Posted by: McQ on Tuesday, March 20, 2007 Yesterday, in an update to this post, I cited another poll which seemed to badly contradict the first poll I cited. Of course the first poll was fairly positive, finding more Iraqis than not thought life was better now than under Saddam. It's figures were based on interviews with 5,000 Iraqis. Comes the ABC/BBC poll which interviews 2,000 Iraqis and has almost the opposite finding. How, you ask, could that be? How could 58% say life is worse while the majority in the other poll said it was better? Well one way to get those results is to oversample the Sunni population which comprises 15% of Iraq's total population. You tell me - if you put a 35% Sunni sample in your poll do you suppose it might skew the results a bit (seeing as how the minority Sunnis ran Iraq under Saddam?). From page 37 of their poll document: Doctrine: 3/5/07[As an aside, the Kurdish population may be as high as 20% per the CIA Factbook, so it is possible they too are slightly underrepresented] Now, go back and reread their data with that percentage in mind. Interesting how the application of such a context changes everything, huh? (HT: Keith_Indy) UPDATE: Lance at A Second Hand Conjecture does some nice work analyzing the poll as well. |
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