Posted by: McQ on Tuesday, October 17, 2006 A strange relationship if ever there was one. Ideologically similar, but not. Ethnically similar, but not. Both ruled by authoritarians, but one begins to prosper while the other gets poorer. As many experts have made the point to mention, North Korea is not in China's back pocket, regardless of the fact that China is the country which keeps North Korea afloat by providing food and fuel. And, of course, China has a very basic and pragmatic reason for wanting North Korea not to collapse, regardless of conditions there or who is in charge. It doesn't want the flood of millions of refugees that would entail. But there are strong indications that relationship might be changing fairly dramatically. For one thing, there's now open debate within China's leadership about regime change in North Korea, a previously out-of-bounds topic. But there are others signs as well. For example, while we loudly argue the efficacy of a fence along our southern border, China is quietly building one along its border with North Korea. Some experts see that as an overt act of distancing themselves from North Korea and perhaps preparation for a different approach to the regime in power: China is increasingly distancing itself from its long-time ally North Korea. Beijing officials confirm they are continuing construction of a concrete and barbed-wire fence along their border with the North. Confirmation of the construction project came as Chinese banks began to exert tighter controls on money transfers and other financial transactions with North Korea.So what would be the effect of such a fence? Well the obvious effect would be to deny defectors the ability to defect, but just as importantly, it would also deny refugees the ability to flood China. China's new "Great Wall" so to speak. But the not so obvious effect, coupled with the tighter controls on money transfers noted above, has to do with crippling the underground economy which thrives along the border and many claim helps keep North Korea afloat: The border is a major crossing point for two-way trade that is said to be worth several billion dollars a year. Tens of thousands of North Koreans have snuck across the border into China, fleeing oppression and widespread hunger at home."Several billions" is a huge chunk to a country who's whole GDP is 40 billion in a nation of about 23 million. As 10% of the USSR's private farming plots fed a good portion of the country under communism, one would have little difficulty in believing that of all the sanctions, stopping this bit of trade by erecting a fence could end up being the most devastating. So while we hear the official pronouncements from China about its reluctance to implement more stringent sanctions, keep this little nugget in the back of your mind. China's fence may say more about its changing attitude toward North Korea than anything its UN ambassador will ever say. |
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