decent leadership to make any definitive change.
 
Written By: Billy Hollis
URL: http://
I’m hoping/assuming this will mean Frist and Hastert are gone; Newt was gone over much less than this.



 
Written By: h0mi
URL: http://

 
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