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Election Day open thread: predictions
Posted by: McQ on Tuesday, November 07, 2006

Record your Congressional predictions here, discuss the vote, discuss the election in general.
 
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Split: GOP keeps Senate, Dems get a small majority in the house.

Lieberman: Wins easily (but it was all about Iraq, right?)

Pundits: No matter what result, it will be spun as:
1) Repudiation of Bush
2) Repudiation of Iraq

(It may actually be true in certain events but that’s the storyline regardless of whatever happens)
 
Written By: shark
URL: http://
I made a post in the other election prediction post, but I’ll just post it here and add some stuff.

I just voted this morning, so here’s my exit poll. As I’ve advocated here for awhile I voted for Libertarians over Republicans for my Senator and Rep (even though I generally like my Rep Culberson). In local races I voted Libertarian, and Republicans over Democrats if there were no Libertarians. For Texas governor I voted for Kinky Friedman (if only he and the other independent Strayhorn, had combined support they would actually be polling even with Perry. And here’s the one Democrat I voted for, with no regrets. Also voted ’No’ on all local propositions, which were mainly along the lines of can we borrow a bunch of money and then raise taxes to pay it back.
 
Written By: ChrisB
URL: http://
From Polipundit

"In precincts 7, 19, 51 in Philly, PA, the crowds are going wild. Inside several voting locations, individuals have poured white out onto the polling books and the poll workers are allowing voters to go into the polls and vote without first registering. Several individuals are on hand demanding that voters vote straight Democrat.

Police and RNC lawyers have headed to the scene of the incidents, which are occurring in mostly hispanic precinct locations.

"


Why am I not suprised?

I expect lots more of this crap from the dems today.



 
Written By: retired military
URL: http://
I ran into a little problem voting with the voting machines.I live in a very rural area so we only had one machine, which is fine, but I descided that I wanted to do a write in for governor. There were 5 other people waiting so when I had to stop everything and get the poll worker to dig out the write-in stuff everyone knew that I wasn’t voting for either of the big candidates.I really don’t care if they know myself but that is not the way it is supposed to work.People should not have any idea who you did or did not vote for unless you tell them.
 
Written By: SkyWatch
URL: http://
I believe—on the basis of things not improving as much as I’d like for the Republicans—that the Dem’s odds of taking the house are up to 45%. Neither party will have a greater majority than six seats, unless the Democratic rioting in PA has it’s intended effect.

Then the Dems might end up with a ten seat majority.

The most likely thing is the R’s keeping a six seat majority.

The odds of the Dem’s taking the senate have I think gone up to 5%.

I have no idea which of the roughly equally likely options will happen, but the better part of the odds are for the R’s to keep the House.

I’ll need a sling for my jaw if the D’s take the Senate.

Yours, TDP, ml, msl, & pfpp
 
Written By: Tom Perkins
URL: http://
I reckon that the GOP will retain both houses.
I have pulled this result out of my arse but think it has as much validity as any of the polls I have seen.
 
Written By: Kav
URL: http://livingrealworld.blogspot.com
I have pulled this result out of my arse but think it has as much validity as any of the polls I have seen.
LOL! Can’t really argue with that Kav.
 
Written By: McQ
URL: http://www.qando.net/blog
I voted Republican just so there would be one Republican vote in Charlottesville. Voted for A & B and against C (Tax breaks for economic development). I also was harassed by an anti A elite leftist commando on the way into vote. This town is morally bankrupt and intellectually void.

 
Written By: coaster
URL: http://
FYI for GA voters - a nice write up on the ballot initiatives -

http://www.lwvga.org/documents/LWVGAGuidetotheBallotFINAL.pdf
 
Written By: meagain
URL: http://
Kav said it!

My arse says the Repub’s hold both houses. And the media gets rotten egg on its face.

This election is really a referendum on the liberal media-political estate, and Dem losses in the face of all the media cheer-leading and poll-spinning will make the Dem’s media patrons and 527’s look like frauds.

Here’s hopin’.
-Steve

 
Written By: Steve
URL: http://
Well, it’s really too close to call, but nothing ventured, nothing gained....

I too go for the "near-death experience" scenario for the GOP. They lose seats in both houses, but retain a very narrow margin in each.

If that happens, the real question is whether they learn their lesson from it. And, contrary to what Jay Nordlinger thinks (via Daily Pundit), I’m afraid they won’t. The Beltway Collective (GOP Division) seems impenetrable. No matter what happens, they just keep on thinking they can keep up the scam of talking a good game on conservative principles but doing little or nothing to back up their talk. I wish Jay were right, but I just can’t convince myself he is.

That’s why I’ll just shrug if the Democrats do take the House. (I really hope they don’t take the Senate, though. No more Souters!)
 
Written By: Billy Hollis
URL: http://
Hmmm. There seems to be quite a few Texan’s that read this blog. (Note to Mark Flacy: I’m your neighbor in Lewisville, Tx.)

As for predictions, well:
1) I’m going out on a short limb here that Republicans will hold, by a slim margin, the House.
2) I fully expect that the Republicans will easily hold the Senate, with 2 or 3 losses, but at least one surprise win in either MD, NJ, or MI (in that order).
The absolute dumbfounded looks tonight on the media’s collective faces will only be matched by 2002, when Rush came out and predicted big gains for the GOP, and was pooh-poohed by everyone, especially James Carville - all of whom thought the Dems would win handily. Even funnier was that by the end of the night it was so bad for the Dems Carville was wearing a bag over his head. That night led me to give Rush quite a bit of respect although I don’t listen much (the local sports station - The Ticket, 1310 - is too good), and I even gained a modicum of respect for Carville. The bag was genius and appropriate.

My reasons for these predictions stem from 1994 to the present, and it has little to do with the "Republican Revolution", and a lot to do with technology. From about the middle of the 90’s, when technology, especially computers and the ’net, changed(s) exponentially yearly, it has allowed information to be collected and dispersed diffusely and rapidly. I no longer must wait for ABCNBCCBSCNNFFOXMSNBC to put it in a 30 second to 2 minute sound bite, and slanted in the direction they desire (most often very left). Nor do I have to wait for my paper’s next day or next week analysis. I can have immediate gratification via the web.

In the same sense, the internet has acted as a giant filter; so while bs can still be thrown against the wall in larger volumes (see the 9/11 conspiracy theories), it can be shoveled up and burned for fuel just as fast and usually more effectively (see the Bush TANG memo’s). [As an aside to our friends on the left: technology has not often been your friend. Your ability to fully control the message, whatever it is, has been greatly diluted. This can be seen in the rapidly declining numbers of mainstream news broadcasts, and (sorry Bruce) declining newspaper readership. And I don’t see how it comes back, when the alternative are vast, and vastly more thoughtful. Read anything from Ed Morrissey, Tom Maguire, Matthew Yglesias or anything from Bruce, Dale, or Jon on this blog if you want to see this phenomena in action. Most are prolific, well thought out, well documented, and quick to correct if wrong. For example, Morrissey was extraordinary in the Canadian MP scandal, and may have helped shape their elections.]

Finally, technology has allowed me to opt out of dealing with anything related to elections, politics, Dem, Reps, the war, the economy, whatever if I choose to do so. News channels are "all election, all the time"? No problem, I’ve got 317 other channels. (Cool, another home remodeling show!) Tired of answering the phone for another gallup poll? (Great, caller ID say to ignore it! (Three in the last two weeks.) Don’t wanna read another partisan blog? (Fine, I need to work on my fantasy football team anyways. First place - woohoo! Oh, and what are the cool new games coming out? Civ XVII, anyone?)

From where sit, this has led to making polls, polling and pollsters in general mostly worthless. Even the best of them can only get one out of ten to answer the phone? Doesn’t that fact alone make everything henceforth useless? And subscribing to Billy Hollis’ thesis that only the most motivated answer these polling calls (and I do subscribe to the theory), isn’t it just another lesson of the futility of following polling? Polling has become less and less accurate since 1994, even for the best of them. And I don’t blame the pollsters, but I suggest that they find new methods, because soon your polls will become worth less than the pixels burned to view them - if they’re not already.

So, while my feeling about this election is much more art than science, the science no longer works and may go the way of newscasters and newspapers. Useful to a few, relevant to even fewer.

I too voted for Kinky. Why the he** not?

And while I don’t always vote republican, I won’t again vote for a democrat in the forseeable future. I cannot support cowards and institional cowardice, which is where they are now. Sadly.
 
Written By: Warrior Needs Food Badly
URL: http://
And the media gets rotten egg on its face.
That plus the wailing and gnashing of teeth at Kos, MyDD, DU, et. al. would almost be worth letting the GOP slide this time.

In a sense, I’m looking at the House as a positive either way. A GOP win annoys some of the people I most like to see annoyed. A Democrat win leads to McQ’s divided government, and the strongest possible wake-up call for the GOP.

Of course, they’re really good at sleeping through wake-up calls. We’ll see if the alarm is clock is loud enough this time.
 
Written By: Billy Hollis
URL: http://
Oh, and if for some reason that I turn out to be completely wrong then you may happily use this comment against me. Just tell me where to stand for my flogging.
 
Written By: Warrior Needs Food Badly
URL: http://
Just found this site! Yay! I changed my registration from LP to RNC after 9/11 (after reading the LP’s position statement.)

I made the following prediction on my blog:

1) We (The Republicans) will just barely maintain control of Congress.
2) Leftist Democrats will cry foul and take to the streets, protesting ’rigged’ elections.
3) It will turn out that, in spite of some irregularities, incompetence, and stupid local election laws, the elections were fairly conducted and the Republicans that won their elections won fair and square.
4) A few days later it will come out that the only actual instance of vote tampering occured when a far-left Democrat opperative hacked into an electronic ballot box. This news will be buried by all major news outlets, and maybe reported (sneeringly) by NewsMax or some such. Other far-left wackos will canonize the hacker for "leveling the playing field."
 
Written By: Ronnie Gipper
URL: http://socalconservative.blogspot.com
Blood, Fire, Fear, War, Famine, Pestilence, and Hunger will stalk our fair Land...Doom.
Things fall apart the centre cannot hold Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed.

QUAGMIRE.

Or alternatively as CSN&Y would say, "Hooray for our side"
 
Written By: Joe
URL: http://
No not CSN&Y, but instead Buffalo Springfield:
A thousand people in the street
Singing songs and carrying signs
Mostly say, hooray for our side
 
Written By: Joe
URL: http://
No not CSN&Y, but instead Buffalo Springfield:
Sure, Joe, but if the Democrats win the House, CSN&Y will be the source of their theme song:

"Our House is a very, very, very fine House...."
 
Written By: Billy Hollis
URL: http://
"Our House is a very, very, very fine House...."

Beautiful song...

"Hooray for our side" is just a marvelous phrase... I use it all the time. Exactly WHO IS "our side?" Folks always know, of course, "our side" is ME, it can never be YOU...
 
Written By: Joe
URL: http://
Dem house and Senate, despite Mike Steele’s coordinated attempt to fool voters into thinking he’s a Democrat.

 
Written By: glasnost
URL: http://

 
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