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2006 Prediction Review
Posted by: McQ on Tuesday, December 26, 2006

2006 has certainly been an interesting year. As some may recall, last year I solicited predictions for 2006, and I thought it might be fun to review a few (yeah, I know, you guys thought (maybe hoped in some cases) I'd forget about these didn't you?).

The topics were:
* Iraq

* The War on Terror

* The 2006 midterm elections

* Democratic leadership

* Republican leadership

* The Bush administration

* Politics in general

* Blogging

* The Main Stream Media

* The Anti-War movement

* The Middle East

* Radical Islam
What I consider the best prediction is in bold. The worst in italics.

Shark: "BOLD PREDICTION: Zarqawri will be caught or killed."

Rosensteel: "2006 will be a pivotal year regarding the formation of the Iraqi government. This year, perhaps more than any, will determine if workable political coalitions can govern the country or whether we see a descent into sectarian conflict."

Bithead: "The battle in Iraq, which is only a part of the war on Terror, will be winding down, as the terrorists try other, easier-to-attack areas of the world to ply their trade. In total, however, they will not amount to much."

Retired Military: "Iraq - Will continue to get better."

Jon Henke: "Iraq will continue to grow more and more complex, with the primary narrative shifting from the insurgency to the political wrangling. However...

[A]s the Shiites cement their hold on the interior and security departments, the Sunnis will grow more and more desperate, leading to an escalating series of uprisings and political demands. The Kurds will spend their time and resources ensuring their own defense and autonomy should the whole thing break down.


Calls to bring the troops home will pick up steam, and troops will begin coming home in significant numbers. The two may or may not be related."

Mike: "By the end of the year, once a popularly elected govt is inplace with Iraqi Security Forces leading the fight, will no longer lead the headlines. Any one remember Afghanistan?"

NotherBob: "...will begin to look (politically) like modern America, only with three major divisions instead of two. They will get along about as well as our two do, but with their lack of experience with democracy it will be messier.

AbuQa'Qa: "The Iraqis will consolidate political parties, infighting will continue but with the ballot instead of bullets. The insurgency will continue low level violence as the IDF wears them down. 50,000 US troops will either be home or scheduled to rotate out."

Unaha-closp: "Shia Arab and Kurdish forces will begin active suppression of Sunni Arab areas. There will be some reports of torture by Iraqi forces - reports will not be acted upon. When Isreal attacks Iranian nuclear facilities there will be an increase in coalition troop deaths as Iranian proxies retaliate."

Pogue Mahone: "Sadly, the strength of the insurgency will not subside in significance due to the increased political involvement of the Sunnis. The Shi’ite majority government will continue to embrace cultural and political influence from Iran at an even greater pace."

KyleN: "Troops begin to come home from Iraq, The Iranian President promises to Invade Iraq and bomb Israel when the last American leaves. Then he says he was only kidding."
Shark gets the big "bingo" on this one. Rosensteel a close second. Jon, Pogue and Unaha's predictions are pretty fair and Bithead, AbuQa'Qa, Retired Military and NotherBob take the "Oops" award for Iraq.

War on Terror:
Retired Military: "Bush will continue to make gains in popularity due to the democrats not having a viable message that resounds with the American people. OBL will not be free by the end of the year."

Mike: "Will become less and less important as the US dismembers the organization and continues to kill its leadership."

NotherBob: "[WoT] will focus on areas other than Iraq. Where, is up to the terrorists."

AbuQua'Qua: "[WoT] will ramp up as Jihadis continue their outrage around the world. More international co-operation in suppressing them."

Unaha-closp: "[WoT] will continue, Saudi and Iranian money will continue to finance the bulk of terrorist activities."

Pogue Mahone: "See above [Iraq]. Also, the verbiage will enjoy little abatement as camouflage for ever increasingly rampant executive power."
Retired Military gets the only "Oops" in this one. There were terrorist attacks around the globe, but it appears, for the most part, the global network of terrorism (not to be confused with the nationalist or religious insurgents in Iraq) don't seem to have had a particularly good year.

Now for some fun.

2006 Midterm Elections:
Rosensteel: "Moderate but significant gains by Democrats in 2006, narrowing (but not eliminating) the Republican majority.

Pennsylvania Republican Rick Santorum will be removed by voters in favor of, well, pretty much anyone the Democrats decide to run against him."

Shark: "The 2006 midterm elections—-Meaningless. The Dems probably make some gains in the House but not enough. Their "culture of corruption" meme fizzles. Just biding time until the 2008 battle royale."

Bithead: "Democrats loose more seats in both houses of Congress, which will in turn, cause even more incoherrent babbling from them."

Retired Military: "Democrats will lose at least 2 seats in the House and at least 1 seat in the Senate."

Jon Henke: "Democrats will pick up a not-inconsequential number of seats in the ’06 elections."

Mike: "... minor Republican gains in the Senate. No change to Majority Status in either the House or the Senate."

NotherBob: "The midterm elections will be large gains for the Democrats, but not enough to give them real power."

AbuQa'Qa: "Not much change in mid terms. Dems are positioned to increase representation, but incapable of uniting on message and tactics."

Unaha-closp: "Democrats will not do well."

Pogue Mahone: "The Democrats will be unable to fully capitalize on the purported Republican “culture of corruption” and only pick up a couple of seats in the Senate and House."
I only picked Bithead's as the "Oops" on this one because it was so completely wrong (and besides, Retired Military had a streak going), but others were also on the wrong side of the results. I picked NotherBob's as the best because it seems it may best represent the reality of the midterms and gains by Dems.

Democratic Leadership:
Shark: "SAFE PREDICTION: Howard Dean will say something profoundly stupid."

KyleN: "Howard Dean is "disappeared" by Democrats who want to win elections."

Bithead: "I see no major changes for the Democratic leadership until after the 2006 election cycle’s losses. I expect an uprising within the party at that point, to get something done. However, the Democrats will remain as disjointed as they have been, as unable to raise a rally as they have been because they’re still going to be in a major fight over what direction to take the party. I anticipate a full implosion of the party between the November losses, and January, 2007."

Retired Military: "Will continue to shoot themselves in the foot regarding the war. As the situation in Iraq gets better expect the rhetoric to get worse. Jan- May will be like the week after Katrina. Aug - Dec will shine the light on the lies of the first part of the year."

Jon Henke: "The Democrats will begin to coalesce around a Message for ’08."

Mike: "will continue to reflect more and more of the fringe element of the Democratic Party. Will continue to attempt to indict Republican Leadership with bogus charges and attempt to win through the courts what they can’t win at the ballot box. Following November election losses, Reid and Pelosi and Dean will be replaced."

NotherBob: "Democratic leadership is an oxymoron."

AbuQa'Qa: "Democrat Leadership will change after poor showing in 2006 mid terms. Change not necessarily for the better."

Unaha-closp: Democratic leadership - will need to be revitalised between 2006 & 2008.

Pogue Mahone: "Here’s the long shot prediction. The Democratic leadership will make a concerted effort to incorporate so-called “pro-life” Democrats for a flank attack on Republican’s alleged monopoly on “values”."
OK, shark and NotherBob don't get credit for predicting or stating the obvious. Pogue, however, nailed it. On the "Oops" side it was close, but Bithead nudged out KyleN and Retired Military again.

And speaking of oxymorons, we move to the next category.

Republican Leadership:
Shark: "SAFE PREDICTION: The GOP leadership will be predictably clueless."

Retired Military: "Frist will continue to fumble the ball. Delay will get cleared of charges."

Mike: "Some one will take charge and begin to present the Republican agenda for 08. I am thinking Sen Allen."

NotherBob: "Republican leadership will seem to change, but will remain the same. RINOs will gain power, at the expense of the far right."

AbuQa'Qa: "Presidential candidates with real chance for 2008 will become clearer. Fortunately no Howard Dean’s are in view."

Unaha-closp: "Republican leadership - wins as the lesser of 2 incompetencies."

Pogue Mahone: "Will go down in history as the Republican Eunuchs of 2006."

Steve: "Prominent hawkish DLC’er’s join the Republican party. A cohesive Libertarian caucus works to distinguish its message within the Republican tent."
NotherBob really nailed the outcome of this year's elections and the resulting "leadership" selections in a minority status (with Pogue a fairly close second), while Mike completely blew it and get's the "Oops" for this one. And no shark, no credit for 100% safe predictions. Oh, and RM? Close.

The Bush administration:
Rosensteel: "The Bush Administration will attempt to reinvent itself and reinvigorate the party. I expected this effort to be largely ineffective."

Shark: "Alito will be easily confirmed, giving Bush another victory and boost in the polls."

Retired Military: "Will continue to get hit by the media and the left for any stubbed toe. Bush will get 1 more Supreme court pick prior to year end."

Jon Henke: "The Bush administration will continue to disappoint the fiscal conservative/libertarian wing of the Right."

Mike: "Continues to target and kill identified terrorist cells world wide."

NotherBob: "BDS will peak in a formal move to impeach Bush and millions will be raised for the 08 campaign. The move will ultimately fizzle, but not before the money is raised."

AbuQa'Qa: "BDS: Now pathologically ingrained in MSM and the Dem party which will continue to alienate moderates in both parties. "

Unaha-closp: "The Bush administration - will continue to hold the path."

Pogue Mahone: "Will make William Jefferson Clinton’s misnomer “Slick Willie” look like a pin cushion as the recent scandals will slide off of their petroleum soaked hides. See War on Terror."

KyleN: "After another Heart Attack Dick Cheney steps down as VP and is replaced, in a surprise move, by David Gergan."
Tough one. Had to give it to Rosensteel by a nose over Jon Henke. The "Oops" goes to KyleN, but not by much over a couple of others which will remain unnamed.

Politics in general:
Rosensteel: "We will continue to plunge the nation into debt with little political action being taken to resolve the situation."

Retired Military: "Continue to sink into a morass of playing gotcha by both sides but the dems lead the charge on this."

Billy Hollis: "One of the side effects of continuing changes in the Middle East is a strong draft-Condi movement gets started in late 2006 or early 2007.

Jimmy Carter dies or becomes incapacitated, thus forcing retirement from the political scene of the highest ranking useful idiot in American history.

Education crawls back out from under the rocks to become a major issue in 2006. Everyone knows our educational system is a disgrace. This is the one area the Democrats think they might be able to convince people to spend more money on, so they want to talk about it. The Republicans are concerned about declining quality and indoctrination of students into leftist orthodoxy, so they’ll want to talk about it too. Problem is, none of them have the slightest idea what to do (except spend money), so the debate likely won’t go anywhere. Whichever side, if any, that has the guts to get out in front on school choice will gain serious political points."

Jon Henke: "The Libertarian Party will not win a single race at the State or National level."

Mike: "Democrats get crazier (and look more and more like they are really on the other side). Republicans continue to stand back and let the opposition party over reach."

NotherBob: "Politics – more of the same. Oh, the MSM will play it as reaching new highs and new lows, but basically, more of the same."

AbuQa'Qa: "Politics, no change in either party. No new ideas from dems, no ability to produce from pubs."

Unaha-closp: "Politicians in general - will be constrained to a pragmatic ideal of personal enrichment, politics will be incentive driven."

Pogue Mahone: "A mutual effort of both political parties to convince the American people that politicians are not miscreants will fail thanks to the individual efforts from members of both political parties."

SkyWatch: "What Libertarian org? the one that said war bad or the one that said war good?"
Jon wins this one with what many may say really was a safe prediction, but hey, it's a libertarian blog and it helps emphasize something we've been saying for ages. Abu was a very close second and SkyWatch third. Mike gets the "Oops". His prediction had some merit early in the year, but near election time the back half of it had gone to hell in the worst way.

Rosensteel: "2005 will have marked the ’peak’ in the rise of blogging, and 2006 will be more or less of the same. Not so much of a decline as a leveling off."

Shark: "Blogging- QandO expands it’s roster with the additions of Bithead and MKUltra to it’s blogging stable :)"

Retired Military: "Will continue to grow in popularity as make fools of the MSM."

Jon Henke: "The mainstream media will continue to cautiously embrance blogs, but they will be much more selective in doing so. The relationships will form between MSM outlets and bigger-name bloggers, with smaller bloggers being ignored."

Mike: "Blogging - breaks into the main stream as a legitiment form of journalism. One scandle of undue influence on a blog blown way out of proportion."

NotherBob: "Blogging will grow in credibility, with a blog being syndicated in newspapers. A liberal blog, of course."

AbuQa'Qa: "Will continue to grow, some big names will tire, some nonames will become big. Many more blogs, because of third world access. China, Iran, etc. will be frustrated in their desire to control the blogosphere."

"Blogging - is unprofitable as a distribution media, but has good potential to become a forum for sponsored messages."
All of these were interesting predictions and in many cases partially true. I thought Jon's best reflected the developments of the past year though. And shark, it's a good thing you put a smiley face on that prediction.

The Main Stream Media:
Retired Military: "Will continue to show more and more bias for the left as they try to cover up the good news out of the middle east and the left issues harsher rhetoric to counter that good news."

Billy Hollis: "2006 will be the year in which the newspapers finally face their decline. A vicious cycle (from their point of view) will occur as lowering circulation leads to lower ad revenues which leads to less staff and less quality content which leads to lower circulation... and the wheel will keep going around until they make a radical change or go out of business. One of the potential events that will precipitate the newspapers facing their fate is the withdrawal of movie ads by most of the major studios (that’s a very large chunk of newspaper advertising).

I expect we’ll see hand-wringing pieces on NBC News et. al. "How can we survive as a society without these important news-gathering operations!!", etc. There will be calls in the left for various forms of subsidy "to preserve our freedom of the press!!" NPR will be cited as the ideal model. Republicans will publicly nod their heads and look sad and privately say "serves them right" and will therefore block any nutball ideas that get floated. The only proposals that gain traction will be calls to regulate online content, because of the equal opportunity nature of online ridicule of politicians. Leftist websites will finally have some value as they become critical to the blocking of such proposals."

Mike: "The Mainstream Media - continues to lose subscribers / views. Only a matter of time until advertisers start pulling ads."

NotherBob: "MSM will continue the downward spiral in all areas."

Mike: "Led by the NY Times, the MSM will loudly begin the Bush as "Lame Duck" meme in earnest well before the mid-term elections. As a corallary, the MSM will also begin the "Bush’s Negative Legacy" meme"

AbuQa'Qa: "MSM: Taking on serious water, little hope for staying afloat. Will make a future comeback but only after salvage operations have retrieved the hulk."

Unaha-closp: "The Main Stream Media - in America seems to be woefully out of touch with a lot of Americans and will need a more sympathetic slant to gain sales."

Pogue Mahone: "The Main Stream Media – The FREE MARKET INDUSTRY that is the MSM, in effort to attract and retain revenue, will continue to gratify conservatives by going out of their way to offer “both sides” of a particular story even if there is only one side, the reasonable one (case in point: intelligent design), much to the enjoyment of David Brock’s professional career. The MSM will abide to dower itself as a patsy for the likes of Limbaugh, Hannity, O’Reilly, and other red herring anglers. Also, no matter what it does, the MSM will continue to upset McQ, much to my enjoyment.;)"
I thought Abu's was closest to the present situation among many good predictions. Well, except Pogue's. And he gets the "Oops" for much the same reason shark got it last time, smiley face and all. Thanks for the "claryfication", Pogue. ;)

People were getting tired of predicting at this point last year, so we got fewer and fewer (and shorter and shorter) predictions on some of the last topics:

The Anti-War movement:
Retired Military: "The Anti-War movement - Will continue to flounder into inconsequalness."

Mike: "The Anti-War movement - Who? Ah, yes - continues down the road to ineffective anonymity."

NotherBob: "The anti-war movement will make headlines as we spar with Syria. Moving our troops to Syria instead of Kuwait will merit serious consideration. Ooops, guess that belongs in the next section. Oh well."

AbuQa'Qa: "Anti-war Movement will continue to demonstrate not even a remote sense of what is really going on in the world. Heads firmly planted in anus."

Unaha-closp: "The Anti-War movement - is a horrible thing to be associated with politically. It will be ditched as Dem platform after defeat in 2006."

Pogue Mahone: "The Anti-War movement – Is winning."
OK, I'm not sure whether "inconsequalness" is a word, but I know what RM means and mostly agree. Unlike Pogue I don't think it is the anti-war movement that is "winning". I think it is the anti-incompetence movement that is gaining steam. And Notherbob, in an ironic act of real prediction, put "Oops" in his and thus took the "Oops" award for this category.

The Middle East:
Shark: "The Middle East— Israel will do what needs to be done regarding Iran. Asaad Jr. in Syria is going to establish himself even more firmly on our shit list."

Bithead: "The Palestinians, having had their support from Saddam removed, will at last run out of steam, and will be forced to be more agreeable at the bargaining table. At some point in 2006, someone’s going to notice that removing Saddam from Iraq worked out to be a serious kick in the ass for the peace process on the West Bank. This will be slow in coming because that would mean someone actually admitting Saddam was in fact supporting terrorism."

Retired Military: "The Middle East - Israel will bomb Iran nuclear facilities."

Mike: "Israel completes the wall and cuts all relations with the Palestinian ’state’. Palestine implodes and begins a year long civil war."

SkyWatch: "Iran plays a game of stall then hide and seek."

Unaha-closp: "Israel will attack Iran and successfully destroy the nuclear facilities. Iran will induce Hamas and Hezbollah to increase attacks on Israel. Iraq will become a regional player again with a functional and blooded army."

Pogue Mahone: "The Middle East – Six to one, half dozen to the other."


Steve: "The Palestinian Authority steps up to the plate (finally), and with Jordanian, American and British help, sweeps the terrorists from Palestine. Peace ensues."

SkyWatch: "The palestian problem will get alot worse in next year and solve itself when they learn they will die."

Steve: "Iran is brought before the U.N. Security Council for violating its NPT obligations."
Andrew Swanson's shouted prediction was by far the "Oops" of this group, and managed to be wrong both domestically and internationally. Steves's "peace ensues" wasn't that far behind followed closely by Bithead's prediction. Interestingly Steve also took the best with his Iran prediction - something which just played out this past week in the UNSC. Heh ... pretty close call, Steve.

Radical Islam:
Rosensteel: "Radical Islam will continue to decline. Not so much because of the efforts of the war on terror, but because of the continued drive towards liberalization among many young Muslim populations. (Look mostly towards Jordan, Egypt, and Lebanon. Iran is a wildcard here.)"

Retired Military: "Radical Islam - Will continue its destructive course."

Mike: "Radical Islam - becomes more radical. No ’moderate’ Muslims step forward to stop the madness. Outside chance Saudi Arabia attempts to form the Islamic equivalent to the Vatican, and fails to find broad acceptance."

NotherBob: "I don’t know enough about radical Islam to even comment. Since the Republicans need them in order to raise money, their threat will undoubtedly get worse."

AbuQa'Qa: "Radical Islam has a few more years to continue its vile deeds. No real hope of reestablishing the caliphate, so failure is in the cards but not before millions of innocents and jihadis die. Muslim women will be the key to its eventual demise."

Unaha-closp: "Radical Islam - will grow as a result of the billions spent by Saudi Arabia to form maddrassa and pay Immams to preach hatred worldwide, Saudi Islamofacism will continue to be protected by America, America will continue to blame France."

Pogue Mahone: "Radical Islam – Yeah, your guess is as good as mine."
Frankly I though NotherBob nailed it. That's not to say the threat isn't there or that it isn't lethal, but it may not be as large a threat as we think. Secondly I liked his "I don't know that much about radical Islam" admission especially in light of the Sylvestre Reyes interview when it was revealed that NotherBob isn't the only one ignorant of that group.

The "Oops"? Had to go to Pogue. No Pogue, my guess is infinitely superior to yours. Heh ...

Last but not least some miscellaneous predictions that I thought interesting:
Shark: "The UN— Kofi will be plagued with even more scandal. The UN will fail miserably to cope with the relief effort for the next natural disaster."

Billy Hollis: "Online technology -

A trend will be noticed (though it’s been going on in embryonic form for a while) concerning the next generation of changes in usage of the Internet (some early pundits are calling it Web 2.0). More distributed systems with more peer-to-peer capabilities will be introduced, and we’ll start to see software for users move beyond the clunky browser-based systems we currently use. One of the eventual byproducts of this revolution (though it will take a few years) is the elimination of most spam, as peer-to-peer capabilities allow authentication of email.


The crescendo of punditry predicting the rise of China in the 21st century will crest just as it becomes obvious that China does not have the political, legal, or cultural infrastructure to handle being a major economic power.


Economic news in Germany and France continues to get worse. The EU Constitution becomes a dead letter and the EU "government" starts to get ignored by others on the continent as they realize that if they don’t, then they are playing the part of the suckers who will have to bail out those old-Europe welfare states.

The first laws specifically addressing Muslim immigration and assimilation begin to be introduced and discussed in European states. (The laws may not have the word "Muslim" in them, but their intent will be clear.) Those first proposed laws will be weak and ineffectual, and will nevertheless likely cause civil unrest.

Hunches next...

Hillary does something really stupid during her senatorial campaign that damages her chances to win the presidential nomination. She’s gone so long without a mistake, mostly by keeping her mouth shut, that I think she’s due. When she starts talking to leftist audiences during the campaign, her true inclinations are likely to come out a few times."

Jon Henke: "China will remain an enigma. But they will continue to obtain leverage in the form of economic ties around the world.

Russia will make overtures to democracy. But they won’t really mean it."

Mike: "Movies- The poor box office done by Brokeback Mountain will be blamed on the teeming masses of homophobic Red Staters."

NotherBob: "Someone will start a straw poll on the internet, with promised safeguards to make it credible, and it will have a surprisingly strong effect on the pre-primary process to select presidential candidates."

Steve: "The domestic housing boom ends with a light sigh as the market gently shifts investment capital into other assets. The NYT’s Paul Krugman suffers indigestion on the news."

SkyWatch: "Interest rates rise it end and falls..(the feds all ways late to the show)."

KyleN: "After three new prominent left wing political movies fail at the box office George Clooney loses it at an awards show and calls the American Public "Little Eichmans". Maureen Dowd and Lawrence ODonnel write columns explaining why he is right.

In a pathetic attempt to capture the past, lefty artists and moviemakers create a remake of "Alice’s Restaurant". Twenty something’s everywhere are heard saying Arlo Who?

Chris Matthew’s giant pink head explodes on camera.
For some reason I was really hoping the last one would come true. Ah well it's been quite a year.

Stay tuned for a chance to do your 2007 predictions and be aware, results will be used in ways offensive to all.

Happy New Year!
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Previous Comments to this Post 

Thanks for compiling the data McQ.

Not too shabby if I do say so myself. You seem to disagree,
Pogue Mahone: "Radical Islam – Yeah, your guess is as good as mine."
The "Oops"? Had to go to Pogue. No Pogue, my guess is infinitely superior to yours. Heh ...
I’m not so sure about that, boss.
Judging by the tally:
Iraq - check
The War on Terror - check
Democratic leadership - check
Republican leadership - check
The Bush administration - check
Politics in general - check
The Main Stream Media - check
The Anti-War movement - check

Okay, so maybe that last one is arguable. As what is the definition of "movement"? If one defines it as bongo drumming "hippies" protesting, then yeah as they really don’t "win" anything. Also, if one were to lump anyone who is/was against the war into one large entity, then it would be hard to sum their collective objectives. However, if one were to consider the end results of a population now against the war, then one could easily define it as "winning". But as a group, or entity, their message alone could never be "winning" without the help of an incompetent execution.

So, I would be open to consider it a "wash".

But counting the tally, it seems that my predictions, or "guesses" if you will, were pretty good.
You can now call me PogueThe SwamiMahone.
(where are your predictions, by the way?)

Additionally, in defense of most of us who predicted that the GOP would retain congress, who would have thought the Republicans would have stumbled so badly?

I firmly believe that scandals and charges of corruption alone would not have caused the beating they took in the midterms. And although the Dems mounted decent campaigns, it took the constant unwaivering support for the administration’s denial of regress in Iraq that caused their demise.
If Republicans would have accepted the need for change, and not repeated the same tired old platitudes like "cut and run" or "stay the course", they would have had a much better chance of retaining power. Also, if the administration would have shown a willingness to change course (like firing Rumsfeld earlier), GOP corruption would have barely registered on the concern of voters.

Thanks again, McQ, for the read. It was interesting to see which one of us made good predictions (ME) and which one of us did not (Umm... you guys).

Athbhliain Faoi Mhaise! (Happy New Year!)
Written By: PogueMahone (a.k.a. TheSwami)
Thanks again, McQ, for the read. It was interesting to see which one of us made good predictions (ME) and which one of us did not (Umm... you guys).
Quit dreamin’ Pogue. Heck most of what you put up there was so general it would have been true about anything. "Six to one, half dozen to another"? Reminiscient of shark’s "Howard Dean will say something stupid".

And the anti-war movement thing ... pfffffft.

Your best shot was the Democratic leadership thingie and everyone here knows it wasn’t even a SWAG, it was a WAG.

MSM? That’s not a prediction, it was a statement of what was going on ... when you wrote it.


Listen, don’t quit your day job for the Swami’s turban, ok?
Written By: McQ

However I do have one small quibble;

Let’s recall what I said about Iraq:
"The battle in Iraq, which is only a part of the war on Terror, will be winding down, as the terrorists try other, easier-to-attack areas of the world to ply their trade.
It has in fact ramped down over MOST of the country... and only remains in the Triangle.

And for the second half of myoriginal statement, we see that coming true, today...
MOGADISHU, Somalia — Islamic fighters attempting to wrest power from Somalia’s internationally recognized government retreated from the main front line early Tuesday, witnesses said, a day after Ethiopian fighter jets bombed the country’s two main international airports.
Some, I’m sure will argue that this has been a long term thing in Somalia, but I note with interest the timing involved... Islamic efforts have been racheting up in that area of late, as the Iraq/Afghan situation has gone on. Seems to me a re-directed effort.

I would request a review of the data with an eye toward scoring a half-point ( large grin)

Written By: Bithead
URL: http://
OK ... half point awarded.
Written By: McQ
I think that it should be admitted that this wasn’t so much a "Predict what will appen in 12 months game" as a "Predict what McQ will think is happening or has happened in 12 months game". The only quantifiably verifiable "prediction" is the midterm results, which, not surprisingly, everyone here seems to have been wrong about.
Written By: Badger
URL: http://
"Predict what McQ will think is happening or has happened in 12 months game".
OK, if that makes you happy, Badger. Of course it could also be me having a little fun with some of our regular commenters.
The only quantifiably verifiable "prediction" is the midterm results, which, not surprisingly, everyone here seems to have been wrong about.
Well see, there you’re wrong and the midterms didn’t turn out as I thought or wanted them too boot.

Henke said they’d gain substantially in both chambers of Congress (the did) and NotherBob said they’d do that as well but not get enough to have real power (which may be true, we’ll see).
Written By: McQ
McQ: I don’t think I’m wrong that the midterms prediction "winner" misses the mark as far as being an accurate prediction of the results. While, it’s not as completely wrong as its competition, the prediction is pretty vague about what "large gains" means. I take the prediction to mean that democrats would come close to obtaining majorities, but fall short. Controlling the U.S. House of Representatives and/or the U.S. Senate still constitutes "real power" right?

One thing I am wrong about is that for Iraq, Shark made a specific, provable, prediction that he was completely right about.
Written By: Badger
URL: http://
I don’t think I’m wrong that the midterms prediction "winner" misses the mark as far as being an accurate prediction of the results.
I’m not saying you are, Badger ... what I’m saying is this is mostly for fun.
Written By: McQ
I actually got one right? Wow....never could’ve predicted that!

Written By: shark
URL: http://
It has in fact ramped down over MOST of the country... and only remains in the Triangle.
Like the majority of your predictions, that is false. There is a significant level of violence outside the Sunni triangle, although it is not the Sunni/Shiite/insurgent fighting.

Even were it not so, arguing that the violence is mostly inside the triangle isn’t something you ought to brag about. Inside the Sunni triangle are the major population and government centers of the country.
Written By: Jon Henke
The level of violence outside the triangle isn’t nearly what it was a couple of years ago. Even the Democrats have started to admit that point, though apparently the American press has not as yet. And perhaps that enters into part of this; we’re making judgments based on what the American press is telling us. And yet the military advisers and troops coming out of the placer giving a completely different picture, and are shocked when they see what the press is been telling us about events they lived through.

Written By: Bithead
URL: http://
The level of violence outside the triangle isn’t nearly what it was a couple of years ago. Even the Democrats have started to admit that point, though apparently the American press has not as yet. And perhaps that enters into part of this; we’re making judgments based on what the American press is telling us. And yet the military advisers and troops coming out of the placer giving a completely different picture, and are shocked when they see what the press is been telling us about events they lived through.
From the Sydney Morning Herald:
MANY prisoners at a Basra police station blown up by British troops showed signs of torture, a spokesman for British forces in Iraq said.

About 1000 British and Iraqi troops raided the Jamiat police station in the southern city on Monday, killing seven gunmen and taking custody of more than 100 prisoners who were believed to have been marked for execution by a renegade police unit.

Signs of torture included cigarette and electrical burns, gunshot wounds in the legs and knees, and hands that had been crushed, the British said.

The targeted squad, known as the serious crimes unit,"was in fact living up to its name", Captain Tane Dunlop said. "It was conducting serious crimes rather than preventing [them]."
BTW, Bithead, Sydney is in Australia.

So the Iraqi police are torturing their fellow Iraqis and engaging in extra-judical killings on a massive scale. 100 prisoners were marked for death. On one day. In one police station.

Good thing we got rid of Saddam’s torture rooms.

1000 troops going into battle against the local authorities? So tell, me Bithead, 2 years ago were we razing police stations in the so-called quiet South?

When you will stop lying?

Written By: mkultra
URL: http://
Umn, MK?

You may not know this, but the MSH has been all over John Howard for his support of GWB. Not exactly an unbiased source.

Written By: Bithead
URL: http://
Notice that as usual, MK doesn’t participate, he only criticizes.
Written By: McQ
Umn, MK?

You may not know this, but the MSH has been all over John Howard for his support of GWB. Not exactly an unbiased source.
Facts have a bias? Since when? So what part of the story wasn’t true? The tortured prisoners? The official rationale from the British government?

If you noted, the portion of the story I quoted was sourced to official British government sources.

Oh I get it. The British government is biased against, wait for it .... the British government.

You are so far gone, you don’t even believe official spokespersons from our chief ally.

Tell you what. Find a version that you believe is unbiased. The world has thousands of media outlets. Find just one that you think presents an accurate picture,as opposed to the portion I quoted.

But this is the best line. From the BBC:
A British officer said the destruction of the base has made Basra safer.
Destroying the police station made Basra safer.

We didn’t have to destroy the village to save it. Only that part of it that was specifically designed to house the people who are supposed to be keeping it safe.
Notice that as usual, MK doesn’t participate, he only criticizes
Yes, I know, McQ. Pointing to facts that challenge the established orthodoxy around here (e.g., Bush is a good leader, invading Iraq was a good idea, staying there with no serious strategy to change things is the way to go) counts as criticism around here.

Well then call me a critic.
Written By: mkultra
URL: http://
MK is right, Bithead is wrong. It wouldn’t kill you to give him some credit, Q.

Here, I’ll demonstrate: I thought these predictions were pretty amusing. You did a good job keeping your preferences to humorous asides and basing the selections on genuine reality.

High fives. Side of mild condescension ;-) just for fun.

Written By: glasnost
URL: http://
MK is right, Bithead is wrong. It wouldn’t kill you to give him some credit, Q.
I said nothing about right and wrong ... I said, as usual MK’s only contribution is criticism.

He didn’t participate, didn’t put his predictions up for others to review, simply came in and criticized. Fact or fiction?
Written By: McQ
Well then call me a critic.
Put your money where your mouth is and leave your 2007 predictions in the appropriate post. You’re always going on about how right you are about everything ... show us.

10 to 1 it never happens.
Written By: McQ
Facts have a bias?
Of course they do. Facts are seldom UNbiased, in fact. But that’s fodder for another discussion. For the time being, when you get to dealing with facts, lemme know, OK?

Hint: HAs the AP been biased in it’s biased, anti-American reportage in Iraq, which has since been proven as fabrication? Do you really figure the Sydney paper immune from such bias?

Written By: Bithead
URL: http://
And by the way, MK, I’ll see your Sydney Paper, and raise you the NY Post, in the form of Amir Taheri, who says in part:

WHILE the American political elite is using Iraq as an ex cuse for fighting internal political wars, a different reality is taking shape in parts of this war-torn nation. Wherever some measure of security is assured - that is to say in more than 80 percent of Iraq - towns and villages long left to die a slow death are creeping back to life.
Don Singleton confirms, saying
Amir Taheri wrote in New York Post When the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank reported two years ago that the Iraqi economy was heading for a boom, skeptics dismissed it as misplaced optimism. Now, however, even some of those who opposed the toppling of Saddam Hussein admit that many Iraqis share that optimism. Newsweek has just hailed the emergence of a booming market economy in Iraq as “the mother of all surprises,” noting that “Iraqis are more optimistic about the future than most Americans are.”
So tell us, MK, when are you going to stop your distortions?
Point, set, match, Bithead.

Written By: Bithead
URL: http://

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