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War support inches up per NYT/CBS poll
Posted by: McQ on Monday, July 23, 2007

Interesting results:
In a New York Times/CBS News poll conducted over the weekend, 42 percent of Americans said taking military action in Iraq was the right thing to do, while 51 percent said the United States should have stayed out of Iraq.

Support had been at all time low in May, when only 35 percent of Americans said the United States’ involvement in Iraq was the right thing and 61 percent said the United States should have stayed out.
Anyone want to take a wag at why there's a 10 point drop in the latter category since May?
 
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How many of those 61% or even 51% don’t give a rats ass about whether invading Iraq was right or wrong, but are upset it isn’t a spectacular success?

I bet that extra 10% is only a small part of that group.
 
Written By: jpm100
URL: http://
How many of those 61% or even 51% don’t give a rats ass about whether invading Iraq was right or wrong, but are upset it isn’t a spectacular success?
I agree. I’ve always said that the make up of that percentage was a lot more complex than "end the war now" and probably had a good percentage of those who are unhappy we haven’t nuked the whole place and come home.
 
Written By: McQ
URL: http://www.qando.net/blog
This is a poll. Don’t ignore the possibility of different samples and statistical error.

From www.pollingreport.com for Newsweek’s polling (was military action in Iraq the right thing):
right not right unsure
7/11-12/07: 42 53 5
12/6-7/06 39 53 8
11/9-10/06 41 54 5
10/26-27/06 43 49 8

This shows stable results in line with the current poll. This suggests to me that May’s low numbers of support was probably a statistical error, and belief it was the right thing has stayed pretty steady since August 2006 (when it went up to 49%). Conversely, there may have been a downward tick earlier this year which the Newsweek poll didn’t catch because apparently they didn’t poll since December. In that case the "surge" might be success in regaining some lost support.

Gallup’s poll is interesting too:

(same question except ’made a mistake or not made a mistake were the options)
mistake not mistake unsure
7/6-8/07 62 36 2
6/1-3/07 56 40 4
5/4-6/07 58 40 2
4/13-15/07 57 41 2

Here support has been steady at about 40% and opposition just under 60% until the most recent poll, about a week and a half ago. Comparing the polls, I’d say it’s a good bet that roughly 40% think the war was not a mistake, and about 57% think it was, and that this has remained relatively consistent.
 
Written By: Scott Erb
URL: http://faculty.umf.maine.edu/~erb/blog.htm
In a New York Times/CBS News poll conducted over the weekend, 42 percent of Americans said taking military action in Iraq was the right thing to do, while 51 percent said the United States should have stayed out of Iraq.

Support had been at all time low in May, when only 35 percent of Americans said the United States’ involvement in Iraq was the right thing and 61 percent said the United States should have stayed out.
Anyone want to take a wag at why there’s a 10 point drop in the latter category since May?
Did NYT/CBS dub this "the hindsight poll"?

Maybe they can poll about other stuff from years ago next...
 
Written By: shark
URL: http://
Don’t ignore the possibility of different samples and statistical error.
Support must be higher than ever if the MSM couldn’t find a way to get the numbers any lower than that.
 
Written By: jows
URL: http://
This is a poll. Don’t ignore the possibility of different samples and statistical error.
Why do I get the feeling that this is not an argument you’d be making of the numbers swing the other way by exactly the same amount?

 
Written By: Bithead
URL: http://bitsblog.florack.us
I’m just waiting to hear about the "increasingly popular war." I’m sure that will pop up in the MSM any time now.

Sadly, polls drive policy. That’s why the media is much more powerful than they should be.

Those asking the questions can get any statistical response they want, really, depending on how they qualify the question, because most of the people being polled don’t follow the news enough to have an informed opinion, so any data they gather from the phrasing of the question itself has an outsized impact on the statistics of the responses.
 
Written By: TallDave
URL: http://www.deanesmay.com
Why do I get the feeling that this is not an argument you’d be making of the numbers swing the other way by exactly the same amount?
Because you assume others are as driven by politics as you. Did you read my comparison with other polls asking similar questions? I not only asked the question but looked for data to try to answer it. You ignored that.
 
Written By: Scott Erb
URL: http://faculty.umf.maine.edu/~erb/blog.htm

 
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