http://www.qando.net/ - Impeachment: Political calculation based on polling

This morning on ABC’s This Week, House Judiciary Committee Chairman John Conyers (D-MI) highlighted the new American Research Group poll showing that nearly half of Americans want the House of Representatives to begin impeachment proceedings against President Bush, and 54 percent favor impeachment hearings for Vice President Cheney.

ABC’s George Stephanopoulos asked Conyers today about new reports that the White House will refuse new congressional requests for documents about the U.S. Attorney firings.

Conyers decried the administration’s stonewalling, adding, “We’re hoping that as the cries for the removal of both Cheney and Bush now reach 46 percent and 58 percent [sic - 54 percent], respectively, for impeachment that we could begin to become a little bit more cooperative, if not amicable, in trying to get to the truth of these matters.”

Regardless of claims to the contrary, Washington politicians are risk averse and, with the advent of polling, have used them as bellwethers for making decisions on how to act. You just don't usually here that little truth advertised as with
Rep Conyers and impeachment.

And, in this case, it is actually attractive if you can get a Bush/Cheney two-fer. Not that I actually think this is going anywhere, but it certainly is interesting to watch impeachment crawl back on the table.

As to the poll, question one about impeachment was:

Do you favor or oppose the US House of Representatives beginning impeachment proceedings against President George W. Bush?

Keep in mind that 38% of those polled identified themselves as Democrats while only 29% identified themselves as Republicans. As it turns out, only 45% approve while 46% disapprove. Otoh, the VP doesn't do as well:

Do you favor or oppose the US House of Representatives beginning impeachment proceedings against Vice President Dick Cheney?

Results: A 54% for, 40% against.

Now, for those like Conyers, that's blood in the water and we all know how sharks react to that. But think about it - they get serious about impeaching Cheney and what does he do? He cites his health, resigns and Bush appoints a new VP (possibly among the present presidential candidates) and the Dems end up with Cheney gone and, worst case for them, someone running for president with much more political visibility (and the ability to claim some executive experience if necessary).

The bottom line, no matter what the poll numbers say, it's probably not a good idea to go after the VP, given the law of unintended consequences and the way it seems to end up biting political calculations such as this right in the rear end. But the leftosphere sure is having fun fantasizing about it.

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...worst case for them, someone running for president with much more political visibility (and the ability to claim some executive experience if necessary).

Wouldn’t such visibility come at the price of being closely aligned with this administration?

Written By: Grotius
URL: http://

Wouldn’t such visibility come at the price of being closely aligned with this administration?

Oh sure. That isn’t all bad for some. For McCain or one of the lesser candidates, they might trade that for more visibility and count on their ability to distance themselves from decisions made prior to their assumption of office. The front runners would probably avoid it like the plague.

Written By: McQ
URL: http://www.qando.net/blog

Oh-OOOOH, Cheney resigns and Dubya appoints RON PAUL! Oh the irony!

Written By: Joe
URL: http://

The poll also was conducted over July 4. In general, polling over holidays is considered taboo amongst pollsters, since you get a distorted sample. I’m guessing the President’s most ardent supporters were doing something other than sitting by their phone waiting for ARG to call on that day.

I’m actually surprised that ARG made a mistake like that.

Written By: Sean
URL: http://www.myelectionanalysis.com

Oh-OOOOH, Cheney resigns and Dubya appoints RON PAUL! Oh the irony!

He’s Constitutionally barred from nominating anyone from Texas to the VP slot. But it was an interesting thought.

Written By: Steverino
URL: http://steverino.journalspace.com/

Actually I think the constitutional prohibition is on electing a President and VP from the same state. Still, Bush would appoint either Condi Rice or his dad. Starting with his selection of Cheney in the first place (whom he had initially selected to find a VP candidate), if Bush has demonstrated anything regarding appointments it’s that he’s about as lazy as possible with them.

yours/
peter.

Written By: peter jackson
URL: www.liberalcapitalist.com

I think Peter’s right. It’s not that the Constitution bars a POTUS & VP from being from the same state: it’s just that the state’s Electoral votes wouldn’t count. (So 2 Texans would never run together because you wouldn’t want to give up those votes. 2 Vermonters, OTOH, wouldn’t really care as much.)

Written By: SaveFarris
URL: http://

I’ll concede Peter’s probably right on this. Amendment 25 didn’t say anything on the qualifications of a VP nominated this way. However, since the new VP must be approved by a majority in both houses, don’t count on a Presidential candidate getting a boost this way.

Written By: steverino
URL: http://steverino.journalspace.com/

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