Posted by: Dale Franks on Wednesday, October 25, 2006 Well, I've been looking over the House and Senate races, and while I'm not yet ready to call it two weeks out, at the moment, its looking like another 50/50 election. Keeping in mind that a lot can happen in two weeks, and realizing that polls are very tricky things, here's how the election is sorting our right now. Let's start with the House of Representatives. The current situation looks like this:
The Democrats have a solid 196 seats, the Republicans a solid 189. This leaves 50 seats up for grabs. Of those, 14 are leaning Democrat and 21 are leaning Republican. That leaves 15 seats that go into the Tossup category. I've looked at the polling for all of 15 of those seats. Based on that analysis, assuming the current trends hold and that all the leaners fall the way they're leaning, this would be the likely election result:
Note that there is one seat still shown in gray. That would be CT-4, the Chris Shays seat. It's dead even, with no definite trend in the polling. Not that it matters. Even if it goes red, the Republicans still have a minority. The best scenario for the Republicans to keep their majority ends up like this:
In the Senate, the current election situation make the battle for a majority an uphill battle for the Democrats.
The Democrats have 41 solid seats, compared to 47 solid seats for the Republicans. But the Democrats do have 6 leaners compared to one for the Republicans. Five seats are tossups. Looking at those five seats, though, the likely result is:
The best case scenario for the Democrats, though, still doesn't give them a majority.
For Democrats to win that 51st seat, they'd basically have to run the table on the tossups, including winning both TN and VA. That doesn't strike me as exceptionally likely. In the meantime, I'm looking ahead to 2008, as well. In preparation for that, I've built a Windows application in .NET to count electoral votes. It's good for hours of fun to anyone using Windows, and who has the .Net Framework v1.1 installed, which should be most Windows users. |
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