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The Iraqi Poll from yesterday (update)
Posted by: McQ on Tuesday, March 20, 2007

Yesterday, in an update to this post, I cited another poll which seemed to badly contradict the first poll I cited. Of course the first poll was fairly positive, finding more Iraqis than not thought life was better now than under Saddam. It's figures were based on interviews with 5,000 Iraqis.

Comes the ABC/BBC poll which interviews 2,000 Iraqis and has almost the opposite finding. How, you ask, could that be? How could 58% say life is worse while the majority in the other poll said it was better?

Well one way to get those results is to oversample the Sunni population which comprises 15% of Iraq's total population. You tell me - if you put a 35% Sunni sample in your poll do you suppose it might skew the results a bit (seeing as how the minority Sunnis ran Iraq under Saddam?).

From page 37 of their poll document:
Doctrine: 3/5/07
Shiite Arab 47
Sunni Arab 35
Kurdish 15
Other 3
[As an aside, the Kurdish population may be as high as 20% per the CIA Factbook, so it is possible they too are slightly underrepresented]

Now, go back and reread their data with that percentage in mind. Interesting how the application of such a context changes everything, huh?

(HT: Keith_Indy)

UPDATE: Lance at A Second Hand Conjecture does some nice work analyzing the poll as well.
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Previous Comments to this Post 

"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics." Disraeli
Written By: James E. Fish
URL: http://
And that outcome wasn’t already predicted?

Written By: shark
URL: http://
I have a bunch more on this, as well as links to more detailed examinations here. Interestingly, even in the ABC poll only 35% of Iraqi’s want us to leave right now.
Written By: Lance
Well, in my scientific poll I’m only going to ask Kurds.

I wonder what result we would get if we polled gitmo detainees?
Written By: Don
URL: http://

The Sunnis who hate us should want us to stay. I bet a poll of 100% Sunnis would reveal that they hate us, Saddam was better, and they want us to stay.
Written By: Don
URL: http://
Interestingly, the poll results say you are not far off. Only 55% of Sunni’s want us to leave now.
Written By: Lance
Only 55% of Sunni’s want us to leave now.
I wonder how that compares to a poll of San Francisco . . .
Written By: Don
URL: http://
I wonder how that compares to a poll of San Francisco . . .
About the same
Written By: James E. Fish
URL: http://
Oh, I figured Sunnis in Iraq like America more than the people who live in San Francisco do.
Written By: Don
URL: http://

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