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2007 Predictions: How the world will turn - we think
Posted by: McQ on Tuesday, December 26, 2006

*** Bumped to the top to give our commenters one more chance to add their predictions to the mix. More recent content below this post***
OK prognosticators. No time like the present to begin with the 2007 predictions. You can see a review of this year's predictions below (and Pogue's bellyaching in the comment section). This year lots of topics and issues, but don't feel compelled to leave a prediction for each unless so moved.

Oh, a reminder:
Prediction

Foretelling of a future event. Predictions are probabilistic estimates of future occurrences based upon many different estimation methods, including past patterns of occurrence and statistical projections of current data.
Fortelling of a future event. And stay away from the easy ones ("Democratic leadership: Howard Dean will say something stupid" - yeah shark that one is on you).

So, issues and topics for the predictors this year. Don't feel constrained by my questions, predict what you wish:

Foreign Affairs:

  • Iraq - Direction?

  • Iran - Become nuke power? Will sanctions be enforced and if so to what effect?

  • North Korea - Will they try to sell nukes? Outcome of 6 party talks?

  • Afghanistan - Heading toward collapse or will it survive the threat of a resurgent Taliban?

  • China - Continue to grow economically or run into growth problems?

  • Russia - Continue its drift toward totalitariansim? Why?

  • Europe - Take steps to curb muslim immigration and influence? What?

  • Middle East - Any radical changes foreseen? Alliances?

  • Islam - Changes? Moderation? Increased radicalization?


Politics:

International:

  • UN- UN able to enforce sanctions on Iran? Will it remain ineffective or will new Sec Gen be able to change that? Darfur? Somolia?

  • Environment - Any movement in the international environmental movement? In what direction?

  • Economy - see the world economy growing, shrinking, stagnating? Why?


Domestic:

  • Immigration - Any answers this year? Bush team up with Dems? Fence?

  • Health Care - Any movement toward a more consumer oriented system or a single-payer government system?

  • Social Security - Continue to ignore it or actually confront its problems?

  • Environment - Any progress on environmental agenda?

  • Congress - Predictions about the Democratic control of congress? Budget and Spending - More? Less? About the same? Laws, investigations and various other possibilities? Real ethics reform in Congress or lip service.

  • Supreme Court - Any new nominees? How many and who? Chances of getting out of committee?

  • '08 Presidential contenders - See anyone begin to emerge from the pack? Who?

  • Economy - Growth, recession? Which sectors are going to be strong? Housing going to collapse?

  • National Security - Changes? Threats?


Blogging: Consolidation? Commercialization? Improvements?

Culture:

  • On-line culture - what's the next YouTube?

  • Culture in general - what's the next big cultural trend?

Miscellaneous - anything at all you feel requires a good prediction, like MK ever recovering from the worst case of BDS ever recorded?

OK, that's enough to get you cranked up and started. I'll be popping this back to the top at various times to solicit predictions as we head toward 2007. And feel free to add to them over time since there's nothing that says you can only leave one comment. Comments will close, however, after 30 days.
 
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On the Middle East and the War Muslim Radicals- Turkey and Saudi Arabia are going to be heard more from this coming year. Turkey probably not in a good way. Africa will continue to be ramped up in the war but they will use Turkey to peck away at us from a new direction.
 
Written By: SkyWatch
URL: http://
Iraq - after the misnamed "surge" operation fails to quell the violence, Iraq will continue its downward spiral into chaos, drawing more and more attention from its neighbors. Some heretofore unknown scandal involving the Iraq war will be uncovered by Congressional investigations, causing support for it to collapse to the point that forces GWB to begin to withdraw U.S. troops, but he will refuse to get them all out otherwise we will have "lost" (~80,000 troops will remain at year end).

Iran - will not become a nuclear power and sanctions will be inconsistently enforced until their collapse. They will intervene more brazenly in Iraq as our presence declines.

Social Security - will remain untouched, although Medicare will get some attention.

’08 Presidential contenders - Bush’s refusal to completely withdraw from Iraq will doom GOP candidates to consistently poll behind their Democratic counterparts for the last six months of the year, causing widespread panic in the party’s power centers, but nothing get’s through to change Bush’s mind.
 
Written By: Ugh
URL: http://
Crazy prediction: the price of oil will collapse unexpectedly, which will cause numerous effects throughout the world, not all of them necessarily good in the short term. The collapse will be due to new fields, cheaper methods of pumping from older fields, speculators getting caught overlong in the market, and slowing demand as the global economy cools somewhat.

On global warming: a scandal will erupt regarding doctored research in a major study claiming to demonstrate AGW effects. This will most likely happen in the UK, where a generation of politicians and bureaucrats in all major UK parties have hitched their careers to greenism. Kyoto continues to be ignored and its disassembly proceeds. Al Gore keeps proclaiming global gloom and doom in the midst of record cold snaps.

2008: Obama’s flash in the pan burns out, and the Hillarybeast cements herself as the undisputed frontrunner long before the Iowa caucuses. On the R’s side, Giuliani and McCain become the two to beat, with Romney a distant third. Romney looks more and more like a VP candidate...

SS/Medicare: this can gets kicked down the road for another year, as does any significant efforts at tax reform and pork elimination.

Foreign affairs: Sleeper prediction: something nasty happens in Venezuela, and, in a surprise for Americans who haven’t been paying attention, China gets quickly and heavily involved, as does Iran.

Afghanistan: stays basically the same. The Taliban capture a town or two and hold it for a day or two and withdraw after extreme losses. The MSM screeches that Afghanistan is collapsing, but somehow it doesn’t.

Housing: bubble ends with a whimper and not a bang, except in a few areas like southern California. RE investors look for cashflow, not appreciation...

 
Written By: Foobarista
URL: http://
Congress:

One major democratic figure will succumb to friendly fire in the Democrats’ ethics investigations, before their political survival instincts regain control and the ethics reform efforts are sent to various committees to die, away from the public eye.

Blogging:

The blogosphere will establish a beachhead in the living room as the first really effective devices marrying the TV to the internet appear.

The blogs that best exploit the new interactive TV audience will see their value skyrocket.

Trolls will gain new powers when an enterprising programmer figures out how to incorporate the Nintendo WII controller into blog comments.

Immigration:

Stories in the MSM about ’racist’, ’violent’, ’unlawful’, ’anti-immigrant’ groups will increase greatly as the ground is prepared for New and Improved! Comprehensive Immigration Reform.

Iran:

Having too many irons in the fire, Iran will suffer an embarrassing debacle in foreign affairs due to overreach

Russia:

One former Soviet Republic will see a change in government due in large part to their dependence on Russian energy supplies coupled with Russian actions to exploit that dependency.
 
Written By: FRNM
URL: http://

Bruce has been playing this Predictions game for couple of years now, and it’s mildly amusing so I’ll give it a shot, again.


*Iraq- Direction:


Now that the Democrats have their way and have power to enforce their misbegotten policies, this has no place to go but down, assuming it moves at all. I actually think that it will end up being pretty much a stalemate over the next two years. What improvements happen will be relatively offset by the Arabs in the region mistrusting America and whether not it’s left wing is going to take over completely the government and the policy that affects their lives so greatly. If we hadn’t tried to placate them in the first place this would even be an issue. As it is ...


* Iran - Become nuke power? Will sanctions be enforced and if so to what effect?


* North Korea - Will they try to sell nukes? Outcome of 6 party talks?


Unquestionably Iran will become a nuclear power. And because even if we manage to take out thier refinement ability, we will find that North Korea has been selling them to Iran. The six party talks will work exactly as North Korea designed them; as a distraction from it’s other activity... such as weapons production for rouge states such as Iran and Syria.


* Afghanistan - Heading toward collapse or will it survive the threat of a resurgent Taliban?


Afghanistan will survive, but whether not they thrive depends on early on what happens in Iran. How much money, and muscle Iran can bring to keeping the Islamo fascist movement going in Afghanistan, remains to be seen. Without any major change in the power structure and Iran, Afghanistan will survive but won’t make much progress.


* China - Continue to grow economically or run into growth problems?


Even as they’ve been growing they’ve been running into growth problems. The two rather go hand in hand, particularly for a centrally dictated economy. What’s keeping them going at the moment and historically over the last twenty years are so is the huge influx of western cash. The question is whether not they would survive that cash being cut off either by a policy change, or by recession here in the west, or both.


* Russia - Continue its drift toward totalitariansim? Why?


Yes. As to why I would think that to be blatantly obvious; its centralized government is being threatened by freedom more so, even, than the Chinese at the moment. Totalitarianism is a knee jerk reaction for such governments.


* Europe - Take steps to curb muslim immigration and influence? What?


They will try, but I fear it to be too late for them. I said so a year ago during the riots in France. I see nothing to change that perception.


* Middle East - Any radical changes foreseen? Alliances?


This one’s difficult; Iran, certainly has the possibility of coming to grips with itself and an almost livable government. I suppose that a transition from what they have now to almost livable is an improvement. That having been said, there’s still Syria to deal with. The real issue though, is not whose running each country, but the cultural dynamics involved. Those trends send alliances , and for that matter just about any other governmental influence . Which is a nice segue to:


* Islam - Changes? Moderation? Increased radicalization? changes?


In the religion itself? I don’t think so. In the how the religion is perceived by its adherents? Well, that, perhaps is another matter. My read is that it’s about an even split between those who will become more moderate, and those who will become more radical. And unless the ones that are more radical will become more desperate and more violent, while the ones who were becoming more moderate will be less so. Guess who’s going to win that battle?


* UN- UN able to enforce sanctions on Iran? Will it remain ineffective or will new Sec Gen be able to change that? Darfur? Somolia?


A change at the head isn’t going to change a damn thing. There is too much in the way of incompetence spread through the organization, to say nothing of corruption, for it to be useful. I call it about a 50/50 shot that they will be able to enforce sanctions on Iran, but it’s a sure bet that either way it’s not going to bring that errant dog to heel. They will be equally effective elsewhere in the world.


* Environment - Any movement in the international environmental movement?


Since the concept of global warming is every bit as much a religion as Islam is, look at my answer above about Islam and make the translation. The religion won’t change, how that religion is perceived by its adherents is another matter, and it will be about an even split between those who will become more moderate and those who will become more radical the ones were more radical will probably end up become more violent than they have been, and start burning live things down as opposed to simply burning down buildings and SUV’s.


* Economy - see the world economy growing, shrinking, stagnating? Why?

Shrinking. As to why... the increased reliance on socialist policy.


* Immigration - Any answers this year? Bush team up with Dems? Fence?


There is an unquestionable historical pattern, here. The last thing the Democrats want to do is actually solve a problem. To do so is to allow the horse to eat the string carrot... at which point, the horse stops moving. Or in the case of Democrat rank and file, the Democrat voters stop supporting Democrats. They know they can maintain power longer, if they simply mollify the right noises at the proper times, and be completely ineffective in solving the problems they claim to care about so deeply.


*Health Care - Any movement toward a more consumer oriented system or a single-payer government system?


Same answer as above. Oh, the democrats will be making significantly more noise about it now that they have the bully pulpit. But that’ll be about the size of it.


* Social Security - Continue to ignore it or actually confront its problems?


Same answer. In this case, the fact remains, that the only way the democrats can see to solve the problem is to spend more money on it, which is certainly going to lose them votes. Meantime, the republicans are going to be playing the part of the little Dutch boy plugging the holes in the dike.. as I pointed up Jeff Sessions as doing. This isn’t going anywhere.


* Environment - Any progress on environmental agenda?


Since this global warming thing as a total farce, one would hope not. But you know as well as I do that they are going to lay additional regulations on already beleaguered American automobile manufacturers. After all, it’s "for the children"


* Congress - Predictions about the Democratic control of congress? Budget and Spending - More? Less? About the same? Laws, investigations and various other possibilities? Real ethics reform in Congress or lip service.


Are you kidding? These are Democrats, after all. Budget and spending cuts? Forget about it, unless you’re talking about the military. Let’s remember the only thing they cut under the Clinton administration was in fact, the military. Carter, too. Yes, they will try to investigate and possibly impeach Mr. Bush. As for real ethics reform, come and ask me that question after they remove John Murtha from office. (And, just as a toss in, no I don’t think the democrats are going to try to remove John Murtha from office. Nor will they, without some serious help from republicans. But I don’t see that happening, either. The obvious answer is, there are any simply paying lip service to ethics. And I don’t expect that to change.


* Supreme Court - Any new nominees? How many and who? Chances of getting out of committee?


New nominees, depends on who decides to kick in the next two years. As to getting out of committee, see also: snowball, hell. Unless of course, Lincoln Chafee or someone of the like decides he likes robes.


* ’08 Presidential contenders - See anyone begin to emerge from the pack? Who?


The only guarantee I can make you here, is that the current frontrunners, will be by this time next year.


* Economy - Growth, recession? Which sectors are going to be strong? Housing going to collapse?


A recession... which will be directly tied to a Democrat tax increase. By the facts, not by the news media. And certainly, (chuckle) not by the Democrats, or their supporters.


* National Security - Changes? Threats?


American interests will be attacked over the next two years. You can count on it. *


* Blogging: Consolidation? Commercialization? Improvements?


Blogger will be folded up into some other org, possibly connected with YOU Tube.


Final protections:


1: after one year of Democrat rule of Congress, one one, mind... America will wonder how the hell they manage to get themselves into that mess, and will start working their way out for day reversal of fortunes in ’08.


2: The price of oil will remain fairly steady, and perhaps rise marginally, once the world oil suppliers realize that with the democrats in power, our chances of actually getting on a serious drilling binge are about zero.

 
Written By: Bithead
URL: http://
Well I got hammered pretty hard on most of my 2006 predictions lets see how I do this year.
———————
Foreign Affairs:
Iraq - Number of troops in Iraq at the end of the year will be within 10,000 of the current number. Probably less but maybe more.

Iran - Israel will bomb Iranian nuclear facilities (0 for 1 on this one so will try again).

North Korea - Kim Jong Il will not last out the year.

Afghanistan - Will be stronger at the end of the year against radical muslim forces.

China - Chinese economy will stall due to problems it gets into with North Korea stability.

Russia - Political unrest due to poor economy and harsh winter.

Europe - Major terrorist attack(s) will cause curbs in Islamic immigration and the way Europeans deal with islamic terrorism. Chirac will fade into obscurity and off the world stage.

Middle East - Israel will bomb Iranian nuclear facilities. President of Iran assassinated. Syrian president will be replaced as well.

Islam - After major terrorist attacks more peaceful muslims will start to reject the more radical leaders.

Politics:
— International:

UN- the new secratary general will establish himself as someone that wont deal with rogue states like Kofi Annan did. Look for more aggressive measures to enforce UN resolutions.

Environment - Al Gore and the enviromental movement will still be hailed in the press but still make numerous Major but wrong predictions.

Economy - The US economy will slow down and with it most of the rest of the world. This will hit China hard. Uncertainty in the Middle east and terrorist attacks in Europe will spike oil. NK situation will detorirate which will cause more problems for China.

— Domestic:

Immigration - Fence will not go up. Bush and the dems will pass sweeping immigration reforms giving away the baby and the bath water to the open borders crowd. At least 3 million more mexicans will cross the border this year. ICE will continue the "show" catch and release raids.

Health Care - Hillary will stay away from this issue like the plague and no reporter will ask her. McCain will push for more govt controlled health care.

Social Security - No movement on the 600 lb gorilla. No legislation and congress will do zip. Plan on McCain, Gore and others trying to break away from the pack to mention it but absolutely no details other than maybe Gore’s lockbox. Count on the crisis to get much worse once Immigration reform kicks in and about 1 million new folks go on the rolls of Social security recipients. Dems will work to raise taxes to cover the short fall.

Environment - Dems will pass antibusiness laws in the name of the enviroment which will hurt the economy. Watch for Gore to call for passing the Kyoto accords.

Congress - More spending than ever before. Some cuts in the military and more give me programs. Dems will justify it by saying the "children" have been neglected for the past 6 years in favor of big business and big oil.

Supreme Court - One new supreme court justice. I predict Janice Rogers Brown. The dems will howl like no tomorrow. The MSM will talk about the will of the people but she will be approved because noone wants to vote against the first African AMerican female supreme court justice especially after the last 2 picks were white men.

’08 Presidential contenders - McCain will get baptized by the press (if he actually gets the nomination in 08 and then ripped apart) but will be behind the suprise front runner - Condi. Edwards, Gore, and Kerry, wont last out the year. Kerry will be the first to bow out.

Economy - Oil business will slump due to spike in prices. A slow down heading for recession by the end of the year. Top gas prices for the year. $3.30 + average.

National Security - Dems will continue to leak secrets to the MSM to make the Bush administration look bad. Look for at least 2 indictments of Bush administration personnel from Conyers and crowd.

Blogging: Dems will try to pass laws to halt influence of blogs vs their partners in Crime the MSM.

Culture - Count on more antiChristian lawsuits especially around Easter and Christmas. The Easter Bunny will be banned in at least one city as offensive.

MISC

In 2008 the following figures will die.

Osama Bin Laden
Castro (His brother will not last 3 months as head of Cuba)
Saddam Hussein (big shocker there)
One Supreme Court Justice (probably Souter).
At least 2 heads of AQ in Iraq.
Kim Jong Il

My pet prediction:

Cheney will resign due to health reasons. Condi will be Bush’s pick as VP which will install her as front runner. McCain will be fit to be tied. The press will support McCain due to Bush "stabbing a loyal supporter of the President in the back".
 
Written By: retired military
URL: http://
CIA... or rather the petty factions within that continually pound their chests in righteous indignation (via leaks of course, pounding their chests in an open forum would likely land them in jail) every time their brilliant opinions were not heeded and history prove them to have been correct. They are, of course silent far more frequently because their opinions and analysis are just wrong.

This will not change. (same for State Dept.)
 
Written By: bains
URL: http://
oh, and there is a volcanic event in the lower Cascades (Oregon or NoCal); the Airbus super jumbo finally makes it off the production line but is a economic failure as a passenger carrier; and the Cubs do not win the World Series;
 
Written By: bains
URL: http://
In the spirit of “it could happen but I hope not” let’s try this:

Iraq: Shiites will emerge, consolidate power, and Sunni Arabs will retreat from Baghdad ending the experiment in democracy.

Iran & North Korea: Iran will buy nuke from North Korea

Afghanistan: Forces within Pakistan’s government will resume their support for Taliban insurgents

China: economic progress ends because of disruption in oil supplies in the Middle East

Russia: will aid Iran to keep us busy and take another stab at the Ukraine.

Europe: only cosmetic changes to immigration

Islam: fundamentalism continues to sweep Muslim countries as moderates are intimidated into silence.

Middle East: aside from the above, Mubarak doesn’t survive the year.

Domestic: no changes in policies except cosmetic

’08 Presidential contenders: The Obamas will hog the spotlight like Howard Dean, to disrupt the primary process until the 1st primary.

National Security: Republicans will become more isolationist while the Democrats decide that Iraq now needs our help. They’ll call it “our Darfur” and, of course, argue that we have to get into the real Darfur.

Now, of course, I just love being wrong … let’s hope!


 
Written By: Jason Pappas
URL: http://libertyandculture.blogspot.com/
Okay, I did this without reading above comments (to preserve originality). If I duplicate — my apologies.

Iraq - Direction?
Bush will increase troops, and it will not work. Large portions of the Republican party will support pullout by the end of the year. Congress will not cut off funding, preferring to allow the albatross to hang around Bush’s neck.


Iran - Become nuke power? Will sanctions be enforced and if so to what effect? Iran won’t become a nuke power, but it will continue to go down that path. Sanctions will be piecemeal and irrelevant.


North Korea - Will they try to sell nukes? Outcome of 6 party talks?China invades.


Afghanistan - Heading toward collapse or will it survive the threat of a resurgent Taliban? Survives. Increases as a storyline if US begins to pull out of Iraq by year’s end.


China - Continue to grow economically or run into growth problems?Continues to grow.


Russia - Continue its drift toward totalitariansim? Why? Yes. Because Putin is a thug, and because democratic institutions never really took root.


Europe - Take steps to curb muslim immigration and influence? What? No.

Middle East - Any radical changes foreseen? Alliances? No. Perhaps a more explicit alignment of Sunni countries against Shiite countries.

Islam - Changes? Moderation? Increased radicalization? None, though there will be an argument to be made that increased radicalization has taken place.


Politics:

— International:


UN- UN able to enforce sanctions on Iran? Will it remain ineffective or will new Sec Gen be able to change that? Darfur? Somolia?See above. Ineffective.


Environment - Any movement in the international environmental movement? In what direction? The movement conmtinues to shift its focus to using lawsuits and NGOs to force policy shifts on global warming.


Economy - see the world economy growing, shrinking, stagnating? Why?America keeps the world economy afloat, though growth is largely stagnant.


— Domestic:


Immigration - Any answers this year? Bush team up with Dems? Fence?One of the few good things to come out of this year’s Congress is a deal that liberalizes immigration in return for some window-dressing on border security. The ladder sector of the Northern Mexican economy explodes.


Health Care - Any movement toward a more consumer oriented system or a single-payer government system? Stalemate, as Dems push for universal insurance, while Republicans counter with a Massachusetts-style system.


Social Security - Continue to ignore it or actually confront its problems? Depends what you mean. Bush tries to link a payroll tax increase to private accounts. It goes nowhere.


Environment - Any progress on environmental agenda?Whose agenda?


Congress - Predictions about the Democratic control of congress? Budget and Spending - More? Less? About the same? Laws, investigations and various other possibilities? Real ethics reform in Congress or lip service. Denizens of the lefty blogosphere who don’t remember politics pre-Bush are in for a rude awakening as the Dems struggle to keep their coalition together, even on seemingly simple issues. Spending increases. Investigations are a disappointment for the base. Ethics reform is better than expected.


Supreme Court - Any new nominees? How many and who? Chances of getting out of committee?Justice Souter retires. The seat stays open for at least a year as multiple nominees are shot down. A series of 4-4 non-decisions in the interim gives the Republicans increasing ammo, as the conservatives and independents are given a stark display of choice between unpopular decisions supported by the Left and popular ones by the Right. Sensing this, Dems eventually let a Souter-like stealth candidate get through.


’08 Presidential contenders - See anyone begin to emerge from the pack? Who?By the end of the year it is Giuliani-McCain, with Romney and Huckabee as second-tier candidates for Republicans and Obama-Edwards with Clinton and Vilsack as the second-tier candidates.


Economy - Growth, recession? Which sectors are going to be strong? Housing going to collapse? Mild growth, which the Left continues to demogogue. Housing collapses on the coasts.


National Security - Changes? Threats?There is a surprisingly large contingent in the Democratic party who renews the call for Defense spending cuts.


Blogging: Consolidation? Commercialization? Improvements? More of the same from last year. Increasing numbers of bloggers are subsumed into Time/Newsweek/USNews (see Sullivan/RCP) or as party apparatus (see Kos).

 
Written By: Sean
URL: http://www.myelectionanalysis.com
I like this prediction contest, even if it is more a contest about who can best predict what McQ will be thinking is happening in a year. I should say that I respect the willingness of Jon and McQ to look back and, in many cases, directly accept incorrect predictions they have made in the past. This is a rare level of humility and honesty among bloggers in general and conservative bloggers in particular.

Iraq: Assuming that Bush pursues a 10,000+ troop "surge", US casualties will exceed 3800 by the end of 2007, as a consequence of more troops being on corners and harder-to-secure locations in Baghdad and other cities. Iraqis who have fled to other Middle Eastern countries (such as Jordan and Syria) will begin facing unofficial but intentional pressure to return to Iraq, for fear of them beginning to cause political instability.

Long-shot prediction: A high ranking Iraqi official (Cabinet level or higher) will be either arrested for political corruption or assassinated.

Iran: Iran will not be able to develop a nuclear weapon within one year. Uranium enrichment will continue. Ahmadinejad’s popularity will continue to decline within the country, assuming that no US air strikes occur in critical parts of Iran.

North Korea: North Korea will not sell any nuclear weapons to any countries that do not already own them. The six-party talks will stall, although North Korea may be able to obtain additional "humanitarian aid".

Afghanistan: Opium exports will be higher than in 2006. Taliban will begin to purchase higher-level weaponry (RPGs and IEDs with shaped charges) in higher quantities. Warlords in non-southern religions will either begin to increase collaboration with Taliban elements or begin committing increasingly alarming human rights violations in order to reduce their presence. Fewer NATO troops will be present in December 2007 than December 2006. McQ will disagree with the Warlords prediction, altough there won’t be any solid evidence proving or disproving.

China: Will begin "greenwashing" campaign in preparation for resisting calls for climate change action.

Russia: Will not become more democratic, but there are few further transgressions against democratic institutions that Putin really needs to take in order to consolidate power. Putin searching for a way to remain in office for another term will be a major issue, but I don’t know how it will be resolved.

Europe: No steps to curb Muslim immigration.

Middle East: Middle Eastern opinion of America will decline even further as shown by polling.

Environment: Democrats in congress will introduce climate change legislation similar to the legislation passed in California, although somewhat weaker. It will pass or be filibustered in at least one house of congress.

Domestic Economy: A recession will be declared by December 2006

Social Security: No reform legislation will be seriously debated in Congress. Bush will not advance it as a major domestic issue.

Congress: Democrats will take steps to decrease the budget deficit and will produce tangible results. (I’m a little vague because I can’t remember exactly how the budget works and if one is even supposed to be introduced within the next year).

Supreme Court: No resignations. Predicting whether or not someone will die is inappropriate. If a death does occur and someone similar to Roberts or Alito is nominated, they will be blocked in the Judiciary committee by party line vote.

’08: Obama will announce his candidacy and will be considered the frontrunner in Iowa and New Hampshire by December 2007. He will be roughly tied in the polls with HRC in Nevada.
 
Written By: Badger
URL: http://
So I can’t predict Howard Dean will say something stupid? Ok, I guess I’ll play:

For lots of reasons, I have had a bad feeling that 2007 will see another terror attack carried out somewhere in the US. I don’t think it will be on the level of 9/11 or worse- I think we see something like a suicide bomber blowing up a bus in a metropolitan city. I PRAY that this one turns our wrong.


Immigration: Bush finds an issue he can work with the Dems on- and will do so. The phrase "path to citizenship" will get a lot of ink in 2007 while the words "fence" and "enforcement" drop off the MSM map

Global warming hysteria will grow but the 2007 hurricane season will be similar to this one

Congress: No formal impeachment, but lots and lots of adversarial "hearings" and investigations.

2008 Presidency: Get ready for the meme (already used here by our friend MK): if you don’t support Obama, you’re a racist! This will be text, subtext and footnote to all MSM stories about Obama once the race gets underway


 
Written By: shark
URL: http://
? Iraq - Direction?

The situation will muddle along in 2007. The surge will not work, but neither will Iraq fall into complete civil war. A new political coalition will take over in Iraq, but will only help the situation slightly.

? Iran - Become nuke power? Will sanctions be enforced and if so to what effect?

Sanctions will not be seriously enforced, but Iran’s economy will still be weak. Iran will not become a nuclear power in 2007.

* North Korea - Will they try to sell nukes? Outcome of 6 party talks?

There will be no outcome to six party talks. We will end 2007 with talks about continuing talks. There will be a raid on a North Korean vessel on the high seas. There will be more internal dissent in North Korea then in previous years.

? Afghanistan - Heading toward collapse or will it survive the threat of a resurgent Taliban?

Afghanistan will take a turn for the worse after western governments pressure the Afghan government to spray the poppy fields.

* China - Continue to grow economically or run into growth problems?

China will continue to grow strongly, but the renminbi will slowly appreciate against the US dollar, helping our exports slightly but not slowing their exports too much.

* Russia - Continue its drift toward totalitariansim? Why?

Russia will continue its drift to an authoritarian model, but not fully totalitarian. Think Mexico during the PRI years. But with more political killings.

? Europe - Take steps to curb muslim immigration and influence? What?

Europe will not take any direct steps to curb muslim immigration, but sentiment will move strongly against allowing Turkey to join the EU. Kosovo will remain a protectorate in 2007. Sarkozy becomes President of France.

? Middle East - Any radical changes foreseen? Alliances? * Islam - Changes? Moderation? Increased radicalization?

Turkey will invade northern Iraq in hot pursuit of PKK guerillas.





Politics:

— International:

? Environment - Any movement in the international environmental movement? In what direction?

Growing pressure for some sort of climate change program in the USA, but Europeans will also begin to call strongly for China and India to cut emissions as well.

* Economy - see the world economy growing, shrinking, stagnating? Why?

Asia will grow strongly. Europe will grow moderately. US growth will slow, and possibly have a slight recession.

— Domestic:

? Immigration - Any answers this year? Bush team up with Dems? Fence?

Amnesty, yes. No serious fence. The term “undocumented worker” used more and more by the MSM.

? Health Care - Any movement toward a more consumer oriented system or a single-payer government system?

Democrats will make noises, but keep this for the 2008 elections.

? Social Security - Continue to ignore it or actually confront its problems?

Democrats will make noises, but keep this for the 2008 elections. Their plan will be remarkably close to Bush’s plan, but include a watchdog agency to monitor wall street “abuse” of individual accounts.

* Environment - Any progress on environmental agenda?

* Congress - Predictions about the Democratic control of congress? Budget and Spending - More? Less? About the same? Laws, investigations and various other possibilities? Real ethics reform in Congress or lip service.

Democrats will resist going bananas until the end of 2007 when they will begin their “show trials.”


* Supreme Court - Any new nominees? How many and who? Chances of getting out of committee?

? ’08 Presidential contenders - See anyone begin to emerge from the pack? Who?

Obama will gain strength and will win the Democratic primary over Hillary Clinton.

* Economy - Growth, recession? Which sectors are going to be strong? Housing going to collapse?

* National Security - Changes? Threats?



Blogging: Consolidation? Commercialization? Improvements?

There will be a larger MSM scandal like Rathergate or the current AP Hussein kerfuffle.

 
Written By: Harun
URL: http://
Iraq, Iran, PRNK, et. al.?

Who cares.

The New Orleans Saints will win the Super Bowl, and dat’s dat dawlin’.

yours/
peter.
 
Written By: peter jackson
URL: www.liberalcapitalist.com
Hmmm, I seem to be very close to Sean’s predictions.
 
Written By: Harun
URL: http://
Hugo Chavez will succeed in developing a South American bloc opposed to the U.S. trading practices.
China will send warships into the Caribbean to "look after" its oil drilling interests.
George Bush will take no stand to prevent more communism in South America.
Canada will send a second warning to the US to leave Canadian territory in the northern passage opening up as a result of global warming.
 
Written By: kindlingman
URL: http://
Just noted a typo...
The only guarantee I can make you here, is that the current frontrunners, will be by this time next year
... should read....
The only guarantee I can make you here, is that the current frontrunners, will NOT be by this time next year
(replacing dropped word)

 
Written By: Bithead
URL: http://
well Saddam didnt make it to 2007. Guess that is one prediction down the tubes for me.
 
Written By: retired military
URL: http://
Iran already has nuclear weapons.
 
Written By: VRB
URL: http://hathor-sekhmet.blogspot.com
MY PREDICTIONS FOR 2007
POLITICS:


Major Pentagon and Homeland Security contract fraud investigations destroying major political careers in both parties, but mostly Republicans.

Iraq - US will not withdraw even though the death toll will reach 5000. Bush & Co. decide to leave the mess for the next administration.

Iran & Syria will just sit by and watch, waiting for the US to really shoot itself in the foot.

Israel - will stoke more internal civil war among the Palestinians; will continue target killings esp. among Lebanese & Palestinian moderate politicians, will continue to build more settlements, will complete the Apartheid wall.

China, Japan, Iran, Venzuela, and others will start to shift their US dollar reserves into Euros and Gold. Dollar will continue to weaken.

Cheney will have a heart attack, resign and Bush will appoint Romney as VP to enhance his running for the Republican nomination.

Americans begin to hear Democrats explain how much national health insurance we could have afforded in lieu of the $2 billion/month sunk in Iraq.

Democrats will propose tax changes that Bush will veto: 70% income tax on excessive incomes (over $10 million); National Intangibles Tax for all tax entities with net worth over $5.0 million; Eliminate the cap on Social Security taxes (now at $92K); Reduce the Social Security taxes by 5% on all incomes under $50,000; Propose a flat tax on Corporations eliminating the complicated corporate tax code, preferred treatment to certain industries, and save corporate America $billions in tax reporting costs.



Economy

Stock Market in the US will be flat to down 5% for 2007. Stock Markets in Europe and Asia will be up avg. 10% (this in US dollar terms).

A major hedge fund will collapse and shake a major wall street firm and/or bank. Fed will step in to keep things orderly. Most likely due to the sub-prime mortgage market which will see some major collapses.

House prices in Florida, California, Texas, Nevada and Georgia will fall at least 10%, foreclosures will rise to 50 year records.

No major movement in commodity prices.

M&A from private equity firms will continue to make headlines throughout the year.





 
Written By: Acetracy
URL: http://
Iraq - after the misnamed "surge" operation fails to quell the violence, Iraq will continue its downward spiral into chaos, drawing more and more attention from its neighbors. Some heretofore unknown scandal involving the Iraq war will be uncovered by Congressional investigations, causing support for it to collapse to the point that forces GWB to begin to withdraw U.S. troops, but he will refuse to get them all out otherwise we will have "lost" (~80,000 troops will remain at year end).
unlikely
Crazy prediction: the price of oil will collapse unexpectedly, which will cause numerous effects throughout the world, not all of them necessarily good in the short term. The collapse will be due to new fields, cheaper methods of pumping from older fields, speculators getting caught overlong in the market, and slowing demand as the global economy cools somewhat.
very likely
Russia - Continue its drift toward totalitariansim? Why?
Yes. As to why I would think that to be blatantly obvious; its centralized government is being threatened by freedom more so, even, than the Chinese at the moment. Totalitarianism is a knee jerk reaction for such governments.
That, plus the Russian mentality/culture is incapable of anything but despotism.
They need a cultural transplant.
Americans begin to hear Democrats explain how much national health insurance we could have afforded in lieu of the $2 billion/month sunk in Iraq.
and no one will care/nor believe them since there is no real correlation between the two policies, nor any indication that one would have been substituted for the other.
House prices in Florida, California, Texas, Nevada and Georgia will fall at least 10%, foreclosures will rise to 50 year records.
God, I hope so, I been waiting for a chance to make a killing in the real estate market, but this promised collapse just never seems to arrive.
 
Written By: kyle N
URL: http://impudent.blognation.us/blog
Only a couple:

Politics: "gridlock" will not produce the results that many in the libertarian and conservative world had hoped for or predicted. Bush will not use his veto pen very often but instead will make deals with the Democrats. All of those deals will boil down to trading tax increases for something Bush wants. The mainstream media will "shocked" at how well the Democrats and the Bush administration are getting along and compromising with each other. Presidential legacies are built one of 2 ways: winning wars or adding new and expansive government programs, which means taxes. Expect Social Security to "miraculously" saved by a tax increase.

Politics: By the end of 2007 it will be perfectly clear that there will be no viable presidential candidate that any self-respecting libertarian would ever vote for.

Economy: Barring some unforeseen external event that the Fed thinks it can fix with loose money, there will be no rate cuts in 2007. The economy will be moderately strong with no serious effects from the housing re-adjustment, although local bubble areas will feel more pain. But by mid-year the Fed will be puzzled by the fact that core inflation is still too high, the dollar is still weak and commodity prices are still high, if not accelerating at the rate they were in the last 3 years. Realizing that they didn’t tighten enough or quickly enough, by summer the Fed will start raising rates again. The Stock Market Top will coincide with the moment that the markets realize the Fed will have to start tightening again. The biggest correction will be in the Bond market which will have a dramatic sell-off, increasing real, long term interest rates, something that the last Fed tightening cycle couldn’t manage to do. Since the Bond Market will do most of the work of removing the liquidity it is unclear how much real tightening the Fed will have to do. How the Fed handles this action will determine if the economy goes into recession in 2008, which is due based on the post 1982 8-year cycle we seem to be on. I fully expect the Fed to over-tighten as a reaction to under-tightening, which is the history of that institution.

Iraq: Same as it ever was. Trying to force 3 groups of people, who absolutely hate each other, to live together peacefully is a fool’s game. 2 of the 3 groups the United States should want no part of anyway. That’s not a prediction, just commentary.

International Economics: Nobody is talking about the real estate bubble in China but it is much larger than anything in America and is truly built on government printed money. China has been building commercial real estate that nobody can use for many years now propped up by an insolvent financial system. A lot of China’s economy is a house of cards and if many around the world get their wish with the Yuan rising dramatically against the dollar, the house of cards comes down. The question is whether the Chinese can shore up their financial institutions before this happens. I’m not predicting this in 2007 necessarily, but when it happens it will go swiftly and a lot of money will magically disappear almost overnight. Good for the worldwide liquidity glut, but bad for the world economy.

 
Written By: DS
URL: http://
China will continue to grow in 2007 AND it will continue experiencing tremendous problems arising from that growth and from the lack of rural growth.
 
Written By: China Law Blog
URL: http://www.chinalawblog.com

 
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