Posted by: McQ on Friday, October 20, 2006 Since I think the House is going to the Dems, I'm more interested in monitoring the Senate races. So, using the template from a previous post (October 10) from a couple of weeks ago, let's update with RCP numbers and discuss: CONNECTICUT - Sen. Joseph Lieberman, running as an independent and leads in the race. Lieberman, a three-term Democratic incumbent, lost the party primary in August after Lamont attacked his support for the Iraq war.So much for Netroots and single issue (Iraq) candidates. [RCP 10/10: Lieberman +13.7%, RCP 10/20: Lieberman +12.2%] MARYLAND - Democratic Rep. Ben Cardin leads Republican Lt. Gov. Michael Steele in the race to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Paul Sarbanes.So it appears, at least right now, that Dems hold this seat (even with a slight narrowing of the numbers). [RCP 10/10: Cardin +9.7%, RCP 10/20: Cardin +7.6%] MISSOURI - Republican Sen. Jim Talent trails Democratic state Auditor Claire McCaskill slightly in a contest that has been close all year.A statistical tie. [RCP 10/10: Tie, RCP 10/20: McCaskill +1.4%] MONTANA - Democrat Jon Tester leads Republican Sen. Conrad Burns after Burns suffered a series of problems, from returning donations from associates of convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff to comments seen as insensitive to some ethnic groups and to out-of-state firefighters.Still leaning Democrat. Could be a +1 for Dems. [RCP 10/10: Tester +6%, RCP 10/20: Tester +6%] NEW JERSEY - Democratic Sen. Robert Menendez, considered vulnerable after polls showed a tightening race, leads Republican challenger Tom Kean Jr.Heh ... it's New Jersey. What else is new. A "hold" for Dems. [RCP 10/10: Menendez +3.3%, RCP 10/20: Menendez +3.9%] OHIO - Republican Sen. Mike DeWine has fallen well behind Democratic Rep. Sherrod Brown in the last 10 days.Big gains by Brown. [RCP 10/10: Brown +3%, RCP: 10/20: Brown +10.6%] Dems +2. PENNSYLVANIA - Rick Santorum, the third-ranking Senate Republican, trails Democrat Bob Casey Jr., the son of a popular former governor by a fairly significant margin.A probable Dem pick up. +3 for Dems. [RCP 10/10: Casey +9.8%, RCP 10/20: Casey +9.5%] RHODE ISLAND - Sen. Lincoln Chafee, a moderate Republican in one of the most Democratic states, trails Democratic challenger Sheldon Whitehouse.[RCP 10/10: Whitehouse +6.2%, RCP 10/20: Whitehouse +5.4%] Tightening, but still a probable Dem pickup. +4 TENNESSEE - In a race for the open seat of retiring Senate Republican Leader Bill Frist, Democratic Rep. Harold Ford Jr. and Republican Bob Corker, the former mayor of Chattanooga, are pretty much deadlocked.Up for grabs and has actually tightened from last time with Corker gaining slightly. [RCP 10/10: Ford +2%, RCP: 10/20 Ford +0.8%] VIRGINIA - Republican Sen. George Allen has survived a series of recent campaign missteps and still holds a lead over Democratic challenger James Webb.It still looks like Allen may survive the Webb challenge even with the slight tightening. [RCP 10/10: Allen +5.2%, RCP: 10/20: Allen +4.7%] So now it still looks like +4 with this week's numbers a gain of one seat in the plus column since we last looked. That, of course, is one short of enough seats for the Dems to take the Senate. I'd remind you that the RCP numbers are average numbers from a number of polls. But I think they reflect trends pretty fairly. We'll see. UPDATE: Meanwhile KJ Lopez over at The Corner is smoking something: With some focusing .... Rick Santorum will win. Michael Steele will win. Jim Talent will win. The GOP will keep the House and the Senate. It will send a message that we do, in fact, live in a 9/11 world and we vote as if we are.OK, I'm marking your words. Follow-up promised. |
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