Senate election review Posted by: McQ
on Friday, October 20, 2006
Since I think the House is going to the Dems, I'm more interested in monitoring the Senate races. So, using the template from a previous post (October 10) from a couple of weeks ago, let's update with RCP numbers and discuss:
CONNECTICUT - Sen. Joseph Lieberman, running as an independent and leads in the race. Lieberman, a three-term Democratic incumbent, lost the party primary in August after Lamont attacked his support for the Iraq war.
So much for Netroots and single issue (Iraq) candidates. [RCP 10/10: Lieberman +13.7%, RCP 10/20: Lieberman +12.2%]
MARYLAND - Democratic Rep. Ben Cardin leads Republican Lt. Gov. Michael Steele in the race to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Paul Sarbanes.
So it appears, at least right now, that Dems hold this seat (even with a slight narrowing of the numbers). [RCP 10/10: Cardin +9.7%, RCP 10/20: Cardin +7.6%]
MISSOURI - Republican Sen. Jim Talent trails Democratic state Auditor Claire McCaskill slightly in a contest that has been close all year.
A statistical tie. [RCP 10/10: Tie, RCP 10/20: McCaskill +1.4%]
MONTANA - Democrat Jon Tester leads Republican Sen. Conrad Burns after Burns suffered a series of problems, from returning donations from associates of convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff to comments seen as insensitive to some ethnic groups and to out-of-state firefighters.
Still leaning Democrat. Could be a +1 for Dems. [RCP 10/10: Tester +6%, RCP 10/20: Tester +6%]
NEW JERSEY - Democratic Sen. Robert Menendez, considered vulnerable after polls showed a tightening race, leads Republican challenger Tom Kean Jr.
Heh ... it's New Jersey. What else is new. A "hold" for Dems. [RCP 10/10: Menendez +3.3%, RCP 10/20: Menendez +3.9%]
OHIO - Republican Sen. Mike DeWine has fallen well behind Democratic Rep. Sherrod Brown in the last 10 days.
Big gains by Brown. [RCP 10/10: Brown +3%, RCP: 10/20: Brown +10.6%] Dems +2.
PENNSYLVANIA - Rick Santorum, the third-ranking Senate Republican, trails Democrat Bob Casey Jr., the son of a popular former governor by a fairly significant margin.
A probable Dem pick up. +3 for Dems. [RCP 10/10: Casey +9.8%, RCP 10/20: Casey +9.5%]
RHODE ISLAND - Sen. Lincoln Chafee, a moderate Republican in one of the most Democratic states, trails Democratic challenger Sheldon Whitehouse.
TENNESSEE - In a race for the open seat of retiring Senate Republican Leader Bill Frist, Democratic Rep. Harold Ford Jr. and Republican Bob Corker, the former mayor of Chattanooga, are pretty much deadlocked.
Up for grabs and has actually tightened from last time with Corker gaining slightly. [RCP 10/10: Ford +2%, RCP: 10/20 Ford +0.8%]
VIRGINIA - Republican Sen. George Allen has survived a series of recent campaign missteps and still holds a lead over Democratic challenger James Webb.
It still looks like Allen may survive the Webb challenge even with the slight tightening. [RCP 10/10: Allen +5.2%, RCP: 10/20: Allen +4.7%]
So now it still looks like +4 with this week's numbers a gain of one seat in the plus column since we last looked. That, of course, is one short of enough seats for the Dems to take the Senate.
I'd remind you that the RCP numbers are average numbers from a number of polls. But I think they reflect trends pretty fairly. We'll see.
With some focusing .... Rick Santorum will win. Michael Steele will win. Jim Talent will win. The GOP will keep the House and the Senate. It will send a message that we do, in fact, live in a 9/11 world and we vote as if we are.
Right now is the time when real people really start paying attention. Arrogant pundits might want to call it a slaughter. Give up now and it may be one. Tell the truth — that there are three weeks left and anything can happen, and anything can happen.
And mark my words: Santorum wins. Someone will self-destruct over that fact. The latter isn't the intended outcome, but it's bound to happen.
I think you’re right about the ultimate outcome, and agree with your call. However, it is important to remember that these races are still very much in flux. Two especially bear watching. In New Jersey, Tom Kean, Jr., is just now going up with his first ads, and is beginning to campaign with his father. In other words, his poll position right now is something of a base, and it isn’t a bad place to start from. Menendez is consistently below 50%, which is not great news for an incumbent. Kean still very much has a chance to pull this off, though I wouldn’t call it a great chance.
The other is Montana. I’ll admit that I had written this one off, but most polling shows this closing to a low single digit affair. Still bad news for Burns, but it is becoming winnable. Especially after Tester announced in a recent debate that he wanted not to weaken the Patriot Act, but to outright repeal it. I think that will make some pretty effective attack ads in Montana . . .
.... Rick Santorum will win. Michael Steele will win. Jim Talent will win. The GOP will keep the House and the Senate. It will send a message that we do, in fact, live in a 9/11 world and we vote as if we are.
Ha ha, I saw the same post, but it seemed funnier in the update. I’ll even meet you halfway - I think John Podhoretz and probably three or four other people over there would also call her a few thursters short of a moon unit.
Ugh, I’m going to end up with Senator Sherrod Brown and Governor Ted Strickland. I’d better hide my guns now and start withdrawing from my retirement annuity in order to pay for the higher taxes to come.
Of course, looking back at Senator DeWine and Governor Taft doesn’t make me feel much better.
In 1983 .. Sen. Edward Kennedy (D-Mass.) offered to assist Soviet leaders in formulating a public relations strategy to counter President Reagan’s foreign policy and to complicate his re-election efforts.