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Iran to set hostages free
Posted by: McQ on Wednesday, April 04, 2007

Filed under the category "believe it when you see it", especially when the promise is made by Amadinejad:
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has pardoned 15 British military personnel being held in Iranian custody and vowed to set them free shortly.

"I declare that the people of Iran and the government of Iran — in full power to place on trial the military people — to give amnesty and pardon to these 15 people and I announce their freedom and their return to the people of Britain," Ahmadinejad told a news conference.

The action was a goodwill gesture for the Iranian new year which began last week, he said. An Iranian diplomat in London told The Associated Press that the 15 would be handed over to the British Embassy in Tehran.

"They will go through some brief formalities and then they will go to the embassy," he said.
You know, and this is just me tossing this out, I can't help but wonder if this wasn't set up to allow Amadinejad to soften his international image by being magnanimous and releasing them instead of using his "full power" to try them on trumped up and false charges.

I mean, they knew the Brits weren't going to do anything, and it was a perfect opportunity, especially after getting the "confessions" on tape and exacting enough humiliation, to then show the world what a nice guy he really is.
 
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No doubt it was set up, but probably for more than just softening Iran’s image. It’s also feasible that the hard line Blair took was more than Iran expected as a response, and they decided that they couldn’t afford to drag this along at this point. It could also be, however, that Iran achieved something important to them. Watch to see if in the next couple weeks the five Iranian "diplomats" are released. There will be a denial of a linkage if that happens, but if it does, then that will be evidence that there really was a "quid pro quo."
 
Written By: Scott Erb
URL: http://faculty.umf.maine.edu/~erb/blog.htm
You know, and this is just me tossing this out, I can’t help but wonder if this wasn’t set up to allow Amadinejad to soften his international image by being magnanimous and releasing them instead of using his "full power" to try them on trumped up and false charges.

I mean, they knew the Brits weren’t going to do anything, and it was a perfect opportunity, especially after getting the confessions on tape, to show the world what a nice guy he really is.
Given the culture of the Mid East it seems to me that Ahmanutjob is not perceiving this incident as having softened his image. Just the opposite: He demonstrated to the world Iran’s power and Britain’s impotence. Once he proved who is the strong horse and who is the weak horse, he could end the whole show with a little magnanimous flourish.
 
Written By: Aldo
URL: http://
Ahmadinajad, the Mullas of Iran, whoever planned this are evil geniouses. They had this planned all along, the only question was how many days before the prophet Mohammad’s birthday (propellor beanie upon him) should the raid take place so as the broadcasting of the crisis would convince the world of Tony Blair’s ineptitude, and display to the western left that Iran is the more civilized and diplomatic party.
 
Written By: Jimmy the Dhimmi
URL: http://www.warning1938alert.ytmnd.com
Given the culture of the Mid East it seems to me that Ahmanutjob is not perceiving this incident as having softened his image. Just the opposite: He demonstrated to the world Iran’s power and Britain’s impotence. Once he proved who is the strong horse and who is the weak horse, he could end the whole show with a little magnanimous flourish.
I think this has two sides. One for internal/regional consumption and one for international consumption.

He has two different audiences with two different perspectives and this allows him to play to both of them.
 
Written By: McQ
URL: http://www.qando.net/blog
Question McQ - I guy I workout with is a former Marine intel officer. He told me yesterday we let the Iranian’s we found in Iraq go yesterday. Any news on that you have seen? If they were, it seems obvious they were related. I have not seen any news on it though...
 
Written By: meagain
URL: http://
The hostages have served their purpose, he has gotten about as much mileage from them as he could, and keeping them has reached the point of diminishing returns. They have confessed with no coercion, thus proving the British aggressively violated Iranian waters, and now he can magnanimously let them go with a stern warning. Mission accomplished; Great Britain(and the West) proven to be evil paper tigers and Iran shown to be an innocent victim of Western agression who is nevertheless powerful enough to defend itself yet merciful enough to forgive penitents.
 
Written By: timactual
URL: http://
sarcasm The guy’s a genius, obviously. Where can we join up. /sarcasm
 
Written By: vnjagvet
URL: http://www.yargb.blogspot.com
Go here to see Representative Pelosi in a symbolic bhurka.
 
Written By: notherbob2
URL: http://
This was a carefully orchestrated move to soften Iran’s/Ahmadinajad’s image in the International arena - I’m just not sure if people are buying it. It will be interesting to see what the sailors have to say when they get home.

In all probability, the sailors were treated well for the simple reason that they would report back home of how Ahmadinajad isn’t a such a bad guy.

Diabolical indeed.
 
Written By: Derek
URL: http://
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has pardoned 15 British military personnel being held in Iranian custody and vowed to set them free shortly
I’d like to congratulate Iran on not only humiliating Britain, but on also getting whatever backroom concession and /or benefit Blair probably agreed to give up
 
Written By: shark
URL: http://
The deal was brokered by Bill Clinton who promised Amadinejad he would send Monica and her kneepads to Teheran
 
Written By: James E. Fish
URL: http://faroutfishfiles.blogspot.com/
Speculate all you want..... but none of you understand the internal machinations of the Iranians...........
They planned this .......this was done because of.......
speculate away................. craziness defies reason..........even of super minds...........
Anyone have anything concrete to back up their statements?
 
Written By: darohu
URL: http://
The deal was brokered by Bill Clinton who promised Amadinejad he would send Monica and her kneepads to Teheran
Lame.......but have fun.........
 
Written By: darohu
URL: http://
As a side-note, letting go the Iranian soldiers we’ve captured in Iraq would actually be -continuing- the trend, not breaking it. We also let Brig. Gen. Mohsen Chirazi and Col. Abu Amad Davari go last year, despite both being very high-ranking Qods Force officers. As for the -other- military/technical advisors from Qods Force we’ve captured, the tendency of certain people here and elsewhere to refer to them as "diplomats" is a truly stunning display of chutzpah, since they were never accredited and the office in Irbil was never established as even a partial consulate. Add to that the fact that all these diplomats just -happen- to be senior Qods Force officers (again), the unit within the IRGC whose specific mandate is organizing, training, and equipping Islamic militant and/or terrorist groups...
 
Written By: Lysenko
URL: http://
Cfredit where credit is due: Professor Erb seems to be right on here today. Broken watch simile.
 
Written By: notherbob2
URL: http://
Great. Now if they would just set the 70 million Iranians free.
 
Written By: TallDave
URL: http://semirandomramblings.blogspot.com
Anyone heard anything about the American who went missing in the last 24-28 hours in Iran?
 
Written By: Scott
URL: http://
Anyone have anything concrete to back up their statements?
did you grow up during the cold war? If you did, you’d understand the speculation on the motiviations. IE, nothing is done by accident, and this wasn’t an opportunity looking for a plan, this was a plan waiting for an opportunity.

This has all the necessary hallmarks of brinkmanship on it. Just wait till
they have nukes to skate with.
 
Written By: looker
URL: http://
I don’t think this was planned.

From Kevin Drum:

ACTIONAL POLITICS IN IRAN....I don’t have any idea whether this reporting is accurate, but what the heck. Here’s what the London Times says about the Iranian hostage crisis:

According to an Iranian military source, the commander of the Revolutionary Guards has called for them to be freed.

Major-General Yahya Rahim Safavi is said to have told the country’s Supreme National Security Council on Friday that the situation was "getting out of control" and urged its members to consider the immediate release of the prisoners to defuse tension in the Gulf.

However, Safavi’s intervention was reportedly denounced by another senior general at a meeting of high-ranking commanders yesterday.

Yadollah Javani, the head of the Revolutionary Guards’ political bureau, was said to have accused him of weakness and "liberal tendencies". Javani is said to have demanded that the prisoners be put on trial.

....Iranian military sources said the Supreme National Security Council had concluded on Friday evening that Ayatollah Khamenei, the supreme leader, should order the release of the British naval personnel on Safavi’s advice.

However, according to one account, which could not be confirmed, Javani described Safavi’s ############## as tantamount to treason.



There are people in Iran who want to pick a fight with us and people who don’t. Along with, of course, a wide variety who can’t be pinned down to either one of those positions.

Taking the Brits was a) a kick in the pants to hurry the Brits out of Iraq
b) a warning shot to the U.S. about nabbing further Iranians
c) potentially going to explode in Iran’s face and create a cassus belli for military action that they’re expecting anyway.

You know, for those who are really, seriously, fanatically worried about Iran should be glad to have us out of Iraq, or at least reduced. We’re in a Chinese finger trap with Iran. If they do anything too nasty, we’ll bomb them. If we bomb them, they will collapse what’s left of our position in Iraq.

That’s a genuine lose-lose situation, and that’s what’s keeping Iran in line here.

This was still a stupid idea on the part of its initators. Hostage-taking rarely deters a military response.
 
Written By: glasnost
URL: http://
"If we bomb them, they will collapse what’s left of our position in Iraq"

Huh? Our positions in Iraq aren’t exactly being overrun by insurgents and militias. At worst for us, they can maybe set off a few more IEDs. At worst for them, we annihilate Iran’s military and maybe seize their oil export facilities.
 
Written By: TallDave
URL: http://semirandomramblings.blogspot.com
—Just wait till they have nukes to skate with.—

"More Bombs Go Off In Tel Aviv, New York; Iranians Deny Connection"
 
Written By: TallDave
URL: http://semirandomramblings.blogspot.com
I don’t think this was planned.
Heh, yeah, maybe not by the people who don’t want to pick a fight with us.

What about the ones who do.
Big country, lot’s of generals, some of whom have plans that might surprise others. Why, I bet Hussein and Khadafi never once mentioned their plans to overthrow their government to their government. Do you suppose Stauffenberg
asked der Fuhrer where he could put his briefcase?

Am I to believe then that by virtue of a source not knowing about the plan that there was necessarily no plan?

Heh, yeah.
Bear in mind at the beginning of February, a busload of these Revolutionary guards got a quick trip to Allah by exploding bus. Could be local terrorists, could be local allies too.
 
Written By: looker
URL: http://
Go here for a pretty good refutation of my earlier critical comment about Representative Pelosi. Now that’s a SMART liberal.
 
Written By: notherbob2
URL: http://
Oh, they will be released.

The question is how much Neville Chamberlain, er, Tony Blair, paid in appeasement dollars to get them released.

 
Written By: Simon Lazarus
URL: http://
There are people in Iran who want to pick a fight with us and people who don’t. Along with, of course, a wide variety who can’t be pinned down to either one of those positions.
Failure of you to note that the heads of the govt. are among the pro-fight crowd...
 
Written By: shark
URL: http://
Well...I don’t want to upset anyone with a reality check Shark.

Just because taking and holding Western hostages for Yabbadabbadoijad is as old hat as drunken legislating is to Ted Kennedy is no reason to get anyone miffed, ya know?
 
Written By: looker
URL: http://
Our positions in Iraq aren’t exactly being overrun by insurgents and militias.

We’re losing 1000 casualties a year almost entirely from 20-25% of the population over 30-40% of the territory. Expand that to 80% of the population and territory and watch the results. That’s why we spared Al-Sadr to begin with.

The only quantifiable success of the vaunted surge to begin with has not been from any real military success against the Sunnis, but a political agreement from the Shiites in Baghdad to quiet down against their fellow citizens. Bombing Iran would wipe away the U.S. position in Iraq like a bad dream. Not through military victory, but through a Tet-offensive redux of tactical humiliations, severe casualty spiking, and the advent of total sectarian war.
 
Written By: glasnost
URL: http://
We’re losing 1000 casualties a year almost entirely from 20-25% of the population over 30-40% of the territory. Expand that to 80% of the population and territory and watch the results
That falsely assumes that the other 80% of the country is the same as the problematic 20-25%, which isn’t the case.

Error.....or dishonesty?
 
Written By: shark
URL: http://
through a Tet-offensive redux of tactical humiliations
You are an idiot. Done with you.
 
Written By: Mark A. Flacy
URL: http://
Oh, they will be released.

The question is how much Neville Chamberlain, er, Tony Blair, paid in appeasement dollars to get them released.

 
Written By: Simon Lazarus
URL: http://
So what’s the news on the "British hostages" ?

The ones that the British are holding. LOL
 
Written By: Neo
URL: http://
Windsor exports manufacturer and exporter of - agricultural disc, plough, fingers, blades, boulons, spacer reel casting, springs, cutting bar assembly, agricultural harrow disc, agricultural harrow blades, harrow disk blades, agricultural harrow disc manufacturers, agricultural harrow blades manufacturers, agricultural harrow disc exporters, agricultural harrow blades exporters, agricultural harrow disc.
 
Written By: windsor
URL: http://www.discplough.com

 
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