Khamenei is known to be suffering from cancer, and taking considerable quantities of an opium-based pain killer. He has lost more than 17 pounds in the past ten months, and was told last spring that he was unlikely to see another New Year (In the Iranian calendar, the New Year begins at the end of March).

The Supreme Leader has good reason to keep his condition secret, and to seek to demonstrate he retains his ability to rule the country. Khamenei knows that his regime is riven by intense conflict, some of which has been dramatically exposed in recent weeks in the run-up to the election of a new Assembly of Experts (the clerical body whose main responsibility is the selection of the Supreme Leader).

A week ago, the Majlis (the national assembly) passed a law effectively reducing the presidential term of Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nezhad by a full year. This was universally seen as an attack in favor of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, Ahmadi-Nezhad’s most visible political rival, and a candidate to succeed Khamenei.

Meanwhile, as reported in Iran Press News, the ongoing public challenge to the regime itself continues unabated.

On Wednesday, thousands of students demonstrated on the campus of Tehran University, chanting “death to despotism,” and “death to the dictator.” And in Mazandaran Province, up by the Caspian Sea, thousands of angry workers protested in front of Ahmadi-Nezhad himself, announcing they were starving and demanding the government honor its promise to improve the lot of the poor.

Mesbah-Yazdi, an ideological mentor to Ahmadinejad, is an extremist cleric who endorses the use of suicide bombers against Israel and for confrontation with the West.

He is also campaigning to succeed Grand Ayatollah Ali Khameini as head of the Iranian Islamic state, and his ties to fellow fundamentalist Ahmadinejad give him a leg up. If he wins, as appears all too probable, Iran will be taking another step away from democracy and toward war.