Posted by: McQ on Monday, October 30, 2006 So how are those key Senate race numbers trending this week (with 8 days to the midterm election)? Let's look at the RCP averages for 10/30: CONNECTICUT - Sen. Joseph Lieberman, running as an independent and leads in the race. Lieberman, a three-term Democratic incumbent, lost the party primary in August after Lamont attacked his support for the Iraq war.So much for Netroots and single issue (Iraq) candidates. While there is a slight erosion in the trend, still a strong lead for Lieberman. [RCP 10/10: Lieberman +13.7%, RCP 10/20: Lieberman +12.2%, RCP 10/30: Lieberman +11.6%] MARYLAND - Democratic Rep. Ben Cardin leads Republican Lt. Gov. Michael Steele in the race to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Paul Sarbanes.The trend shows continuing erosion for Cardin and it could tighten even more in the next 8 days, but at the moment it still leans Democratic. [RCP 10/10: Cardin +9.7%, RCP 10/20: Cardin +7.6%, RCP 10/30 Cardin: +5.3%] MISSOURI - Republican Sen. Jim Talent now has a slight lead over Democratic state Auditor Claire McCaskill in a contest that has been close all year.Still a statistical tie, but Talent holds the slim lead instead of McCaskill. More on that race here. [RCP 10/10: Tie, RCP 10/20: McCaskill +1.4%, RCP 10/30: Talent +1%] MONTANA - Democrat Jon Tester leads Republican Sen. Conrad Burns after Burns suffered a series of problems, from returning donations from associates of convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff to comments seen as insensitive to some ethnic groups and to out-of-state firefighters.Still leaning Democrat but tightening. Could be a +1 for Dems if Tester can hold on. [RCP 10/10: Tester +6%, RCP 10/20: Tester +6%, RCP 10/30: Tester +4%] NEW JERSEY - Democratic Sen. Robert Menendez, considered vulnerable after polls showed a tightening race, leads Republican challenger Tom Kean Jr.Heh ... it's New Jersey. What else is new. No change. A "hold" for Dems. [RCP 10/10: Menendez +3.3%, RCP 10/20: Menendez +3.9%, RCP 10/30: Menendez +3.8%] OHIO - Republican Sen. Mike DeWine has fallen well behind Democratic Rep. Sherrod Brown.Brown continues to widen the gap. If Tester holds on in MT it could be Dems +2. [RCP 10/10: Brown +3%, RCP: 10/20: Brown +10.6%, RCP 10/30: Brown +11.7%] PENNSYLVANIA - Rick Santorum, the third-ranking Senate Republican, trails Democrat Bob Casey Jr., the son of a popular former governor by a fairly significant margin.Casey continues to widen the gap over Santorum. Up over 4 points in 10 days. +3 for Dems. [RCP 10/10: Casey +9.8%, RCP 10/20: Casey +9.5%, RCP 10/30: Casey +13.6%] RHODE ISLAND - Sen. Lincoln Chafee, a moderate Republican in one of the most Democratic states, trails Democratic challenger Sheldon Whitehouse.Whitehouse back up to his 6+ point lead. +4 Dems [RCP 10/10: Whitehouse +6.2%, RCP 10/20: Whitehouse +5.4%, RCP 10/30: Whitehouse +6.8%] TENNESSEE - In a race for the open seat of retiring Senate Republican Leader Bill Frist, Democratic Rep. Harold Ford Jr. and Republican Bob Corker, the former mayor of Chattanooga in what has been a very tight race.What a weird couple of weeks in Tennessee. Ford may have done himself in as Corker now leads with a shift of 3 points (still very tight but leaning Republican). [RCP 10/10: Ford +2%, RCP 10/20: Ford +0.8%, RCP 10/30: Corker +2.3%] VIRGINIA - Excerpts published from a Webb novel which are, well, explicit and causing waves, politically. However that doesn't seen, at this moment, to have hurt Webb particularly.Some erosion and almost a tie as Webb has gained some ground even though Allen still has a slight lead. [RCP 10/10: Allen +5.2%, RCP: 10/20: Allen +4.7%, RCP 10/30: Allen +1.5%] So Tester (D) is seeing his lead erode in MT as is Allen (R) in VA. Talent (R) has taken a slim lead over McCaskill in MO (D) as has Corker (R) over Ford (D) in TN. But it still adds up, at the moment, to +4 for the Dems. I'd remind you that the RCP numbers are average numbers from a number of polls. But I think they reflect trends pretty fairly. I'd also remind you that a heck of a lot can happen in 8 days (see TN and VA this past week). Stay tuned. |
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